Listen: Bullish on AI, Bullish on Self-Driving, But Apprehensive About OpenAI & Tesla (with Jon McNeill)

The ServiceTitan IPO has been an unexpected bright spot as 2024 comes to a close.On this year’s final episode of the Newcomer Podcast, we discuss what other startups might follow in ServiceTitan’s footsteps next year. Eric defends the controversial ratchet provision in its last funding round. And we dig into Alphabet’s big week. We focus on startups on this show, but this week was a good reminder that the big tech firms like Alphabet and Meta can still turn out impressive moonshot technology from their research labs. We’re bullish on a couple emerging venture capital firms — Laude Ventures and Dimension — who just closed big new funds. The megafunds may be sucking up the majority of LP dollars, but firms with a clear thesis and a standout team of high performers can still shine in this market. Give it a listen.Chapters:00:00 — Reflections ahead of the new year 05:02 — ServiceTitan’s IPO and Market Sentiment10:00 — Alphabet’s Wins and the AI landscape15:08 — The State of Quantum Computing19:58 — Emerging Venture Capital Trends and Final ThoughtsEpisode produced by Christopher Gates Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe

After a brief hiatus, the Newcomer podcast is back! Madeline Renbarger has rejoined me as my co-host to help break down all of the news across venture capital and startups. This week, we’re kicking off with a massive $693 million chip deal and Google’s huge quantum computing breakthroughs, in news that feels like flashes of Silicon Valley returning to its “silicon” roots. Still, some of this tech feels a bit too early to be exciting for a venture-backable model. We also dig into the personnel shake-ups across the major multi-stage funds, including Brian Singerman’s step back from Founders Fund last week. Lightspeed also saw partners exit as part of a consumer investing reshuffle. And just this morning after recording, Lux Capital’s Bilal Zuberi announced on X that he was leaving to “embark on a new chapter.” We’re excited for you to listen. Episode produced by Christopher GatesBrought to you by BrexBrex knows runway is everything for venture-backed startups, so they built a banking solution that helps them take every dollar further. Unlike traditional banking solutions, Brex has no minimums and gives startups access to 20x the standard FDIC protection via program banks.Plus, startups can earn industry-leading yield from their first dollar — while being able to access their funds anytime. If you want to make sure your portfolio companies have a place to save, spend, and grow their capital, check out Brex here.Chapters 00:00 - Intro 01:06 - Tenstorrent’s $693 million Series D 04:44 - Google’s Quantum Computing Breakthrough06:42 - Lightspeed’s Consumer Investing Re-org09:24 - Brian Singerman Steps Back and Founders Fund’s Roster14:08 - Mega-funds in Transition and Tech’s Trump Positioning 20:19 - Conclusion and Future Discussions Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe

I’ve been spending some of the afternoon chatting with OpenAI’s now fully released o1. So far, I don’t know that it feels like the super intelligent ChatGPT 5 that we’ve all fantasized about — but it’s smart and sophisticated. The new model helped me to game out potential stories and talk through problems. And of course it wrote me a poem and told me a couple dad jokes.It looks like the biggest improvement in the news model may be in math and coding, where OpenAI is highlighting meaningful improvements over o1-preview.It will take some time to digest the new version of the model and see what it says about the pace of AI advancement. Before the latest update, Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I got behind our microphones to reflect on the Cerebral Valley AI Summit and give you some of our takeaways. (Max has already hooked up the advanced voice mode of ChatGPT to his iPhone action button. Good bye Siri, hello ChatGPT.)Give it a listen. Brought to you by BrexBrex knows runway is everything for venture-backed startups, so they built a banking solution that helps them take every dollar further. Unlike traditional banking solutions, Brex has no minimums and gives startups access to 20x the standard FDIC protection via program banks.Plus, startups can earn industry-leading yield from their first dollar — while being able to access their funds anytime. If you want to make sure your portfolio companies have a place to save, spend, and grow their capital, check out Brex here.00:00 — Cerebral Valley AI Summit Overview02:50 — Key Takeaways from Alexandr Wang's Talk05:46 — The Wall in AI Foundation Models08:57 — Dario Amodei’s Perspective on AI Progress12:13 — Investing in AI: Insights from Martin Casado15:06 — The Future of AI Agents and Voice Technology17:56 — The Role of AI in Gaming and User Interaction20:46 — AI in Enterprise: Trends and Predictions24:03 — Challenges in Robotics and Home Automation26:58 — Marissa Mayer on Google's Future in AI29:51 — Final Thoughts and Future Outlook Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe

If you get some downtime over the Thanksgiving holiday, catch up on everything that happened at the Cerebral Valley AI Summit last week. We’ve got videos of all of the talks on stage on our YouTube channel and are sharing my conversation with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei over our podcast feeds. Scale AI CEO Alexandr WangAndreessen Horowitz partner Martin CasadoLessons from This Year's $14B in Generative AI Enterprise Spending Databricks CEO Ali GhodsiBiology Applications of AITrain, Tune, or TurnkeyHow to Train Your RobotSpeak Easy: Voice Applications of AISunshine CEO Marissa MayerAnthropic CEO Dario AmodeiEmergent Behavior: Live Product Demos Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe

Cerebral Valley is tomorrow! I’ve been listening to old interviews, brainstorming with Claude and ChatGPT, and talking to investors to prep for my conversations with Dario Amodei, Martin Casado, and Alexandr Wang. We’ll be sharing those conversations here in the newsletter. Expect video highlights on our social media feeds, a detailed rundown of the biggest moments in the newsletter Thursday, and full-length conversations on our YouTube channel.To satiate your AI appetites until then, give a listen to the latest edition of the Cerebral Valley Podcast with my friends and co-hosts Max Child and James Wilsterman. You’ve listened to us assess whether startups are underrated or overrated and make our draft picks. Now we’re looking to the future. We asked Claude and ChatGPT o1 to make some predictions about what will happen in artificial intelligence over the next year. And then we took the over or under on those predictions.Brought to you by BrexBrex knows runway is everything for venture-backed startups, so they built a banking solution that helps them take every dollar further. Unlike traditional banking solutions, Brex has no minimums and gives startups access to 20x the standard FDIC protection via program banks.Plus, startups can earn industry-leading yield from their first dollar — while being able to access their funds anytime. If you want to make sure your portfolio companies have a place to save, spend, and grow their capital, check out Brex here.Chapters* 00:00 — Introduction to AI Predictions* 02:48 — Exploring Predictions for AI in 2025* 06:06 — AI Regulation in Healthcare* 08:53 — Self-Driving Cars and Tesla's Future* 12:04 — AI in News Media* 14:55 — AI-Generated Films and Entertainment* 17:53 — Anthropic’s Predictions and AI Co-Processors* 20:59 — AI in Pharmaceutical Development* 24:13 — International AI Treaties and Regulations* 26:47 — Comparing AI Models: ChatGPT vs. Claude* 30:06 — Future of AI and Human Systems* 32:46 — Conclusion and Reflections on AI Predictions Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe

This is probably my favorite episode of the year. We just updated our picks for our artificial intelligence startup fantasy draft. That means dropping startups whose star is fading and making new pickups. Last year, Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I drafted the most promising generative AI startups that had raised $100 million or more. In this latest episode, we make some hard choices: cutting loose startups who have lost our favor, cashing in on early acquisitions, and pickup up some new startups. In the process, we weigh in on the buzziest AI startups. Brought to you by BrexBrex knows runway is everything for venture-backed startups, so they built a banking solution that helps them take every dollar further. Unlike traditional banking solutions, Brex has no minimums and gives startups access to 20x the standard FDIC protection via program banks. Plus, startups can earn industry-leading yield from their first dollar — while being able to access their funds anytime. If you want to make sure your portfolio companies have a place to save, spend, and grow their capital, check out Brex here.Catching You Up on Last Year’s PicksTo catch you up: here’s how last year’s draft went down. It started off with me taking on a $75 billion handicap for the right to pick first and draft OpenAI. We proceeded from there in a snake draft with Max picking second and James picking third. Here were the five companies we each drafted last year.Last year’s picksEric* OpenAI* Inflection* Character.AI* Glean* Mistral AIMax* Databricks* Pinecone* Cohere* Modular* ImbueJames* Hugging Face* Anthropic* AI21 Labs* Replit* AdeptAltogether on this week’s episode we collectively dropped three companies, exited three, and picked up twelve new startups.I don’t want to spoil our picks so you’ll have to listen to the episode to find out what happened. (As a reminder, the goal here is to accumulate the most total value by November 1, 2028. We aren’t worried about the return on our investment just the final end state valuation.)We’d love for you to weigh in in the comments with your own seven startup picks and give us your feedback on what you think of our draft decisions. Give it a listen. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe

We’re back with a couple episodes of the Cerebral Valley Podcast leading up to our summit on November 20. I’m joined by my Cerebral Valley AI Summit co-hosts Max Child and James Wilsterman. On this episode, we started by talking about the thing on everyone’s minds — the election of Donald Trump and what it means for artificial intelligence. Then, at the 28 minute mark we debate whether Anthropic, Suno, Perplexity, Midjourney, and a bunch of other AI companies live up to the hype in a game of “overrated, underrated, or properly rated.” Episode produced by Christopher GatesTimestamps: * 00:00 — Initial reactions to the results* 06:16 — Energy policy under Trump* 09:25 — Will tariffs replace the CHIPS Act?* 12:23 — Regulation and AI policy in a new era* 21:52 — Black swans in AI and policy* 27:54 — Overrated, underrated, or properly rated? AI’s hype meterThe Cerebral Valley AI Summit on November 20 in SFWe’ll be hosting an elite group of AI startup founders, investors, and other senior executives on November 20 in San Francisco.Spots are extremely limited, but we always hold back a few spots for founders who are late to get the memo that they should join us. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe

We’re in the home stretch. Silicon Valley’s political nightmare could hopefully soon be over. In the latest episode of the Newcomer podcast, we dig into all of the tech industry’s burning political takes.There was Josh Wolfe’s endorsement waffling. Jeff Bezos’ editorial intervention. And the general sense that everyone is losing their minds leading up to what should be Trump’s last run at the presidency. Later in the episode, we break down General Catalyst’s massive fundraise haul and its transition into a “company.” We also discuss Stripe’s billion-dollar acquisition of Bridge.Episode produced by Christopher GatesTimestamps: 00:00 — Intro04:13 — The VC political divide09:27 — The Washington Post’s editorial debacle12:25 — General Catalyst raises $8B15:38 — Stripe acquires BridgeNote for our listeners: We’ll be back with a couple episodes of the Cerebral Valley Podcast starting next week, so stay tuned. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe

Newcomer turns four this week. On the podcast, Madeline talked with me about how it all began. When I made the decision to start Newcomer, the venture capital industry was in the beginnings of a record-breaking bull run. A lot has changed since then, for both venture and the media industry, but I’m excited about our growth at Newcomer and wanted to share a bit more about what’s next. Description Eric and Madeline discuss Newcomer’s revenue milestones, the growth of Newcomer over the past four years, and what’s next for the publication. They also focus on the downturn in the venture industry and how this will affect first-time fund managers. Produced by Christopher GatesChapters 00:00 — Introduction02:08 — Newcomer’s 4 Year Anniversary08:22 — Building out a media company in 2024 and what’s next15:46 — The venture downturn vs. new emerging funds22:02 — X-energy's $500 million raise22:42 — $100 million for Path Robotics Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe

DescriptionIn this episode, Eric Newcomer is joined by guest host Jon McNeill, a seasoned executive with experience at Lyft and Tesla who is now leading DVx Ventures. They discuss the bear case for OpenAI. The OpenAI discussion then leads into a closer look at the contrast between founder and manager modes before concluding with a discussion on Tesla’s advancements, or lack thereof, in self-driving technology. Produced by Christopher GatesChapters: 00:00 — Introduction03:27 — Bear case for OpenAI13:07 — Founder mode management17:20 — Tesla promises, but SpaceX delivers Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe