94: Why Is Mexico’s Economy Struggling — and Can It Turn Around?

The February 22, 2026 death of cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, head of Mexico’s powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), has reignited debate about security, governance, and the strength of Mexico’s organized crime institutions. In the days following the operation, cartel-linked violence spread across multiple states — underscoring both the reach of organized crime and the risks of confronting it. Tony Payan, director of the Baker Institute’s Claudio X. González Center for the United States and Mexico, joins Ambassador David Satterfield to examine what Oseguera’s death could mean for Mexico’s fight against organized crime and the evolving role of the United States in that effort. They discuss the extent of U.S. involvement and coordination in the operation, the political and security pressures facing President Claudia Sheinbaum as she intensifies the government’s campaign against cartels, and what this moment may signal for the future of U.S.–Mexico security cooperation. At the center of the conversation is a critical question: Will this operation strengthen the rule of law in Mexico — or simply trigger another cycle of violence? This conversation was recorded on February 26, 2026 Listen and subscribe on your favorite platform. Mentioned in this episode: Tony Payan, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan

Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner and home to a formidable industrial base. So why has its economy continued to underperform, with GDP growth of just 0.7 percent last year? Roberto Salinas-León, president of the Mexico Business Forum and director of the Atlas Network Initiatives for Latin America, joined “México Centered” host Tony Payan to discuss the structural challenges inhibiting Mexico’s economic growth and possible ways forward, from investor uncertainty to low productivity tied to weak public investment and a large informal sector. This conversation was recorded on February 17, 2026.  Featured: Roberto Salinas-León, Ph.D.: https://www.linkedin.com/in/roberto-salinasleon/ Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan  You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

The Mexican press has played a vital role in the democratization of Mexico — not just reflecting political transformations, but propelling them. That’s the history that Andrew Paxman, lays out in his new book “Mexican Watchdogs: The Rise of a Critical Press Since the 1980s.”   Paxman joined the “México Centered” podcast to discuss the various challenges to press freedom throughout modern Mexican history and what may lie ahead in the MORENA era, from the future of critical media to the growing role of the digital influencer.   Featured: Andrew Paxman, Ph.D., https://andrewpaxman.wordpress.com/about/about-me/    Mentioned in this episode: “Mexican Watchdogs: The Rise of a Critical Press Since the 1980s” This conversation was recorded on Jan. 12, 2026. More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan  You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

From the “Baker Briefing” podcast: A water crisis along the U.S.-Mexico border is growing. The 1944 Water Treaty has long guided how both nations share the Rio Grande and Colorado rivers, but climate change, drought, and growing demand are testing its limits. Guest host Tony Payan speaks with Rosario Sanchez, a senior research scientist at the Texas Water Resources Institute, and Ivonne Cruz, a research scholar at the Baker Institute, about how to rethink water cooperation for an age of scarcity — and what it will take to build a more resilient future for both countries. Featured guests: Ivonne Cruz, Ph.D., https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/ivonne-cruz Rosario Sanchez, Ph.D., https://twri.tamu.edu/rosario-sanchez/   Mentioned in this episode: Mexico Country Outlook 2026, Rice University’s Baker Institute, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/mexico-country-outlook-2026 More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan Follow Tony Payan on X (@PayanTony) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

Political cartoons serve as a powerful visual commentary on major figures, events, and issues. Paco Calderón, a cartoonist who has documented much of Mexico's political and social landscape, joined "México Centered" to discuss his work and approach. More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan Follow Tony Payan on X (@PayanTony) and LinkedIn. Follow @BakerInstMexico on X, LinkedIn, and Bluesky. Subscribe to “US-Mexico Update,” our monthly newsletter, at bakerinstitute.org/newsletters.

Each year, hundreds of thousands of cars are imported illegally into Mexico from the United States. These unregistered “chocolate cars” — a play on the word “chueco,” which means “crooked” in Spanish — not only crowd out the national light vehicle market, but often fail to meet pollution and safety standards and can be used in serious crimes. The used car industry in the U.S. is partially responsible for allowing the vehicles to enter Mexico at extremely low prices. But the Mexican government also contributes to the influx by occasionally legalizing their circulation. A regularization program for used imported vehicles was recently extended to 2026 in the final days of the Andrés Manuel López Obrador administration. Guillermo Rosales Zárate, executive director of the Mexican Association of Dealerships (AMDA) and Juan Vega Gómez, a senior researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), joined Tony Payan on “México Centered” to explore the chocolate car phenomenon and the black and gray markets that emerge along the U.S.-Mexico border in the absence of critical binational coordination. This conversation was recorded on July 22, 2025. Featured guests: Guillermo Rosales Zárate, https://www.linkedin.com/in/guillermo-rosales-zárate-20258b19a/  Juan Vega Gómez, https://www.juanvegagomez.com/  More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan Follow Tony Payan on X (@PayanTony) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.  

In this episode of “México Centered,” experts Isabella D’Alacio, John Lindsay-Poland, and Gerardo Álvarez join Tony to shed light on the dangerous flow of firearms from the U.S. into Mexico. They explore how criminal networks traffic powerful weapons across the border, the cultural and political obstacles to reform, and the ongoing efforts to curb the illegal arms trade. Tune in for an in-depth, urgent conversation on one of the most pressing bilateral issues facing the U.S. and Mexico.   Featured guests: Isabella D’Alacio, https://voicesforprogress.org/staff/isabella-dalacio/  John Lindsay Poland, https://www.johnlindsaypoland.com/ Gerardo Álvarez, https://www.mucd.org.mx/conocenos/    This episode was recorded on May 21, 2025. More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan Follow Tony Payan on X (@PayanTony) and LinkedIn. Follow @BakerInstMexico on X, LinkedIn, and Bluesky. Subscribe to “US-Mexico Update,” our monthly newsletter, at bakerinstitute.org/newsletters.

Tony Payan joined David Satterfield, director of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and host of the “Baker Briefing” podcast, to discuss the challenges Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is facing — both domestically and in its relationship with the United States.   This conversation was recorded on May 14, 2025. You can subscribe to “Baker Briefing” wherever you get your podcasts. More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan Follow Tony Payan on X (@PayanTony) and LinkedIn. Learn more about our annual Mexico Country Outlook report and conference, happening Oct. 16, 2025, at Rice University: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/mco  You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

On April 24, 2025, we hosted the inaugural webinar of our “Binational Dialogues” series, titled “Mexico’s Economy Today” and featuring José Antonio Meade Kuribreña. Meade offered an in-depth analysis of the current state of Mexico’s economy, followed by a thoughtful conversation with Tony Payan, director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico.  Meade is a Mexican politician, economist, lawyer, diplomat, and former presidential candidate. Between 2011 and 2017, he held several high-level Cabinet positions, including secretary of foreign affairs, secretary of social development, secretary of energy, and twice secretary of finance and public credit. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Yale University, an economics degree from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), and a law degree from the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM). Featured guests: José Antonio Meade Kuribreña, Ph.D., https://www.weforum.org/people/jose-antonio-meade-kuribrena/ More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan Follow Tony Payan on X (@PayanTony) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.    

Tony Payan, director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico, is joined by Kevin Koym, founder and CEO of Tech Ranch, and Ana Victoria Gutiérrez, ecosystem intelligence leader at Startup Chihuahua. Together, they explore how strategic investment and community collaboration are driving the growth of tech entrepreneurship in Chihuahua.   Featured guests: Ana Victoria Gutiérrez, https://www.linkedin.com/in/av-gutierrez/ Kevin Koym, https://www.kevinkoym.com/   This conversation was recorded on April 15, 2025.   More about Tony Payan, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan Follow Tony Payan on X (@PayanTony) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute and @BakerInstMexico on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.