Russia’s Power Play In Central Asia

We know what U.S. policy for Central Asia was when Donald Trump was president the first time. But the region has changed significantly in the four years since. U.S. forces are no longer in Afghanistan, the relationships between Central Asia’s governments and Russia have shifted since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, trade routes have expanded, and there are new issues like energy resources and access to critical minerals. Joining host Bruce Pannier to discuss U.S.-Central Asian ties under the second Trump administration are guests Bakyt Beshimov, a former member of Kyrgyzstan’s parliament and former Kyrgyz ambassador to the OSCE and to India who now teaches at Northeastern University in Boston; Richard Hoagland of the Washington-based Caspian Policy Center, who previously served as U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and charge d’affaires to Turkmenistan; and Eric Rudenshiold, also of the Washington-based Caspian Policy Center, who served as director for Central Asia in the National Security Council under both Trump and President Joe Biden.

This year’s edition of the international 16 Days of Activism against Gender-Based Violence campaign got under way on November 25. While Central Asian authorities acknowledge that gender-based violence (GBV) has been a problem for years, a trio of studies on gender-related killings about to be published by UN Women Europe and Central Asia is expected to show the problem is getting worse. Joining host Bruce Pannier to discuss these questions are guests Khalida Azhigulova, a Kazakhstan-based lawyer and international consultant on the prevention of sexual exploitation and abuse; and contributors to the UN studies Svetlana Dzardanova, human rights and corruption researcher at Freedom for Eurasia, currently located in Kyrgyzstan; and Niginakhon Saida, a researcher, educator, and freelance journalist from Uzbekistan specializing in Islam, education, and gender issues in Central Asia.

China’s presence in Central Asia has been growing for 30 years. China is now a leading trade and security partner, foreign investor, and source of everyday goods available in markets and bazaars across Central Asia. The Central Asia Barometer recently released the results of a survey conducted over the course of several years that analyzes the opinions of Central Asian citizens toward various spheres of interaction with China, including the presence of Chinese workers in Central Asia. The results are surprisingly positive. Joining host Bruce Pannier are Kasiet Ysmanova, director of the Central Asia Barometer and a survey research practitioner based in Bishkek; Frank Maracchione, a postdoctoral research associate at the School of Politics and International Relations, University of Kent, working on Sinophobia in the Global South; and Irna Hofman, a rural sociologist specializing in social and agrarian change in Central Asia who has followed China's presence in rural Tajikistan ethnographically for some 15 years.

Tajik opposition activist Dilmurod Ergashev arrived in Tajikistan on November 7, after he was deported from Germany, where he had been seeking asylum since 2011. Ergashev was immediately arrested on his return by Tajik authorities; he hasn't been heard from since. Ergashev is one of several Central Asian opposition activists sent back to their homelands; dozens more continue to pursue asylum claims in Europe. Why, despite knowing the repressive tendencies of Central Asian governments and being party to international agreements against “refoulement,” do some European countries still deport people to countries where returnees are routinely imprisoned? Joining host Bruce Pannier to discuss this are Leila Seiitbek, a lawyer and chairwoman of the NGO Freedom for Eurasia, and Hugh Williamson, the Europe and Central Asia director for Human Rights Watch.

The Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs just released a detailed report on military and security forces in Tajikistan. The comprehensive work examines the 30-year history of the Tajik defense forces, their mission and composition, how they are deployed, and the role of foreign countries in training and equipping Tajik forces. Joining host Bruce Pannier to discuss the report are two of its authors: Michael Hilliard, the host of the Redline podcast, which deals with military and security matters around the world; and Derek Bisaccio, Forecast International’s lead analyst for international defense markets, specializing in the defense trade in Eurasia and the Middle East.

Russian officials and celebrities have become increasingly critical of the countries and peoples of Central Asia since the Kremlin launched its full-scale war on Ukraine in February 2022 -- and patience is wearing thin in the region. Central Asians are pushing back against Russian lecturing, racist comments, and mistreatment of migrant laborers. Joining host Bruce Pannier to discuss Central Asia’s sharp responses to Russia’s unwanted advice and strict rules for migrants are Edward Lemon, president of the Washington-based Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, and Fran Olmos, a senior researcher in Central Asian affairs at Spain’s GEOPOL 21 Center and research fellow at the London-based Foreign Policy Center.

Kazakhs will vote on October 6 in a national referendum to authorize construction of a nuclear power plant. In recent winters, Kazakhstan has experienced severe power shortages, and Kazakh officials assert that nuclear power could help fill the gap. People remember, however, that 456 nuclear weapons were detonated in northeastern Kazakhstan between 1949 and 1989 as part of the Soviet Union’s testing program. The byproducts of these tests continue to affect public health in the region, and many people in Kazakhstan are not pleased with the prospect of nuclear power. Joining host Bruce Pannier to discuss the pros, cons, and controversy of Kazakhstan’s proposed nuclear power plant are guests Togzhan Kassenova, author of the widely acclaimed book Atomic Steppe: How Kazakhstan Gave Up The Bomb; Aya Renaud, an editor at RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service, known locally as Azattyq; and Darkhan Umirbekov, digital editor at Azattyq, who is based in Astana.

Russia’s longtime influence in Central Asia seemed to fade after the launch of its full-scale war on Ukraine in February 2022, as other countries pursued stronger relations with Central Asian states and active roles in lucrative projects. The Kremlin noticed and has countered with its own initiatives, of which the most binding may be a series of recent agreements that will increase some Central Asian states’ dependence on Russia for energy resources. Joining host Bruce Pannier to look at Russia’s counter-campaign to preserve its strong position in Central Asia are guests Assel Tutumlu, a lecturer at the International Relations and Political Science Department at the Near East University in Cyprus; Francis Olmos, a senior researcher in Central Asian affairs at Spain’s GEOPOL 21 Center and research fellow at the London-based Foreign Policy Centre; and Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

Racialization is the process of viewing a specific people with preconceived notions about them. In Russia, non-Russians -- particularly people from Asia or the South Caucasus -- have long been targets of racialization. The problem is especially acute in today’s Russia, where many Russians openly express negative or derogatory views of these peoples, making life extremely difficult for Central Asians who live or work in the country. Joining host Bruce Pannier to look at the impact of racialization and ethnic discrimination on Central Asians in Russia are guests Nodira Abdulloeva, an advocate for the rights of migrant workers in Russia; sociologist and University of Amsterdam postdoctoral researcher Nodira Kholmatova; and Tolkun Umaraliev, chief editor for RFE/RL’s Migrant Unit and Ferghana Valley Bureau.

Russia’s historical legacy in Central Asia has come under increased scrutiny in the region since Russia launched its full-scale war in Ukraine. Many Russians, including officials, claim -- in some cases insist -- that Russia’s colonization of Central Asia was beneficial to the region. A growing number of people in Central Asia are coming to a different conclusion, as they reassess the years under Russian and Soviet rule and what Central Asia’s relationship with Russia should be going forward. Joining host Bruce Pannier to discuss this issue are guests Erica Marat, a professor of political science at the National Defense University in Washington and a Central Asia expert originally from Kyrgyzstan, Diana Kudaibergen, a political sociologist from Cambridge University who will be moving on to the University College of London this autumn, and Azamat Junisbai, a sociologist and professor at Pitzer College in Claremont, California. Both Kudaibergen and Junisbai are originally from Kazakhstan