Steve Kamin and Mark Sobel on the Outlook of Dollar Dominance

Kris Mitchener is a professor of economics at Santa Clara University and is an economic and monetary historian. In Kris's first appearance on the show, he discusses how he fell in love with building data sets out of old dusty archives, the origins and fall of bimetallism, the pros and cons of the gold standard, the problem of operating losses on the Fed's balance sheet, what truly anchors the price level, and much more.  Watch the full length video on our new YouTube Channel! Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on March 4th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:33 - Kris' Career Path 00:06:32 - What Is Bimetallism? 00:14:41 - The Gold Standard 00:28:55 - Disinflation Policies and Central Bank Finances 00:49:25 - What Anchors the Price Level 00:55:22 - Outro

Steve Kamin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and was previously the director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. Mark Sobel is the US chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum and is a veteran of the US Department of Treasury. Steve and Mark return to the show to discuss the status of dollar dominance, the future threats to dollar dominance, the role or lack thereof that stablecoins will play in dollar dominance, the new findings in the Treasury Foreign Exchange Report, the current state of tariffs, whether we are in a second China shock, and much more.   Watch the full length video on our new YouTube Channel! Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on March 5th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Steve Kamin on X: @Steven_Kamin Follow Mark Sobel on X: @Sobel_Mark Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:02:26 - Termites Eating Away at Dollar Dominance 00:16:52 - Future Threats to Dollar Dominance 00:19:47 - Stablecoins and Dollar Dominance 00:33:40 - Treasury Foreign Exchange Report 00:44:28 - Tariff Policy 00:53:25 - Second China Shock? 01:00:38 - Outro

Ruth Judson is a monetary economist, economic historian, and veteran of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. In Ruth's first appearance on the show she discusses her career at the Fed, field trips tracking counterfeit dollars around the global, how we know how much currency is held overseas, why money doesn't matter anymore, the problem with cashless societies, how to understand TIC data, the promise of dollar backed stablecoins, and much more. Watch the full length video on our new YouTube Channel! Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on March 4th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:13 - Ruth at the Fed 00:08:09 - Currency 00:31:29 - Counterfeits 00:39:00 - TIC Data and Safe Assets 00:44:18 - Dollar-Based Stablecoins 00:49:55 - Outro

Bill Nelson is a chief research officer and chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute. In Bill's 10th appearance on the show he discusses his infamous email list, the ratchet effect from QE, his congressional testimony, the BPI's Bank Treasurers Survey, how he thinks the Fed should shrink the balance sheet, whether the Fed is profitable, and much more.   Watch the full length video on our new YouTube Channel! Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on March 3rd, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:02:00 - Quantitative Easing Ratchet Effect 00:16:31 - Bill's Congressional Testimony 00:31:12 - BPI's Bank Treasurers Survey 00:37:37 - How To Shrink the Balance Sheet 00:48:44 - The Fed's Profits 00:54:50 - Outro

Subscribe to the new Macro Musings YouTube Channel! Neha Narula is the director of the Digital Currency Initiative which is based out of the Media Lab at MIT. Anders Brownworth is veteran software engineer in the crypto space and is a Senior Research Advisor at DCI. Daniel Aronoff is Research Affiliate in the MIT Department of Economics and a Collaborator at DCI. Neha, Anders, and Daniel join the show to discuss their work at DCI, the current state of stablecoins, their paper on the hidden plumbing of stablecoins, the basic mechanics of stablecoins, the technical and operational risks of stablecoins, the implications for the treasury market, interoperability between blockchains, and much more.   Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on February 27th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Neha Narula on X: @Neha Follow Anders Brownworth on X: @Anders94 Follow Daniel Aronoff on X: @DanAronoff Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:41 - Background of the Group 00:03:11 - Digital Currency Initiative 00:05:36 - State of Stablecoins 00:10:42 - Hidden Plumbing of Stablecoins 00:15:42 - Basic Mechanics of Stablecoins 00:26:07 - Technical and Operational Risks of Stablecoins 00:39:09 - Implications for the Treasury Market 00:48:18 - Business Model of Stablecoins 00:49:24 - Interoperability Between Blockchains 00:52:53 - What's the Deal with Tether? 00:56:23 - Outro

Subscribe to the new Macro Musings YouTube Channel! Jesús Fernández-Villaverde is a professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania. Jesús returns to the show to discuss his rise on X, how to frame global demographic decline, the three accelerants of demographic decline, the role of housing in family size, how AI will play a role in global demographics, what we know about AGI, the question of dollar dominance, and much more.  Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on February 20th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Jesús Fernández-Villaverde on X: @JesusFerna7026 Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:07:22 - Demographics 00:39:28 - Artificial Intelligence 00:54:07 - Currency Dominance 01:03:20 - Outro

Subscribe to the new Macro Musings YouTube Channel! Chris Meissner is a professor of economics at University of California at Davis and is the author of the recent book One from the Many: The Global Economy Since 1850. In Chris's first appearance on the podcast he discusses the historical bend towards greater globalization, how we should really define the global economy, the impact of the Great Financial Crisis on globalization and populism, the scope of globalization from the 1820's to today, the validity of the China Shock, the United States' current move away from globalization, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on February 19th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Chris Meissner on X: @CmicMeissner Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:50 - History Tends Toward Globalization 00:05:55 - What Is the Global Economy? 00:19:08 - Great Financial Crisis 00:22:15 - First Wave of Globalization: 1820–1914 00:29:42 - Interwar Period: 1918–1938 00:40:51 - Post-War Bretton Woods Arrangement 00:49:36 - The China Shock 00:55:40 - Detour from Globalization 00:59:44 - Outro

Subscribe to the new Macro Musings YouTube Channel! Raghuram Rajan is a finance professor at the University of Chicago and leads the Group of 30. Previously he was the chief economist at the IMF and the governor of the Reserve Bank of India. In Raghuram's first appearance on the show, he discusses his famous 2005 Jackson Hole speech, how he righted the ship on India's emerging economy, the consequences of zero-sum thinking, the differences between being a policymaker and an academic, the ratcheting effect of QE on the Fed's balance sheet, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 20th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:58 - Raghu's Career 00:22:20 - Policymaker Versus Academic 00:29:00 - Ratcheting Effect of Quantitative Easing 01:01:06 - Outro

Andrew Martinez is a former Treasure economist and currently is an assistant professor of economics at American University. In Andrew's first appearance on the show, he discusses his career as a forecaster, the current state of forecasting, the intersection of AI and forecasting, the role of the SEP and monetary policy surprises, his work with David on the NGDP Gap measure, and much more.     Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 13th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:20 - Andrew's Career 00:08:36 - State of Forecasting 00:20:19 - AI and Forecasting 00:29:34 - The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises 00:41:07 - Nominal GDP/Expectations Gap 00:54:56 - Outro

Dan Awrey is a professor of Law at Cornell University and the author of the new book Beyond Banks: Technology, Regulation, and the Future of Money. Dan returns to the show to discuss his new book, the shadow monetary system, the case for markets to correct this problem, Gresham's new law, his proposals for fixing the payments system, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 13th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Dan Awrey on X: @DanAwrey Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:16 - Beyond Banks 00:16:04 - Shadow Monetary System 00:26:07 - Can't Markets Solve Payment Problems? 00:28:16 - Gresham's New Law 00:40:27 - Dan's Proposal for Money and Payments 00:55:51 - Outro