30. Mad Poll Disease and the Folly of “Popularism” – with Michael Podhorzer

We continue our conversation about “Landslide,” the fantastic new NPR podcast series – and about the transformation of politics in the 1970s, the emergence of a new kind of populist politics, how the Republican Party was taken over by rightwing radicalism that ultimately rose to power with Ronald Reagan in 1980, and how all that relates to what we are experiencing today.   In last week’s Part I, we already talked about the process of partisan sorting and party realignment – certainly one of the key stories in recent U.S. history; about the reaction of the Republican establishment to the Reagan-led rightwing insurgency that oscillated between arrogance, helplessness, and complicity; we discussed Reagan as a radical figure in U.S. history and why we can only understand the rise of these rightwing insurgents if we focus on the racial and cultural grievances around which their political project was organized.   In this Part II, we start by tackling the question of how to reconcile individual agency and structural contexts, presidential politics and grassroots activism, the contingencies of the political process and broader cultural and ideological shifts when we think about and try to explain history. We also reflect on the question of how to relate Ronald Reagan to Donald Trump – on the relationship between the political styles, promises, and projects they embody: Reaganism and Trumpism; on the similarities and echoes, but also the differences between these two brands of reactionary politics. And finally, we reflect on the lessons we ought to learn (or not learn) from the 1970s for our own political moment, and whether the story of Gerald Ford and is best interpreted as a role model for a more moderate politics oriented towards compromise – or as a cautionary tale of what happens when the Republican establishment tries to appease and harness, rather than oppose, the forces of rightwing extremism.   Show notes: “Landslide” at the NPR podcast network: https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510376/landslide   Nuance Tales – Ben Bradford’s podcast production studio https://www.nuancetales.com/home

“Landslide” is a new NPR podcast series that tells the story of American politics in the 1970s, specifically of the 1976 and 1980 presidential elections, of Jimmy Carter’s unlikely path to the White House and, most importantly, of how Ronald Reagan and the New Right rose to power. And as you will hear in our conversation with our guest Ben Bradford, the man who created, hosted, narrated, and produced “Landslide,” it is also so much more. For this episode, I recruited the help of Seth Cotlar, professor of history at Willamette University (and our first returning guest on the show), who is currently writing a book about the relationship between establishment Republicanism and far-right activism in Oregon since the 1950s. Together, we discuss the story of “Landslide” with Ben Bradford – and the many questions of fundamental historical and political importance it tackles. We investigate the Republican Party’s radicalization to the Right and the role Ronald Reagan played in this process; the emergence of a new kind of politics and political culture; the relationship between Reagan and Trump – and between the political styles, promises, and projects they embody: Reaganism and Trumpism. And we reflect on the lessons we ought to learn (or not learn) from the 1970s for our own political moment, and whether the story of Gerald Ford and is best interpreted as a role model for a more moderate politics oriented towards compromise – or as a cautionary tale of what happens when the Republican establishment tries to appease and harness, rather than oppose, the forces of rightwing extremism. If you are interested in the pre-historie(s) of our present and how we got to where we are today, I promise this conversation is for you. We actually had so much to talk about that we are releasing the conversation in two episodes – look out for Part II early next week.     Show notes: “Landslide” at the NPR podcast network: https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510376/landslide Nuance Tales – Ben Bradford’s podcast production studio https://www.nuancetales.com/home

Have we learned anything new about the Republican Party, its base, and MAGA America from the GOP primaries? We talk about why Trump was always going to win, why he is the dominant force in Republican politics – but also, even though too many people pretend he is electoral magic, a relatively weak general election candidate. We also discuss what is animating the group of self-identifying conservatives who do not like MAGA, but still overwhelmingly vote for Trump. And we examine the role of the Republican establishment: Nikki Haley’s primary campaign can tell us a lot about the trajectory of conservative politics; the way Mitch McConnell’s career ends perfectly encapsulates the dangerous combination of reactionary ideology and cynical opportunism; and the fate of Mike Pence is a reminder of how Republican elites have tried – and failed – for decades to harness the rightwing populist energies of the base that are now fully dominating the party. Finally, we end the episode with some thoughts on Biden’s State of the Union address, Robert Hur and Merrick Garland, what the liberal justices on the Supreme Court are up to, and why, so far, what the political system has offered in response to the Trumpian threat is, at best, a whole lot of handwringing – and, quite often, a whole lot of complicity. Follow The Show⁠ ⁠Follow Thomas⁠ ⁠Follow Lily⁠ This episode was produced by ⁠Connor Lynch

Joe Biden is “too old” and should step aside – at least that is what many of the nation’s most prominent commentators are telling us. But do their arguments actually hold up to scrutiny? Is Joe Biden too old and unfit to be president? Is he incapable of campaigning and defeating Donald Trump in the 2024 election? And if he were to step aside, what should be the plan going forward? Specifically, is an open convention in the summer, as Ezra Klein has argued, the best path towards a Democratic victory in November? We discuss why this discourse, although frustrating and exhausting, matters; we evaluate the arguments of those who describe Biden as manifestly unfit; and we explain why, even though we are concerned too, we remain staunchly unconvinced by the arguments and suggestions the “Biden too old” camp has presented. Finally, we reflect on the case against voting for Biden that is coming from the Left, where “Biden too old” is often seen as merely a distraction from what are supposedly the much more significant reasons to reject the president, especially his stance on Gaza. We offer our thoughts on how people should approach an election in which we are confronted with a binary choice between either, in all likelihood, Joe Biden – or Donald Trump as the extremist leader of a party fully controlled by a radicalizing anti-democratic movement that is seeking to impose a vengeful authoritarian order on the country.   Show notes: Ezra Klein, “Democrats Have a Better Option Than Biden,” New York Times, February 16, 2024 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/opinion/ezra-klein-biden-audio-essay.html   Perry Bacon, “Biden’s Democratic Party is to the left of Obama’s. Thank a progressive,” Washington Post, July 13, 2023 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/13/why-progressives-winning-inside-democratic-party/   Thomas Zimmer, “What the ‘Biden too old’ discourse is really about,” Democracy Americana, February 13, 2024 https://thomaszimmer.substack.com/p/what-the-biden-too-old-discourse

What would a second Trump presidency look like? We dive deep into the detailed plans that have emerged on the Right for what they want to do immediately upon getting back to power. Almost two years ago, “Project 2025” was launched under the leadership of the Heritage Foundation. Different factions on the Right are preparing separate plans, but “Project 2025” stands out because it unites much of the conservative machine behind the goal of installing a much more effective, more ruthless rightwing regime. We look at the people behind these plans and what animates them – specifically Kevin Roberts, the president of Heritage, who embodies the siege mentality, self-victimization, and grievance-driven lust for revenge that is fueling the Right. And we dissect the plans and proposals “Project 2025” has to offer, department by department: The goal is to vastly expand presidential power and transform American government into a revenge machine, purge tens of thousands of federal employees and replace them all with loyalists. Already, “Project 2025” is engaged in an unprecedented headhunting operation to ensure ideological conformity. We discuss the tension between the goals of weaponizing the government while dismantling the “deep state” at the same time, and how it is indicative of a larger conflict on the Right between a “traditionalist” and a more rightwing-libertarian wing. Finally, we reflect on why a second Trump term would be much more dangerous, as it could rely on a fully Trumpified GOP in Congress, on a supermajority on the Supreme Court, and on the prospect of escalating violence as the ubiquitous threat against anyone daring to defy Trumpism.      Show notes: Project 25 https://www.project2025.org/   Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative promise https://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/project2025/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf   Inside the Heritage Foundation’s Plans for ‘Institutionalizing Trumpism, NYT, January 21, 2024 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/21/magazine/heritage-foundation-kevin-roberts.html   Don Moynihan, Trump Has a Master Plan for Destroying the ‘Deep State’, NYT, November 27, 2024 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/opinion/trump-deep-state-schedule-f.html   Don Moynihan, The risks of Schedule F for administrative capacity and government accountability, December 12, 2024 https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-risks-of-schedule-f-for-administrative-capacity-and-government-accountability/   Sam Adler-Bell, The Shadow War to Determine the Next Trump Administration, January 10, 2024 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/10/opinion/shadow-war-trump-transition.html   Chris Geidner, On Trump's "deep state" attack plans and where they would lead in a second term, November 27, 2024 https://www.lawdork.com/p/trump-deep-state-attack-v-admin-state-attacks

Claudine Gay, Harvard’s first Black president, resigned on January 2 – the endpoint of a brutally dishonest rightwing campaign that could not have succeeded without the mainstream media eagerly joining the crusade to get her fired. We discuss why this disastrous affair matters: It was the latest iteration of the eternal reactionary grievance against higher education, which conservatives have always seen as a place of subversive liberal indoctrination and dangerous social engineering; part of an attempt to recapture the institutions of American life that “the Left” has supposedly hijacked; and a crucial battle in a much broader struggle to extinguish whatever progress towards diversity and integration has been made. Harvard matters because this sets the precedent for other places, other universities, other institutions. The campaign was orchestrated by far-right activists like Christopher Rufo, promoted and financed by a rightwing billionaire donor class, and pushed by MAGA Republicans like Elise Stefanik. But wait, even if bad actors were behind it, did Claudine Gay not still plagiarize? We discuss that too and assess the substance of the plagiarism allegations against her. Friends, there is no there there. Then why did the mainstream media propagate, launder, and legitimize such a dangerous campaign and ardently accept the role Rufo needed it – publicly told it! – to play? They didn’t just “fall for it,” they deliberately joined this crusade – a decision indicative of the media favoring “neutrality”-theater journalism over accuracy, of an increasingly reactionary, anti-“woke” stance on the center, and of America’s elites rapidly accommodating extremism. We are in for a rough ride.   Show notes: Alvin Tillery, “Putting the Racist Crusade against Harvard’s Dr. Claudine Gay in Context” https://medium.com/@atillery2/putting-the-racist-crusade-against-harvards-dr-claudine-gay-in-context-26535c307f96   Don Moynihan, “The campaign that removed the President of Harvard was about DEI, not plagiarism,” https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-campaign-to-remove-the-president   Moira Donegan, “Claudine Gay’s resignation had nothing to do with plagiarism” https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/04/claudine-gay-harvard-resignation   Claudine Gay, “What Just Happened at Harvard Is Bigger Than Me” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/03/opinion/claudine-gay-harvard-president.html

In early November the New York Times released a poll that had Donald Trump clearly ahead in 5 of the 6 battleground states that will decide the 2024 election. It caused an earthquake and outright panic among (small-d) democrats. But just two days later, Democrats emerged victorious from an actual election. What on earth is going on in American politics right now? What are we to make of poll after poll claiming that Trump is on a path back to the White House? Do they tell us anything about what’s actually going on in the electorate? How should Democrats react in this situation?   There is no one else better equipped to discuss these questions – and shatter a few well-entrenched myths about elections and politics in the process – than Michael Podhorzer. He was, until recently, the long-time political director of the AFL-CIO and is now a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. And Mike is, without any exaggeration, a legend in progressive policy circles, having been instrumental in building and organizing an infrastructure for data-driven and evidence-based progressive politics. He is also someone who thinks deeply and sincerely about American politics and combines that with decades of experience as a leading progressive strategist and campaigner. The result is a clarity that few other political observers can rival – something he demonstrates regularly in his Weekend Reading Substack newsletter, in which he offers some of the very best political analysis out there.   We talk with Mike about why horse-race polling is “worse than useless” and should be ignored entirely; we dissect the dogma of “popularism” that is extremely influential in Democratic politics – even though (or, perhaps: precisely because) it offers white male identity politics rather than an adequate diagnosis or campaign strategy; and we discuss what’s actually going on in the electorate: Why there is so much frustration in U.S. society; the massive impact of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision; and why the pervasive idea of “education polarization” sanitizes and obscures the fault lines that actually shape U.S. politics.      Show notes: Michael Podhorzer’s Weekend Reading Substack newsletter: https://www.weekendreading.net/ Follow The Show⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Follow Thomas⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Follow Lily⁠⁠ This episode was produced by ⁠⁠Connor Lynch

We start with a reflection on the results in Tuesday’s elections, and how they relate to polls that indicate Joe Biden is not just unpopular, but actually trailing Donald Trump in key swing states. What can and can’t we take away from such polling, one year out from the presidential election?   We then dive deep into a very different kind of polling and survey data: the 2023 American Values Survey – arguably the most in-depth attempt to capture the values, ideas, and attitudes that shape American society and politics. What do American think of democracy, political violence, authoritarianism, and all the many issues – from abortion and history education to trans rights and QAnon – that define the political conflict? On the basis of this major survey, we try to take the temperature on where things currently stand in America. The results is… mostly not very encouraging.   Show notes: The complete 2023 American Values Survey can be found here: https://www.prri.org/research/threats-to-american-democracy-ahead-of-an-unprecedented-presidential-election/   “What Do Americans Think About the Health of Our Democracy and the Upcoming Presidential Election?” Panel discussion on the findings of the 2023 American Values Survey, with Lily Mason and others: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbeuG-lGiyU   “Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds,” New York Times, November 5, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html   Jeff Sharlet, The Undertow: Scenes From a Slow Civil War, W.W. Norton & Company 2023 https://wwnorton.com/books/9781324006497

The Speaker drama is over (for now) – but who is Mike Johnson? His ascension is not only further evidence that the January 6 insurrectionists are now fully in charge of the House, but also a manifestation of how much the Republican Party is dominated by the interests and sensibilities of religious reactionaries. Johnson rejects the separation of church and state, he disdains pluralism, and he certainly doesn’t like “democracy.”   We also discuss the role threats of violence played in this whole affair. The MAGA base wanted Jim Jordan – and threatened those who didn’t support him. We talk about the surge of political violence from the Right, violent threats as a form of political communication, and the kind of political culture that has been established on the Right and is constantly being normalized not just by Donald Trump, but also by an inability and/or unwillingness of America’s elected leaders and political institutions to hold the line. Does the fact that some Republicans publicly resisted these threats signal that this is about to change? We are skeptical: After all, even those Republicans who lamented the MAGA threats have not been willing to break with Trump or critically reflect on the escalating demonization of “the Left” that is animating the rise of rightwing violence.   Finally, we are taking a big-picture look at the state of the 2024 presidential race. On the Republican side, Trump’s “legal troubles” have not hurt him – he is not only in a stronger position now than before he was first indicted, but also than at a comparable point in time before the 2016 election. What are the reasons for his hold over the Right, and what does this tell us about the field of Republican “challengers”? On the Democratic side, we discuss what to make of all the polling data that suggests a tough road ahead for Joe Biden – and why the conventional wisdom about the electoral effect of presidential approval rating and perceptions of the economy might not apply. We also discuss the question of Biden’s age: There is a real issue here, as America’s political elite is indeed significantly older than that of any other comparable democracy. But the mainstream media’s fixation on the “Biden so old” trope also signals something else. Sources and Further Reading:   Annie Karni, “In Johnson, House Republicans Elevate One of Their Staunchest Conservatives,” NYT, October 25, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/us/politics/mike-johnson-house-speaker.html   “They Legitimized the Myth of a Stolen Election — and Reaped the Rewards,” NYT, October 3, 2022 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/03/us/politics/republican-election-objectors.html   Sarah Posner, “The Christian Legal Army Behind ‘Masterpiece Cakeshop,’ The Nation, November 28, 2017 https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/the-christian-legal-army-behind-masterpiece-cakeshop/   Jamelle Bouie, “The Apotheosis of Jim Jordan Is a Sight to Behold,” NYT, October 17, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/17/opinion/jim-jordan-house-speaker.html   Ron Brownstein, “The Threat to Democracy Is Coming From Inside the U.S. House,” The Atlantic, October 18, 2023 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/10/us-house-democracy-threat-republican-speaker-race/675679/   Aaron Blake, “Threats couldn’t save Jim Jordan. But Trump-era intimidation has had an impact,” WaPo, October 20, 2023 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/20/threats-havent-saved-jordan-trump-era-intimidation-has-had-an-impact/   “Threats to American Democracy Ahead of an Unprecedented Presidential Election,” PRRI, October 25, 2023 https://www.prri.org/research/threats-to-american-democracy-ahead-of-an-unprecedented-presidential-election/   Nathan P. Kalmoe and Lilliana Mason, “Threats as Political Communication,” Political Communication, October 18, 2023 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10584609.2023.2270539

After a very long summer break, “Is This Democracy” is back! We start with a reflection on the terrorist attack on Israel and the ensuing Israel-Hamas war, how it’s being discussed in the U.S., and the moral, political, and intellectual obligations that shape our own perspective.   We then tackle the latest round of Speaker drama: It took Kevin McCarthy 15 tries to get elected – and just 269 days later, he is out. Can we learn anything new from this Republican chaos? Maybe not – but it is a crucial reminder of what defines and animates today’s GOP. We talk about the dogma of rightwing politics that regards Democrats as not just a political opponent, but a fundamentally illegitimate, “Un-American” enemy that must not be allowed to govern; about the underlying dynamic that explains why moments of chaos almost inevitably result in a further radicalization of the Republican Party; about the GOP’s structural weakness, that makes it so hard to discipline individual members like Matt Gaetz; and about the politics and ideology of Steve Scalise who, at the time of recording yesterday, looked like he might become the next Speaker, and what he meant when he described himself as “David Duke without the baggage.” He has now withdrawn - more chaos. Finally, we talk about recurring themes that shape mainstream media coverage of these events in predictably misleading fashion: There is the idea that only Democrats have agency – and therefore are ultimately to be blamed for the chaos; and the pervasive trope of government “dysfunction” that entirely obscures the actual issue, but allows the media to take a “neutral” position from which it can blame “both sides.”     Show notes – articles that have particularly shaped this week’s discussion (not necessarily endorsements, mind you!):   Gideon Levi, Israel can’t imprison 2 million Gazans without paying a cruel price, Haaretz, October 9, 2023 https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2023-10-09/ty-article-opinion/.premium/israel-cant-imprison-2-million-gazans-without-paying-a-cruel-price/0000018b-1476-d465-abbb-14f6262a0000   The Hamas Attacks and Israeli Response: An Explainer, Jewish Currents, October 10, 2023 https://jewishcurrents.org/the-hamas-attacks-and-israeli-response-an-explainer   Emily Tamkin, What Does It Mean to Stand with Israel?, Slate, October 10, 2023 https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/10/israel-hamas-war-palestine-stand-with-israel-netanyahu.html   Eric Levitz, A Left That Refuses to Condemn Mass Murder Is Doomed, New York Magazine, October 11, 2023 https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/10/a-left-that-refuses-to-condemn-mass-murder-is-doomed.html   Steven Erlanger, As War Rages, Netanyahu Battles for Reputation and Legacy, New York Times, October 10, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/world/europe/netanyahu-israel-gaza-war.html   Ronald Brownstein, The Only Sin that Republicans Can’t Forgive, The Atlantic, October 3, 2023 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/10/the-only-sin-that-republicans-cant-forgive/675534/n     Moira Donegan, McCarthy ouster shows Republicans don’t want to govern - and they don’t want anyone else to either, The Guardian, October 4, 2023 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/04/republicans-freedom-caucus-kevin-maccarthy   Osita Nwanevu, The McCarthy debacle barely scrapes the surface of how dysfunctional Congress is, The Guardian, October 6, 2023 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/06/kevin-mccarthy-congress-corruption-ageing   What is Broken in American Politics Is the Republican Party, Politico, October 6, 2023 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/06/republican-leaders-mccarthy-expert-roundup-00120170 Follow The Show⁠ ⁠Follow Thomas⁠ ⁠Follow Lily⁠ This episode was produced by ⁠Connor Lynch