The Macro Chain Reaction of Oil Shocks | Bob Elliott

In this episode, we explore how a sudden oil shock and geopolitical conflict can quickly rewrite the global macro outlook, forcing markets and policymakers into a difficult balancing act between inflation and growth. We sit down with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to unpack how the Iran-driven oil shock fits into today’s fragile, savings-driven economy. We discuss oil shocks past and present, policy sequencing, bond market reactions, global currency impacts, and why markets may be underestimating the second-order effects of rising energy prices. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:30 Oil Shock Challenges & Today vs 2022 10:13 Contrasting the 2008 & 1970s Oil Shocks 15:15 The Energy Shock Impact on Households 19:16 How Will Central Banks & Bonds React? 29:50 Ads (Arkham) 30:38 Oil Shock Sequence of Events 32:28 Iran War's Asymmetric Regional Impact 39:00 What Happens to Gold? 42:02 Understanding a Wartime Economy 46:36 Final Thoughts FOLLOW GUEST › X/Twitter – https://x.com/BobEUnlimited FOLLOW THE SHOW › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at. Digital AssetSummit 2026 in NYC (March 24–26) › Use code FORWARD200 for $200 off https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode, we explore the fog of war in markets, where geopolitics and volatility scramble investors’ assumptions. Quinn and Felix break down the macro landscape, analyzing war narratives, energy shocks, and shifting expectations for growth, jobs, and Fed policy. We debate oil spikes, dollar strength, bonds, gold, options positioning, and hidden risks from agriculture to private credit. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (02:46) Iran War Update (08:08) Jobs Data, Bonds and Economic Deterioration (15:22) Asymmetric Iran Impact - US vs Europe/Asia (21:30) Market Structure - Everyone Owns Puts (26:35) Ads (Arkham) (27:23) How Will Iran War Impact Rates and the Economy? (36:21) SPR Drawdown and Trump’s Strategic Position (47:19) People Ignoring Agriculture Complex (51:45) Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC (March 24–26) › Use code FORWARD200 for $200 off https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14CFRydeUqk52UXPBW30wt-rcK5tuL-oK/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto. exchange and blockchainanalytics platform that allows traders and investors to look. inside the wallets of the besttraders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to. buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, Eric Wallerstein, explores how shifting geopolitics, Trump-era monetary policy, and structural economic forces are reshaping global macro. We cover tariffs, the dollar, Iran-driven market shocks, Fed balance sheet strategy, and the future of bank regulation. Along the way, we also unpack AI productivity, repo market fragility, and why Latin America could be the next macro frontier. Enjoy! __ Follow Eric: https://x.com/ericwallerstein Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://x.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://x.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:48) Eric's Wild Year At the Fed (07:26) Tariffs And The Role of the Dollar (14:15) Iran War Market Fallout (19:46) The Energy Shock vs Growth & Rates (24:55) Unpacking The "Donroe Doctrine" (31:29) Ads (Coinbase, Arkham) (33:12) Buying The Americas (35:56) Fixing The Fed Balance Sheet (40:29) Repairing Repo (43:23) The Coming Warsh Era (47:56) Productivity Growth vs The Fed (54:00) The Fed's Duration Plan & The Treasury-Fed Accord (58:06) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

This week, we explore how the Iran escalation is stress-testing a fragile, late-cycle financial system already stretched by years of easy liquidity. We examine oil volatility, energy chokepoints, bonds failing as safe havens, and the growing risk that geopolitics could trigger a broader liquidity event. We also discuss AI CapEx, private credit stress, political tensions, and the shifting structure of global markets. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://x.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://x.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lfBw2XOxnBjJSXeAmO8dmxrDicZuOQry/view?usp=sharing — Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. — Timestamps (00:00) Intro (06:49) Monitoring The Iran Situation (13:05) Market Risks Building (22:30) Market Headwinds, K-Shaped Economy, No Safe Havens (28:33) Ad Break (Coinbase, Arkham) (30:14) Fed Cuts And Late-Cycle Behavior (33:04) AI CapEx, LNG Risks, Hegemony Blow-Off Top (40:33) Bonds Are Dying (45:43) The Beginning of the End? (52:14) Midterms And Bipartisan Failures (57:52) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

In this first episode of Inflection Point, we explore the accelerating convergence between traditional finance and crypto as institutional adoption begins reshaping the foundations of global financial infrastructure. The conversation examines ETFs, DeFi innovation, market structure shifts, institutional flows, and how evolving investor behavior is changing Bitcoin and digital asset markets. Along the way, we discuss regulation, credit markets, technology limitations, and the broader implications of finance moving onchain. Enjoy! — Inflection Point: Apple 🎙️: https://bit.ly/3QKdX5a Spotify 🎙️: https://bit.ly/3YhGJy3 YouTube 🎥: https://link.blockworks.co/46Cee2q — Follow Matt: ⁠⁠https://x.com/Matt_Hougan⁠⁠ Follow David: ⁠⁠https://x.com/dlawant⁠⁠ Follow Michael: ⁠⁠https://x.com/marcryptonio⁠⁠ Follow Marc: ⁠⁠https://x.com/marcarjoon⁠⁠ Follow Inflection Point: ⁠⁠https://x.com/BWInflection⁠⁠  Follow Blockworks: ⁠⁠https://x.com/Blockworks_⁠⁠   — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code INFLECTION200 for $200 OFF! ⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026⁠⁠ — Timestamps (00:00) Intro To Inflection Point (06:48) The Convergence Between TradFi & Crypto (22:20) Crypto's Biggest Advantages & Hurdles (36:15) Crypto's Changing Market Structure (41:00) Prices, Sentiment & Long-Term Allocators (46:00) Evolution Of Crypto Options & Yield (51:30) Is The 4-Year Cycle Dead? (01:02:00) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Inflection Point is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Crypto #DeFi #Bitcoin #Blockchain #DigitalAssets #CryptoPodcast

CEO of LB Macro Luigi Buttiglione explores whether the AI-driven productivity boom marks a durable shift in the global economy or the start of new financial imbalances. We discuss U.S. exceptionalism, neutral rates and monetary policy risks, leverage in the AI buildout, public debt sustainability, and Europe’s structural challenges. We also touch on geopolitical supply shocks and what they could mean for inflation and rates. Enjoy! __ Follow Luigi: https://x.com/LButtiglione_ LB Macro Portal: https://portal.lbmacro.finance/signup/ LB Macro App: https://lbmacro.finance/download/ LB Macro Substack: https://substack.com/@lbmacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://x.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://x.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. — Timestamps (00:00) Intro (02:34) Luigi's Storied Background (04:10) AI’s Productivity Disruption (15:50) Monetary Policy vs AI & Inflation (18:21) Is the U.S. Still the Best Home for Capital? (22:50) The Problems with the Europe Narrative (31:42) Ads (Coinbase, Arkham) (33:23) The Limits to Government Debt (40:12) Private Debt, AI & Bank Regulation (46:06) U.S.-Israel War with Iran (51:04) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

We discuss the latest AI productivity disruptions, market reactions to the Citrini piece, NVIDIA earnings, and why capital keeps rotating away from software toward real assets, energy, and commodities. We also explore volatility, policy distortions, and signs of economic reacceleration. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://x.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://x.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QhmyPwzHfE0pzkjIWOxHtvUolJptQPUr/view?usp=sharing — Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:29) AI Boom or Apocalypse (11:10) NVDA Earnings & Dutch Disease (15:30) Software's Rerating & CapEx Winners/Losers (26:06) Are We the Horses? (29:44) Ads (Coinbase, Arkham) (31:25) Signs of Economic Reacceleration (40:36) Currencies & Vol Control (45:12) Gold, AI, Space, Hockey (48:33) Housing Market & Homebuilders (52:49) Boomer Roasting — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, sed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart discusses the $9 billion crypto ETF exodus, the spaghetti cannon approach to new ETF launches, and why the great sector rotation into energy, materials, and industrials creates the perfect environment for active managers while AI steals crypto’s speculative thunder. We also dig into the risks of levered and covered call ETFs, index rebalancing, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow James: https://x.com/JSeyff Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:25) What Happened To Crypto? (06:18) The Basis Trade (08:12) The Evolving ETF Landscape (12:48) Onboarding Institutions & Tokenization (17:47) Global Access To ETFs (20:09) Top Holders & Sellers And AI Competition (25:35) Ads (Coinbase) (26:28) Levered & Covered Call ETFs (31:00) Index Inclusions & Rebalancing (35:00) Massive Dispersion & ETF Rotations (41:07) Private Credit & Equity (45:30) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

This week, we're fresh off the inaugural TG Macro Conference in Nashville, unpacking all the biggest takeaways ranging from commodity cycles, gold, miners, oil, rates, and market psychology. We also reflect on trading lessons, risk management, and why in-person macro communities matter more than ever. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 — Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:42) Inaugural TG Macro Conference (08:27) Demographics, Debt & Hard Lessons (12:18) Oil, Commodities, Miners (18:54) Gold, Energy & Commodity Cycles (24:21) Rates, Bonds & Global Markets (26:28) Ads (Coinbase) (27:21) Warsh, Yields, Bull Markets (33:09) Market Psychology & Bull Case For America (41:08) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

This week, we break down evidence of a quiet Main Street re-acceleration, exploding market dispersion, AI-driven shifts in correlations, why passive strategies are being disrupted, and where capital is rotating across real assets, rates, and global markets. Enjoy! — FollowTyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19aYbTDngy8hRXMYUNNxZId3oM8AsfBjv/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 05:28 Main Street Re-Accelerating? 12:23 Ads (Grayscale) 13:04 AI CapEx Is Breaking Correlations (RIP Passive?) 19:55 Exploding Dispersion & Capital Rotation Plays 23:32 Retail vs Hedge Funds: Who’s Crowded? 32:08 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase) 33:43 Crowded Trades & Atoms vs Bits 39:50 AI Bottlenecks & Real Asset Rotation 50:02 Bitcoin, Crypto & Risk Appetite Check — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket