Markets Are Misreading A Late Cycle Liquidity Crunch | Michael Howell

Markets feel stable on the surface, but conflicting forces are building around Fed uncertainty, AI-driven growth, and structural imbalances that may not coexist for long. This week, we break down break down the Warsh hearing and concerns over Fed credibility to a potential re-industrialization and what’s actually driving resilience in the economy. We also explore AI-driven capex as the true growth engine, labor and credit dynamics, geopolitical pressures, dollar dominance, and the growing tension between asset inflation and societal change. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 04:49 Kevin Warsh Hearing 13:11 Oil Shock Meets Strong Data 16:51 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 17:15 AI Capex Boom 24:02 Data Centers Remake Economy 33:25 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 34:12 Church Beats OnlyFans 47:04 Dollar Dominance Surges 51:47 Dollar Wrecking Ball 57:58 ESG Trade Dies FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vCQT4biQJI-d10B0-OuD7MxJlq-kW9tl/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › FIDELITY CRYPTO This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk. We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy. We explore the liquidity vs. business cycle divide, yield curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity, rising commodities, and why all signals may be pointing toward a late-cycle shift. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:31 Global Liquidity Turning Lower 06:24 Liquidity Cycle vs Economy 11:29 Recession Fears vs Data 17:28 Treasury Stimulus and Buybacks 23:40 Why Bond Volatility Matters 31:56 Warsh and the Next Regime 39:29 What Interest Rates Really Mean 47:13 Positioning for Turbulence 58:08 Where to Follow Michael FOLLOW MICHAEL › X/Twitter – https://x.com/crossbordercap › Substack – https://capitalwars.substack.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are ripping higher, but something underneath feels increasingly disconnected from reality. This week, we break down the growing dominance of flows, derivatives, and policy over fundamentals, and what that means for how markets actually move. We explore extreme positioning, retail chasing, sticky inflation, policy incentives into midterms, and why capital markets may be losing integrity in an environment driven by liquidity and narrative rather than fundamentals. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:20 Historic Rally, Broken Market 06:09 Dollar Weakness Drives Everything 08:39 Volatility, Retail, And Trump 12:11 What Actually Moves Markets 16:52 Allbirds And AI Mania 21:04 Inflation Is Turning Higher 26:32 Midterms And More Stimulus 30:07 Housing Versus Asset Prices 34:00 Negative Real Yields World FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wFcQCeXRDIJX9c7g0Vn1H2IcBHNXdbbN/view?usp=sharing DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is reshaping how decisions get made in markets, but does faster insight actually create better outcomes, or just new risks? We speak with Jan Szilagyi, CEO of Reflexivity and former global macro investor, on how AI is being deployed inside hedge funds and why this moment may be more transformative than the ChatGPT hype cycle suggests. We explore AI-driven idea generation, solving small sample size problems, execution gaps, labor disruption, and whether a world of universal AI tools compresses alpha or expands it. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:01 From Druckenmiller to Macro 05:28 Why the Name Reflexivity 07:58 Why AI Unlocks Finance 11:40 Solving Small-Sample Macro 17:19 Known and Unknown Unknowns 23:15 When Data Beats Chatbots 28:27 Does AI Kill Alpha? 34:02 Best Strategies for AI 39:13 Jobs, Productivity, and Policy 45:10 Compute Needs Real Resources FOLLOW GUEST › Reflexivity X – https://x.com/ReflexivityAi › Reflexivity Website – https://reflexivity.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are sending mixed signals with geopolitics, inflation, and positioning all pointing in different directions, raising concerns about whether this rally is real or just a temporary squeeze before the next leg down. This week, we break down how the proposed ceasefire and AI acceleration are colliding with market structure in a battle of fundamentals vs flows. We explore AI-led productivity boom, Trump's political dilemma, Fed policy uncertainty, gold’s resurgence, and whether dispersion, not direction, is the real trade. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 04:21 Ceasefire Reality Check 07:28 Positioning Fuels the Bounce 11:25 Can VIX Stay Low? 14:28 Countertrend Rally or Not? 19:09 AI Compute Still Leads 28:11 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR) 30:06 Fed Cuts or Wishful Thinking? 34:05 China The New Bond Haven? 38:13 Best Trades in This Regime 44:14 Gold and Market Manipulation 49:50 Buy Non-US Again? FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/18AkSBzt_7Y_B8HX6BdbUyJ-kr7Q6Sqsq/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A war few expected to last this long is exposing how fragile global systems really are, raising a deeper question about whether we're witnessing a temporary disruption or the end of a the U.S. unipolar era. Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro joins us to break down the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and how shifting power dynamics are reshaping global markets and strategy. We unpack shipping flows, supply chain fractures, energy chokepoints, multipolarity, and why markets may be underestimating cascading global disruptions. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:42 Iran War Framework 07:23 What Actually Matters 11:46 Counting Ships, Not Headlines 15:59 Beyond Hormuz 20:20 Hidden Supply Chain Risks 25:20 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR) 27:11 How Long Until Damage? 32:01 Negotiations or Theater? 35:55 Why Markets Still Shrug 40:18 China’s Quiet Advantage 47:56 The Bull Case Remains FOLLOW GUEST › X/Twitter – https://x.com/JacobShap › Website – https://jacobshapiro.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance ›. Felix– https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance. isa recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is much more than another tech cycle. It’s a structural break that’s rewriting how economies function, how markets price assets, and how humans create value. We sit down with Jordi Visser of 22V Research live from the Digital Asset Summit in New York to unpack how the shift from chatbots to autonomous agents is reshaping productivity, markets, and long-term economic frameworks. We explore collapsing valuation models, AI-driven productivity, shifting labor dynamics, the compute arms race, and why Bitcoin, semiconductors, and hard assets may define the next cycle. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:23 AI Changes Macro Frameworks 06:28 Productivity Boom or Bust? 09:19 Why Bitcoin Benefits 12:42 AI and the Labor Market 15:55 The Sovereign AI Arms Race 19:15 Can New Models Catch Up? 22:58 Why Compute Demand Is Infinite 26:44 Hardware vs. Software 29:14 How to Actually Use AI FOLLOW GUEST › Jordi – https://x.com/jvisserlabs FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets appear frozen, but under the surface, positioning shifts and macro pressures suggest something far more unstable is unfolding. We’re back with the trio dissecting market structure, geopolitical risks, and the growing disconnect between headlines and actual capital flows. We dig into extreme hedging, volatility-driven moves, inflation from energy shocks, rotation into real assets, and looming credit stress that could force unconventional policy responses. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 06:36 Overhedged Market Setup 11:51 Why Volatility Misfires 15:11 Rotation Into Real Assets 18:12 Flows Over Fundamentals 22:00 Oil’s Inflation Corridor 29:48 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR) 31:25 Bear Flatteners, Bad Bonds 40:18 Wartime Capital Allocation 47:04 AI Compute Still Booming 55:01 Inflation Path, Not Politics 59:12 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VIgcvSAxR2kJPUjPsa7gjWFQPszL8atC/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users. residing incertain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold. positions in thecompanies, funds, or projects discussed.

Policy may be reacting to the wrong signals, as powerful structural forces quietly reshape inflation and the economy beneath the surface. In this episode live from the Digital Asset Summit, we sit down with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran to unpack his recent dissent and why he believes inflation risks are overstated while the labor market deserves more support. We explore oil shocks vs policy lags, AI and deregulation as disinflationary forces, shifts in the neutral rate, and how stablecoins could reshape global dollar demand. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:11 Why Miran Dissented 04:51 Looking Through Oil Shocks 06:36 AI And Deregulation Disinflate 10:04 The Case For Neutral 12:30 What Sets Neutral Rates 16:12 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR) 17:50 Where "Running It Hot" Narrative Fails 25:02 Skinny Master Accounts 27:02 Stablecoins And Dollar Demand 30:51 Tokenized Deposits Or Stablecoins FOLLOW GUEST › Federal Reserve – https://x.com/federalreserve FOLLOW THE SHOW › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside. the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto— and act on that information. Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Global markets face a fragile moment where a geopolitical shock could collide with already restrictive monetary policy, creating a setup few investors are prepared for. Felix and Quinn sit down with Joseph Wang live at DAS New York to unpack today's chaotic macro landscape, focusing on how energy markets and central bank constraints are increasingly intertwined. We explore oil supply risks, the Fed’s policy trap, liquidity constraints, the ongoing banking regime shift, and how these forces could reshape risk assets and global growth. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:28 Middle East Drives Macro 06:21 Risk Assets Face A Lid 09:15 Will The Fed Look Through? 12:02 Why Liquidity Stays Tight 15:14 Dollar Up Gold Down 19:16 The Great Rebalancing 22:28 Ads (Blockworks IR, Arkham) 27:18 Where Liquidity Could Come From 31:04 Can They Steer It Back? 35:20 What Signals Actually Matter FOLLOW THE SHOW › Joseph - https://x.com/josephwang › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.