Global Economic Outlook - Oil Shock Drives Growth and Inflation Revisions

In the second part of their conversation, host Aymeric Poizot and Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton turn to the market fallout from the latest FOMC meeting and what the Fed's reset means over the longer term.They unpack the bear-flattening of the Treasury curve, the role of falling oil prices and stretched equity valuations, and how a smaller Fed balance sheet, rising supply, and a higher term premium could keep yields elevated. The discussion closes with the credit implications of a "higher for longer” environment from leveraged borrowers and government debt to the pressures facing the housing market.

Aymeric Poizot, Global Head of Investor Development at Fitch Ratings, is joined by Chief Economist Brian Coulton to examine what Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed Chair means for monetary policy and markets.They explore Warsh's more hawkish tone, his focus on Fed communications and balance sheet reduction, and his push to restore credibility on inflation. The conversation also breaks down the latest rate decision and what falling oil prices and persistent inflation could mean for the odds of a hike later this year and the impact on Treasury yields and credit markets.

Ed Parker and Charles Seville outline Fitch’s updated Global Economic Outlook, covering how the impact of the US‑Iran war and resulting oil shock are driving growth and inflation forecast revisions, along with the impact of ongoing AI investment.

The ongoing US-Iran conflict has created a complex and mixed picture for Canada, a major oil exporter navigating both the benefits and costs of elevated energy prices. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Joshua Grundleger and Mark Sadeghian discuss Fitch's updated oil price forecasts and what the shock means for Canada's sovereign credit profile, energy sector, and provincial finances. The conversation examines diverging outcomes across the country, from Alberta's fiscal windfall to the headwinds facing Ontario and Quebec, and considers whether the Carney government's infrastructure and regulatory reforms could meaningfully shift Canada's long-term energy growth trajectory.

Hungary’s April elections delivered a decisive victory for the opposition Tisza party, reshaping the country’s political landscape and outlook for policy reform. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Erich Arispe Morales, Head of Eastern Europe Sovereigns, speaks with Malgorzata Krzywicka, Hungary’s primary analyst, about the election outcome and its implications for the country’s sovereign credit profile. The discussion places Hungary within the context of broader Central and Eastern Europe election cycles, examining how political change has influenced fiscal policy, EU relations, growth prospects, and rating trajectories across the region. Related resources:Caucasus Sovereigns Face Policy Challenges due to Effects of Iran WarHungary’s New Government Faces Macroeconomic, Fiscal Challenges 

AI‑driven investment in data centers, compute capacity, and supporting infrastructure continues apace, raising important questions about future monetization and credit sustainability. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary and Research, is joined by Alen Lin, Senior Director in Corporate Ratings, and Alex Bumazhny, Group Credit Officer, to examine recent developments around AI’s credit implications. The episode looks at whether current data center and compute capex is supported by future revenue potential, how value and cash flows may evolve across the AI value chain, and where overinvestment and disruption risks may emergeRelated resources: AI-Related Risks Rising for Software, Media, and Services CorporatesAI Revenue Potential Could Support Current Investment ScaleUS Public Power Planning Key to Absorbing Data Center Load Growth 

Richard Hunter and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how the Middle East crisis is affecting sovereign ratings and the macro-outlook. Impacts are contained so far, and much geopolitical risk is already built into ratings and headroom.Related Resources:Fitch Insights: Credit Implications of the Iran WarWorld Growth to Continue at Steady Pace if Oil Price Shock Short-LivedEgyptian Banks Are Well Positioned to Withstand Iran Conflict EffectsHigh Oil Prices Support PDP ABS Collateral Value; Hedges Limit Upside

From unsupported EV software to AI‑driven changes in office use and logistics, tech is reshaping collateral performance. Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Ratings Credit Commentary and Research, and Suzanne Albers, Senior Director in Structured Finance, look at pressure points such as outdated EV systems, shifts in office demand linked to AI adoption, and the widening gap between legacy and modern logistics sites. Taken together, these trends are influencing risk across auto ABS, CMBS, and RMBS and accelerating how these sectors respond to the faster pace of technological change.Related Resources:Accelerating Technology May Increase Obsolescence Risk Within ABS, MBSStable Arrears Protect European Auto ABS Against Near-Term RiskU.S. CLO Note Ratings Resilient to Severe Software Sector Stress

Thomas Rookmaaker and Harry Hu evaluate recent youth‑led protests in several Asian countries, driven by concerns over governance, living costs and unemployment, and their implications for sovereign credit profiles and political transitions.Risk of Political Flare-Ups to Linger in 2026 for Some APAC SovereignsAsia ‘BBB’ Sovereigns Show Strong Growth; Fiscal Risks DivergeDurable Coalition Key to Thailand's Fiscal Outlook After Elections

Justin Patrie and Sarah Repucci unpack Fitch’s Global Credit Outlook, highlighting resilient credit conditions, pressures in China and Canada, and key risks, including strain on lower‑income U.S. consumers, tariff volatility and geopolitical shocks.Global Credit Resilience to Face Major Tests in 2026Global Private Credit’s Burgeoning Scale, Complexity to Continue in 2026Geopolitical Tensions Raise Emerging Market Credit Risks in 2026Benign U.S. Credit Backdrop Faces AI, Consumer and Trade RisksGeopolitical Tensions Cloud Developed Europe’s Growth, Investment