Oil Shock Meets AI Bubble - Jim Welsh #6377

Kerry Lutz and Jim Welsh discuss how sustained high oil prices could impact the global economy, noting that the duration of elevated prices matters far more than short-term spikes. They examine recent market reactions to oil moves, regional supply risks such as Qatar's natural gas force majeure, and why stronger U.S. production today may provide more economic insulation than during the 2008 energy shock. The conversation also places current energy prices in historical context, explaining why a true 1970s-style crisis would require dramatically higher oil prices. They then turn to precious metals, where Jim outlines gold's recent parabolic rally and sharp correction. While the pullback may continue in the short term, he believes it could ultimately set the stage for the next leg higher in the longer-term bull market. The discussion closes with a look at AI and market structure risks. Massive hyperscale spending on artificial intelligence is expected to boost GDP this year, but it may also distort market psychology and push equity valuations higher than fundamentals justify. At the same time, that spending could reduce corporate buybacks as companies redirect cash flow toward AI infrastructure. With technical cracks appearing in the S&P, the group notes that downside risks for equities may be building. Find Jim here: https://www.macrotides.com/ Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5  

In this episode, Kerry Lutz talks with Matthew Tuttle as he shares his contrarian investing philosophy and explains why traditional hedges often fail. They discuss how human emotion, AI, and ubiquitous data are reshaping markets, and outline real ways investors can protect their portfolios. Tuttle also previews his new "no-bleed" tail-risk ETF, ONO, and other innovative ETFs coming soon. Find Matthew here: https://www.tuttlecap.com/ Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

In this episode, Kerry Lutz chats with Charles Nenner about the return of long-term war cycles and rising global tensions. They break down the Russia–Ukraine conflict, NATO's role, and historical promises to the Soviets, while warning the war could persist unless stances change. Nenner also flags China–Taiwan as the next major flashpoint and outlines the tough choices the U.S. may face around intervention. Markets are next on the radar. Nenner explains why cycles often drive price moves more than headlines, predicts a major downturn around 2026, and highlights potential rebounds in gold and energy. He also discusses short-term weakness in precious metals, a potential bottom in natural gas, and the broader risks of overvalued markets. Along the way, they touch on media influence, AI analysis errors, and personal experiences that underscore just how unpredictable these times can be. It's a high-stakes look at what's coming — for the world and your portfolio. Find Charles here: https://charlesnenner.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

In this interview, Kerry Lutz speaks with Mark J. Quann about recent market performance and why US stocks have lagged global markets despite what he views as a still-strong economy. He points to rising wages and increasing energy independence as key factors supporting long-term growth. Quann outlines the "buy, borrow, die" strategy — a tax-focused approach built on owning assets like stocks, ETFs, real estate, crypto, life insurance, and precious metals. Instead of selling assets and triggering taxes, he explains how borrowing against a portfolio can provide access to cash while keeping investments intact. He also shares practical steps for getting started, including small automated contributions and using margin loans through platforms like M1 Finance. Covered-call and commodity ETFs are discussed as potential income and inflation hedges, along with the long-term tax advantages of holding appreciating assets. Find Mark here: https://www.theperfectportfolio.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

In this interview, Kerry Lutz speaks with Rick Rule about why he sold 80% of his physical silver — and why the move isn't bearish. Rick explains that once silver stopped being a "hated" asset, the opportunity changed, leading him to redeploy capital into high-quality silver equities with strong upside if prices remain steady. Rick discusses the nature of precious metals bull markets, where sharp rallies are often followed by steep corrections. He explains why volatility shakes out unprepared investors and why popular silver narratives — including claims about large shorts like JPMorgan Chase — often distract from the basic arithmetic that ultimately drives markets. The conversation also looks at the bigger monetary picture. Rick believes the U.S. dollar could lose significant purchasing power over the next decade, with conditions similar to the 1970s. Precious metals may continue to appreciate over time, but investors should expect a volatile path with multiple corrections along the way. Rick also introduces the upcoming Living the Silver-Backed Lifestyle Report, which focuses on measuring purchasing power instead of price — showing what silver has bought in the past, what it buys today, and how precious metals have helped preserve wealth through inflationary cycles. Find Rick here: https://www.ruleinvestmentmedia.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

In this interview, Kerry Lutz speaks with Michael Pento about how liquidity may already be expanding by as much as $20 billion per week, quietly pushing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet back toward $7 trillion — despite continued claims of tight policy. He warns that the next recession could bring massive deficits in the $4–6 trillion range, potentially forcing the Fed to become the primary buyer of U.S. debt once again. If that happens, inflation may not be accidental — it could be the result of outright monetization. Pento also points to historically extreme valuations in stocks and housing, suggesting markets may need a significant reset to return to long-term norms. He believes gold remains in a long-term bull market and could accelerate higher as recession pressures mount and monetary expansion increases. Pento outlines a defensive approach that includes holding physical gold, adjusting liquidity as conditions change, and watching credit markets for early signs of stress. These long-term cycles are explored in The Armstrong Economic Code— and understanding them may help investors prepare for what comes next. Find Michael here: https://pentoport.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

Gold is testing the $5,000 barrier — and the charts are flashing warning signs. Kerry Lutz and Jerry Robinson dive into gold and silver as markets test extreme levels. A rising 50-day moving average offers support, but long weekly wicks show momentum could be slowing. Will it break through, or pause first? Speculation around Kevin Warsh and shifting Fed expectations may be driving the pullback. If the hawkish premium fades, rates could ease — and gold reacts. Silver just went vertical — then crashed back. Volatility is insane. Yet the fundamentals remain rock-solid: industrial demand from solar and data centers is still building. The lesson is clear: don't panic. Diversify. Dollar-cost average. See spikes as opportunity, not fear. Strategy also matters. Substack is winning over WordPress for publishing, mailing, and monetization. Kerry shares early paid-subscriber traction, teases Living the Silverback Lifestyle, and outlines a new parking-enforcement book paired with litigation and a public campaign under the National Association of American Defrauded Parkers. Markets are wild. Policy is shifting. Psychology is stretched. Smart investors stay steady — and strike when others hesitate. Find Jerry here: https://followthemoney.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5  

Mortgage rates tripled. The crash never came. In this Episode Kerry Lutz and Jason Hartman break down why U.S. housing didn't collapse when borrowing costs exploded. Nearly 25% of homeowners hold mortgages at or below 3%. About 65% are at 4% or less. That "lock-in effect" crushed supply and froze mobility. Fewer than 800,000 homes are listed nationwide — under 0.6% of America's 140 million housing units. Owners won't give up cheap debt. Inventory stays tight. Hartman believes this imbalance could persist into 2032–2033. Scarcity and utility continue driving prices — even after the rate shock. The conversation then shifts to immigration and rental housing. Hartman argues most undocumented migrants occupy lower-tier rentals, meaning enforcement shifts would likely hit C-class properties first. They also discuss Sun Belt migration trends and investor tools like PropertyTracker and Empowered Investor for sourcing income-producing properties. If you've been waiting for a housing crash, Kerry and Jason explain why it hasn't happened — and what could finally change the equation. Find Jason here: https://www.jasonhartman.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

In this conversation, Kerry Lutz is joined by Josh Hammer to break down why immigration enforcement has quietly reshaped crime trends, voter behavior, and the political landscape — often in ways the media refuses to acknowledge. They examine how Trump's enforcement-first messaging changed the national conversation, contributed to declining crime rates, and helped drive unexpected voter shifts, including among Hispanic voters in key states like Texas and Florida. Josh explains why open-border policies clash with a large welfare state, how cultural assimilation and enforcement intersect, and why past GOP immigration strategies failed where Trump's approach succeeded. The discussion also explores foreign policy, public safety, and state vs. federal authority, challenging the narratives shaping today's political debate — and why the voter shift may only be getting started. Find Josh here: https://x.com/josh_hammer Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

Gold and silver just made a violent move — and it wasn't random. Kerry Lutz sits down with Edward Siddell to break down the parabolic surge, the sharp pullback, and what it really signals beneath the surface. Siddell explains how panic buying, inflation pressure, and volume spikes collided in the metals markets — and why the pullback wasn't weakness, but a warning. At the center of the move: central banks. Siddell outlines why gold reserves are rising as U.S. Treasuries quietly lose favor, and how growing debt levels increase long-term dollar risk. The conversation turns to silver, where supply constraints, historical ratios, and rising industrial demand — including AI and data centers — are setting the stage for outsized moves. Siddell closes with his 12–24 month outlook for gold and silver and what to watch as markets head toward a potentially volatile 2026. Find Ed here:  https://EGSIFinancial.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5