Weekly Market Recap - Friday, 3-Oct

US equities mostly higher in Tuesday afternoon trading, near best levels after shaking off some early-session weakness. Equities largely in positive territory after a more risk-off stance at the open amid still-volatile trade headlines and following Monday's big bounce. September NFIB small business optimism index dropped to 98.8 from prior 100.8

US equities were higher in Monday trading, though stocks ended a bit off best levels. Upside today has been tabbed to de-escalation of US and China trade tensions after Trump's Friday threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. AI is another piece of today's upside after the latest OpenAI deal, this time with Broadcom.

Stocks were lower after a Friday selloff pushed the major averages into the red for the week, with the major averages all off for the second week in the past three. The Friday pullback was tabbed to rising trade and tariff tensions between the US and China. AI was the other area of focus this week, as the AI secular growth narrative was helped by the announcement that OpenAI will buy $300B dollars of computing power from AMD in the next five years, while having the option to purchase up to a 10% stake in the chipmaker over time.

Stocks pulled back after another record-setting session on Wednesday. No meaningful change to the constellation of market's moving pieces, though perhaps some added attention to risks of some bullish themes. Still no progress on the US government shutdown.

US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing flat, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 58bps and 112bps respectively, the latter two notching fresh records, and today’s upside largely tabbed to a rebound in the AI optimism trade. Nothing meaningful out of the release of September’s FOMC minutes. Treasury’s auction of $39B in 10-year notes tailed by 0.3 bp, with a notable dropoff in bid-to-cover and foreign demand vs last month. Nvidia will reportedly invest $2B of equity in xAI as part of a ~$20B fund raise.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, though off worst levels. Select tech underperformance the big story. Latest NY Fed consumer survey showed slight rise in year-ahead inflation expectations, though near-term optimism improved and some signals of better labor-market outlook. 

US equities finished mostly higher in quiet Monday trading. It was a very uneventful session with the path of least resistance still tilted to the upside amid the catalyst vacuum. It’s quiet on the economic calendar this week, but busy in terms of Fedspeak.

US equities were higher this week, more than recovering last week's losses. The government shutdown kept markets in a catalyst vacuum this week, but optimism held on broader expectations of only a temporary labor slowdown coupled with Fed rate easing prospects. September ADP payrolls fell 32K, the weakest since March of 2023, while August was revised down to a slight loss, reinforcing softening labor momentum and bolstering expectations for two more Fed cuts this year.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, improving off mid-morning lows with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all logging new record closes. Ongoing government shutdown was the big headline focus, though market has thus far largely viewed as more noise than news. Senate to vote again tomorrow on GOP's seven-week stopgap, and if that fails no more votes likely until at least Monday.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, nearing best levels. The ADP report was the latest high-profile data point highlighting the softening labor market following Tuesday's JOLTS report. Elsewhere, the Senate again failed to pass the latest CR attempt to end the government shutdown.