Inside the $110 billion AI economy (and who is really paying for it)

The AI economy is real, substantial and growing three times faster than the internet, mobile phone or cloud computing. But is it sustainable?Our forensic analysis from June of this year of 1,000+ companies reveals that over $70 billion in revenue is coming from Main Street enterprise adoption, rather than loss-making labs or VC-funded startups.However, we’re still in the foothills: even as models get cheaper, corporate bills keep rising; and hyperscalers are only just covering the costs of the data center buildout, with margins still years away. In this Q&A about the state of the AI economy, I discuss:00:00 The AI economy is real00:35 Who’s really paying for AI, and how we checked02:53 Will AI infrastructure spending pay off?04:36 Creating a “Brent crude” for tokens05:47 Cheaper models, bigger bills06:38 What AI leaders spend per employee, and why it matters07:38 When a cheap open-source model is all you need08:30 Congestion: the biggest problem CEOs hit with AI09:49 What life looks like when intelligence is cheap10:54 Why it doesn’t matter who wins the AI race12:04 Is AI really making us stupid?13:24 China’s efficiency moatNote: this was recorded before our latest tracker update and the annualized run rate has since grown to $229 billion. For an updated measure of the AI economy, see sources below.📄 Full report: https://intelligence.exponentialview.co/📈 The latest revenue figure: https://www.investmentbrief.ai/p/ai-investment-brief-monday-3 About Exponential View:Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/ Where to find me:Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1.Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I’ve been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter:  https://www.exponentialview.co/ — More than three years after ChatGPT's release, only 27% of executives say AI has met their ROI expectations. The history of factory electrification explains why — most companies are at the light-bulb stage, adding Copilot licenses rather than reconceptualizing their businesses around AI. In this episode I map the three stages of AI adoption, and show what it actually takes to move from chatbots to the autonomous company — the only stage where the moat becomes real. I covered: (01:40) Ford's electricity playbook: why AI adoption needs a complete rethink (03:51) The congestion problem: why AI gains stall (05:45) Chatbot to autonomous company: your three-stage roadmap (06:40) Why individual productivity gains won't build a moat — and what will (10:17) Which companies are getting AI transformation right (14:12) My 2029 AI adoption forecast — and how to stay ahead Read my essay "Why AI isn't showing up on your bottom line" on Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/p/why-ai-isnt-showing-up-on-your-bottom-line — Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1. Production and research: Baba Films, Chantal Smith, Marija Gavrilov. About Exponential View:Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/ Where to find me:Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1.Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I’ve been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ ---- Published in early March 2026, Andrej Karpathy's autoresearch AI tool makes autonomous scientific experimentation cheap and easy — but it was designed to solve machine learning problems. I wanted to see if I could apply its loop architecture to my own work: refining my worldview, testing arguments, solving business problems. In this video, I share how I adapted Karpathy’s autoresearch loops for problems that aren't easy to quantify, how to avoid the local minima trap, and the broader impact of these kinds of methods. I covered: (02:11) The Karpathy Loop: what is it and how does it work (07:54) Extending the loop into business and thinking (09:46) The local minima trap (12:20) The escape harness: getting beyond “good enough” (16:05) What I’ve learned after 30 days (18:47) The loop economy: from doing to judging ---- Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1. Production and research: Baba Films, Chantal Smith, Marija Gavrilov. About Exponential View:Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/ Where to find me:Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1.Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I’ve been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter:  https://www.exponentialview.co/ ---- Last week Jensen Huang shared the numbers from NVIDIA’s order book: AI compute demand has grown a millionfold in two years. Much GTC coverage focused on chips, robots, data centers in space, but I think Jensen revealed something far more important in his keynote: “the inference inflection has arrived,” and this is about to transform how all companies should manage their budgets. The inference era is already the operating assumption of the world’s most valuable company. In this week’s podcast, I cover: (1:20) NVIDIA's $1 trillion order book (1:56) OpenClaw: our era's web browser (7:54) Training vs Inference: how AI is changing (12:50) Pre-fill vs. decode: the technical split (18:06) The Harness: why OpenClaw changes everything (18:59) The engine is useless without a car (22:21) From 100M to 870M tokens per day (24:29) Meet my agent R Mini Arnold's team (26:16) AI focus group simulations at $10–50 a run (29:36) Jensen's self-interest (and why he's still right) (33:07) AI governance: token budgets don't belong with IT (35:07) From training economy to inference economy Read my essay "Magnitudes of Intelligence" on Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/p/the-hundred-million-token-day Access the solar supercyle model here: https://www.exponentialview.co/p/solar-supercycle ---- Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1. Production and research: Baba Films, Chantal Smith, Marija Gavrilov. About Exponential View:Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/ Where to find me:Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1.Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co ---- Apple may have stumbled into one of the most defensible positions in AI. This was not on my radar – just two months ago, I was describing a credibility crisis at the company; they appeared wrong-footed on the most important technology of our times and an acquisition was their only plausible way out.  In this episode I work through what I and many other commentators missed – and what road lies ahead for Apple. I cover: (01:16) Why I was wrong about Apple (02:40) What's behind the Mac Mini shortage (04:07) China goes OpenClaw crazy (06:28) Perplexity builds on a Mac Mini (07:12) The edge case for Apple (09:05) Apple Moat 1: hardware (11:31) Apple Moat 2: privacy (15:47) The K problem: when good enough beats genius (18:08) Privacy, sovereignty & the diary problem Read my old position on Apple: https://www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-515 For more practical info about my OpenClaw stack: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCG3dFRF3ek ---- Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1.  Production and research: Baba Films, Chantal Smith, Marija Gavrilov. About Exponential View:Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/ Where to find me:Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1.Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ ----- AI has become so embedded in how I work that I can no longer cleanly separate it from my thinking. That raises a question I find genuinely unsettling: is intensive AI use making me a sharper thinker, or quietly doing the opposite? In this episode I pull back the curtain on my full research and writing process — the custom tools, the friction points, and the places where I'm still not sure I've got it right. For Ezra Klein, having AI summarize material is a disaster for original thought. But my AI systems are designed to protect the cognitive work that has to stay human, while they handle everything else. Knowing where to draw that line turns out to be the hardest and most important question. I covered: 00:00 - Is AI worsening our thinking? 02:35 - Ezra Klein on AI and the death of original thought 04:02 - Cognitive offloading vs cognitive surrender 09:20 - Signal detection at scale 11:06 - Why I use several AI personas to scan for different insights 13:37 - AI tells me what NOT to think about 16:25 - The value of quietness 19:07 - Small notebooks, small ideas 20:01 - Writing reveals what you don't yet know 23:24 - The golden thread 25:20 - Speaking drafts aloud 28:05 - How I stress-test my arguments before publishing 29:35 - Using AI to stress-test my own house views 31:44 - Stylometer: my AI style and grammar tool 33:10 - Did AI make the thinking better? For more on this week’s topics, subscribe to my newsletter https://www.exponentialview.co/ ----- Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Baba Films, Chantal Smith, Marija Gavrilov. About Exponential View:Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/ Where to find me:Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1.Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ ----- Meet R Mini Arnold - my OpenClaw chief of staff, which manages the equivalent of a ten-person team from a Mac mini in my garden studio. While I slept, that AI team debugged its own code at 3am, researched a trending Substack essay using five parallel investigators, and wrote a 4,600-word script for this very episode in 40 minutes. The gap between people who've started building this way and those who haven't is widening every week.  I covered: 00:51 Introducing my OpenClaw agent “R Mini Arnold” 03:59 What my AI chief of staff actually does 07:58 The hardware and software stack 10:38 A morning brief before you wake up 12:05 Overnight agents: research and code 15:00 How I communicate with my agent 18:56 Example 1: the sovereign wealth fund 22:41 Example 2: how this video was written 26:34 What it costs 29:22 The soul.md personality spec 32:39 Am I losing the judgment muscle? 35:46 Individuals vs. Fortune 500s 38:25 What to try this week ----- Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Baba Films, Chantal Smith, Marija Gavrilov. About Exponential View:Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/ Where to find me:Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1.Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ ----- This is the first episode of AI Vistas, a new series where I bring together people I trust and respect to tackle a major question collectively.  Today’s question: are we in charge of our AI tools, or are they in charge of us?  Joining me are Nita Farahany, distinguished professor of law and philosophy at Duke University and a leading thinker on cognitive liberty and mental privacy; Eric Topol, founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute and one of the world's most cited medical researchers; and Rohit Krishnan, engineer, former hedge fund manager, and AI builder. Moderating the conversation is Nick Thompson, CEO of The Atlantic. We covered: (01:33) Introducing AI Vistas (03:51) The AI agent that made a financial decision mid-drive (05:48) What does it mean to act autonomously anymore? (08:42) Why AI harms are rarer than you'd expect (10:24) When AI outperforms doctors – and why that's complicated (15:20) Constituent competence: the skill you must never offload (18:50) De-skilling is already happening  (31:20) What can schools do better? (42:50) AI slop and "hollow-ware" (46:40) What is lost when AI does the creating? (49:18) When a tool gets good enough, we hand it off (50:11) Deliberate intent: keeping AI as a tool ----- Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Where to find Nick, Nita, Eric and Rohit: Thinking Freely with Nita Farahany: https://nitafarahany.substack.com/ Ground Truths with Eric Topol: https://erictopol.substack.com/ Strange Loop Canon with Rohit Krishnan: https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/ The Most Interesting Reads with Nick Thompson: https://nxthompson.substack.com/ Production by EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Baba Films, Chantal Smith, Marija Gavrilov. About Exponential View:Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/ Where to find me:Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1.Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ ----- In this episode, I sit down with my friend Rohit Krishnan - writer of the Substack newsletter Strange Loop Canon - for a hands-on conversation about what it actually looks like to build with AI agents today. Between us we're burning through tens of billions of tokens a month - I hit nearly 100 million in a single day this week - and we share what we're each running on our own machines. We dig into the quirks and surprising power of tools like OpenClaw, Claude Code, and Cowork, debate why AI remains stubbornly bad at good writing, and zoom out to ask what a world of trillions of agents might actually look like — and what economic infrastructure it will need. We covered: (03:15) What's on your screen right now? (04:30) OpenClaw (06:27) Rohit’s agent, Morpheus (11:06) Azeem's agent, R. Mini Arnold (19:25) The analyst is now a machine (22:36) 100 million tokens in a day: the new normal (24:44) Building tools to improve AI writing: Horace and Broca (32:19) Why writing is the hardest eval for LLMs (39:18) Towards a trillion agents (42:09) The agentic economy: coordination, identity, and exchange (46:33) How to get started with OpenClaw (51:18) The hardest leap for new users ----- Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Baba Films, Chantal Smith, Marija Gavrilov. About Exponential View:Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/ Where to find me:Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1.Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ ----In this episode, I'm joined by Jaime Sevilla, founder of Epoch AI; Hannah Petrovic from my team at Exponential View; and financial journalist Matt Robinson from AI Street. Together we investigate a fundamental question: do the economics of AI companies actually work? We analysed OpenAI's financials from public data to examine whether their revenues can sustain the staggering R&D costs of frontier models. The findings reveal a picture far more precarious than many assume; we also explore where the real infrastructure bottlenecks lie, why compute demand will dwarf energy constraints, and what the rise of long-running agentic workloads means for the entire industry. Read the study here: https://www.exponentialview.co/p/inside-openais-unit-economics-epoch-exponentialviewWe covered: (00:00) Do the economics of frontier AI actually work? (02:48) Piecing together OpenAI's finances from public data (05:24) GPT-5's "rapidly depreciating asset" problem (13:25) Why OpenAI is flirting with ads (17:31) If you were Sam Altman, what would you do differently? (22:54) Energy vs. GPUs; where the real infrastructure bottleneck lies (29:15) What surging compute demand actually looks like (33:12) The most surprising finding from the research (38:02) The race to avoid commoditization (43:35) Agents that outlive their models  Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem  Where to find Jamie: https://epoch.ai or https://epochai.substack.com Where to find Matt: https://www.ai-street.co  Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov. About Exponential View:Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/ Where to find me:Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by EPIIPLUS1.Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.