The Poorly Polling Palingpopulist Edition - Week 43 - 2025

Sybrand Buma bows out as coalition negotiator, leaving behind an iconic photograph and a Herculean task to form a new government. His successor, Maastricht university professor Rianne Letschert, pays tribute to the Schoof cabinet when she almost steers off the road as she takes the call offering her the job. Ajax stop the rot with a dramatic late comeback in Azerbaijan. Dick Advocaat is declared safe from US aggression off the coast of Venezuela. And this year's top Google searches suggest that punctuality is becoming another endangered Dutch tradition.

The coalition talks hit an impasse as D66 and CDA's hopes of forming a government go up in smoke faster than an Ajax home match. Financial investigators uncover more evidence of Russian influence at the Netherlands' largest shipbuilder. AvroTros confirms it will boycott next year's Eurovision Song Contest in protest at Israel's participation. Utrecht waits for DNA test results after a suspected "problem wolf" is shot dead. And a kitten dies after contracting bird flu on a goat farm. Link to the NATO Summit documentary: https://youtu.be/cRa8zPS2zoo?si=616TRLrI9zwjwe4v

Like exhausted generals at the Somme, the VVD gear up for one last push to get their asylum bill through parliament before the new cabinet takes office. Drones from Russia - or possibly MediaMarkt - cause consternation in the skies and ground aircraft in Eindhoven. PSV are on cloud nine after thumping Liverpool in the Champions League, while Ajax look to another Cruyff to rescue them from the doldrums. Amsterdam introduces a licensing system for second home buyers, as first-timers benefit from an exodus of private landlords. And a chance discovery in Australia solved a 450-year-old maritime mystery.

Dick Advocaat sparks scenes of jubilation on Curaçao and the world's shortest open top bus tour after the Caribbean nation reaches the World Cup for the first time. Back in The Hague, Rob Jetten and Henri Bontenbal get bogged down on nitrogen policy, while Dilan Yeşilgöz serves coffee with humble pie to Hans Wijers. Groningen reels from its biggest earthquake in six years while economic affairs minister Vincent Karremans calms the storm that blew up in China over the Nexperia takeover. And the US ambassador rules out restoring a panel commemorating black American servicemen who buried the bodies of their comrades in Limburg during WWII.

Rob Jetten and Henri Bontenbal give Dilan Yesilgöz a taste of her own medicine by shutting the VVD out of the first round of coalition talks. Employers are struggling to entice workers to go back to the office, while the VVD quietly ditches plans to protect migrant workers from exploitation. Limburg protests against the removal of exhibits at a a US war cemetery honouring black liberators. The prefabricated houses donated to Zeeland after the devastating 1953 floods get heritage status. And we explain how there could be as many as five Dutch teams at next year's World Cup.

National train chief Wouter Koolmees defies expectations by getting the first stage of coalition talks under way with only a slight delay. But will Dilan Yesilgöz' pledge to deplatform GL-PvdA shunt the whole exercise into a siding? The housing crisis intensifies as private landlords sell off student flats and a project to convert empty buildings fails to make an impact. The cabinet controversially scraps measures designed to protect migrant workers. Company bikes prove a hit as the cost of travelling to work increases. And Ajax's head coach John Heitinga is told to pack his bags after yet another crushing night in the Champions League.

We pick over the bones of the election that had just about everything … apart from a result. Jetten just about edges out Wilders, Yesilgöz snatches defeat from the jaws of catastrophe, Bontenbal and Eerdmans console themselves with huge gains and Van Hijum starts browsing brochures for Sint Eustatius. Eight so-called sovereign citizens are charged with forming a senior citizens' terror cell. Amsterdam sells itself short with its 750th birthday cake. And in sport, Katwijk's goalkeeper suffers from premature jubilation while Vitesse Arnhem's legal headaches continue.

D66 look set to become the largest party in the new Dutch parliament in a shock result that sees Geert Wilders' far-right PVV lose a dozen seats. The VVD do better than expected and finish ahead of GroenLinks-PvdA – whose leader Frans Timmermans announced his resignation after we recorded the podcast – and the CDA. With Rob Jetten likely to get first dibs on forming a coalition and at least two viable options, the coalition building process may be more straightforward than expected. And we look at some of the surprises further down the line, including a boost for Forum voor Democratie and the return to parliament of the volatile pensioners' party 50Plus.

Clip from October 10 Dutch News podcast on the rise of D66 in the election campaign

A low-key election campaign staggers into its final days with a flurry of minor squabbles about refugee centres, religious schools and whether the animal rights party is too pro-human. House prices could be peaking as private landlords sell off their rental properties. A crisis looms in the German car industry after China hits back at the Dutch government's takeover of Nexperia. Eurostar sends double-decker trains into London, but too late to save Ajax fans from witnessing a horror show against Chelsea. And PostNL collars the market in robot delivery services.