ECM update: US shutdown ends, UK budget on the horizon, AI bubble possible

Sam Kerr, Mergermarket’s global ECM editor and head of Mergermarket in EMEA, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the global ECM outlook, including:Why the end of the US government shutdown may not lead to a flurry of new listings, potentially forcing IPOs to 1Q26;How the US markets have performed and which listings haven’t been able to maintain their outsized pops from their IPO date;How companies are faring on the LSE, including Shawbrook, Beauty Tech, and Princes, and what the signaling about the country's budget could mean;How the potential AI bubble could impact markets worldwide.All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Arezki Yaiche, Mergermarket’s France-based bureau chief, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the French political situation and its impact on the business community, including:How the political turmoil began when President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election in 2024 and why it has persisted;What items could be up for debate in the budget, like a possible end to an R&D tax rebate that has encouraged family offices and other investors to fund tech companies;How the instability is impacting France’s credit rating and foreign investor sentiment;Which unicorns stand out amid the chaos, like Mistral AI, and why particular industries may continue to perform well.All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

John West, Mergermarket’s global commentary editor and author of our weekly Continental Drift column, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss how corporates can navigate the new trade realities, along with other macroeconomic risks and opportunities. What is the real impact of First Brands and Tricolor on capital markets pipelines?How strong are the parallels between the boom in AI investment and the dotcom bubble?Could M&A financing become more expensive even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Reuben Miller, Mergermarket’s global chief regulatory editor, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss why the antitrust review of the deal is likely to be relatively straightforward, despite the risks from other processes.Could China seek concessions from the Trump administration in the midst of the ongoing trade war?Will the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US give PIF an easy ride given the involvement of Trump’s family?Could regulators seek a data firewall to prevent PIF gaining full access to information on EA’s gamers?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Carlos Martinez, Mergermarket’s energy editor in the Americas, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the energy landscape including:Which sponsors are investing in a wider range of energy assets, like BlackRock’s recent agreement to purchase utility company AES for USD 38bnWhy the changing approach to utilities investments may spark state-level policy pushback in the USWhy more renewable energy-focused investors may begin to look toward opportunities in CanadaHow strategics are circling energy investments by funding plants and entering into power purchase agreementsAll this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Simon Segal, Mergermarket’s Australia director, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the behind the scenes of the deal, including:Why the deal fell apart, looking at potential regulatory factors, foreign investment dynamics, and the landscape of Australia’s guarded domestic energy sector;Which other bidders have tried and failed to purchase Santos and why;What could be next for Santos, including which assets shareholders may look for it to spin out and, conversely, which upcoming facilities could burgeon the business.All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Brian Yue, Mergermarket’s New York-based consumer reporter, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss dealmaking in the beauty sector, including:How trending, well-branded assets have overcrowded the space, refocusing buyers' attention toward science-backed or dermatology-focused companies;Which companies have successfully transacted, looking at examples like the sale of Hailey Bieber’s Rhode to e.l.f. Beauty for USD 1bn;How consumer spending and larger factors are impacting beauty sector dealmaking;All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Johannes Baier, a founding partner at Rohde Baier, and Aurelia Seidlhofer, Mergermarket’s Munich-based senior correspondent, join Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the emergence of search funds in DACH. Topics include:Why these funds can offer more flexibility and tailor-made solutions for investors over typical structures like private equity;Why search funds are gaining popularity in DACH, particularly in Germany's Mittelstand (export-focused SMEs);The outlook for the emerging category as banks become more familiar with financing these transactions;The exit timelines and typical return expectations for investors and entrepreneurs involved in search funds.All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Troy Hooper, Mergermarket’s North America Co-Head of Equity Capital Markets, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the trend of dual-track de-SPAC deals, including:What exactly is a SPAC is and how does the de-SPAC process work?Why is Kyivstar's de-SPAC deal significant?What is driving the revitalized popularity of SPACs? Why are these deals popular with life sciences and digital asset companies?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

The cybersecurity industry is based around three pillars: identity management (like CyberArk and ForgeRock), network management (like Palo Alto) and end-point security (also provided by Palo Alto).Will the DoJ be concerned about Palo Alto bundling the three pillars together?How has regulatory thinking on bundling theory evolved from US President Joe Biden’s administration to President Donald Trump’s?Will officials under Trump continue to take a hard line on tech consolidation in general? And how about cybersecurity in particular?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.