From Gold Profits to Oil Equities: The Next Contrarian Setup? | Compass

Recording date: 10th December 2025Olive Resource Capital's November 2025 portfolio performance—reaching year-to-date highs despite October's commodity market volatility—demonstrates the strategic value of disciplined gold position management within diversified resource portfolios. Whilst the firm identifies compelling contrarian opportunities in oil equities trading at generational lows, their analysis paradoxically reinforces gold's foundational importance through quantitative validation and macro context.The most striking evidence emerges from commodity ratio analysis. The oil-to-gold ratio currently sits at 20% of its 25-year historical average, representing an extraordinary dislocation that simultaneously confirms oil's severe undervaluation and validates gold's exceptional relative strength. This 500% premium to historical norms reflects fundamental repricing within commodity markets, with gold demonstrating superior pricing power amidst coordinated global liquidity expansion.Executive Chairman Derek McPherson and President & CEO Samuel Pelaez articulated the macro framework supporting hard asset valuations: persistent deficit spending across the United States, China, Canada, and European nations creates monetary conditions under which gold has historically thrived. "There is tons of liquidity coming and so your hard assets which oil is one of are going to be economic at least economic stability if not economic growth," McPherson explained, referencing macroeconomist Lyn Alden's observation that debt-financed economic support creates inexorable momentum favouring tangible assets over financial claims.China's commodity accumulation behaviour provides instructive parallels. The nation's documented gold reserve building during 2022-2024 contributed significantly to gold's rally from $1,800 to over $4,000 per ounce. Now applying similar logic to crude oil—stockpiling 700,000 barrels daily beyond refining needs—China demonstrates sovereign recognition of strategic hard asset acquisition during relative weakness. This pattern validates gold's completed appreciation cycle whilst identifying emerging opportunities in complementary commodities.Olive Resource Capital's tactical approach exemplifies professional position management. The team trimmed gold exposure during September 2025's strength, capturing profits whilst maintaining strategic core holdings, then added positions during October-November weakness at improved valuations. "We've actually been adding positions and effectively reducing our cash balance," McPherson confirmed, describing deployment across selective gold equities alongside exploratory oil positions.This disciplined rebalancing contrasts sharply with wholesale rotation between commodity sectors. Gold maintains permanent strategic importance through unique characteristics: portfolio insurance properties, liquidity during market stress, and systematic sensitivity to monetary conditions. Whilst cyclical opportunities in energy or base metals may offer superior near-term returns, gold provides stability and appreciation independent of specific economic outcomes.The investment framework applies across commodity cycles. Pelaez referenced Agnico Eagle's 20-30x return from 2015-2025, demonstrating rewards from acquiring premier assets during sector pessimism. "You can buy top of class best management best run companies and you still stand an opportunity to make multiples on your money," he observed regarding current oil valuations—a principle equally applicable to quality gold producers offering continued leverage to further monetary metal appreciation.For sophisticated investors, gold's role transcends cyclical trading. The monetary environment—coordinated deficit spending, currency debasement, sovereign reserve diversification—creates conditions for sustained appreciation whilst maintaining portfolio foundation that enables tactical exploration of complementary opportunities. The lesson from Olive Resource Capital proves clear: gold serves as strategic anchor whilst other commodity sectors rotate through relative value cycles.Learn more: https://cruxinvestor.comSign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

Interview with Gordon Neal, President, Domestic Metals Recording date: 9th December 2025Domestic Metals has acquired a promising Montana copper porphyry project from Rio Tinto through an earn-in agreement that highlights the property's significant potential. The company can earn 60% ownership by spending $3.15 million USD on exploration work, with Rio Tinto retaining 40% plus an unusual 20% clawback provision—a protective measure that underscores the major miner's conviction in the project's long-term value.The Smart Creek-Sunrise property occupies compelling geological ground, located 50 kilometers northwest of the historic Butte mine, which has produced 22 billion pounds of copper over a century. The project sits within the same Helena formation geology, with company geologists noting that rocks match Butte's characteristics in age and composition. Rio Tinto drilled 26 of 40 total holes on the property, with results improving progressively from southeast to northwest. The best intercept to date shows 109 meters at 0.75% copper, including 80 meters at 0.97% copper, suggesting drilling was advancing toward rather than away from the porphyry center.President Gordon Neal brings proven credentials, having built MAG Silver from $50 million to $2.5 billion market capitalization and New Pacific Metals from $100 million to $1.5 billion. His track record in capital markets and project development provides credibility to the company's exploration strategy.The company recently raised $4 million to fund comprehensive IP and magnetotelluric geophysical surveys in January-February 2026, followed by 3,000+ meters of drilling starting February-March. Assay results are expected April-May 2026. A critical advantage is Montana's streamlined permitting environment, with drill permits obtained in four months versus 5-7 years in Arizona. The Forest Service recently extended 36 expired drill permits using existing paperwork—unprecedented flexibility that enables rapid, capital-efficient advancement of what could become a significant domestic copper discovery.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

Interview with David Wolfin, President and CEO, Avino Silver & GoldOur previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/avino-silver-gold-tsxasm-junior-to-intermediate-producer-transformation-underway-8062Recording date: 9th December 2025Avino Silver & Gold Mines Limited is executing an ambitious expansion plan to transform from a single-asset producer into a diversified mid-tier mining company. The Mexico-based operation, which traces its roots to 1968, currently generates between 2.5 and 2.8 million ounces of silver equivalent annually and aims to triple its producing asset base within five years through organic development of properties it already owns.The company's third quarter 2025 results underscore the financial strength supporting this growth trajectory. Avino achieved record revenues of $21 million USD with $9.9 million in gross profit and approximately $5 million in free cash flow. All-in sustaining costs remain in the low $20s per ounce, creating substantial margins as silver approaches $60 per ounce. Revenue composition is diversified across 49% silver, 19% gold, and 31% copper, providing natural commodity price hedging.La Preciosa represents the most immediate production catalyst. Located 19 kilometers from the existing Avino mill, the project commenced ore extraction one month ahead of schedule, shipping over 6,700 tons during the recent quarter. Early drilling results have significantly exceeded previous feasibility estimates, with intercepts reaching 787 grams per ton of silver compared to the 200 g/t resource grade established by prior operator Coeur Mining. President and CEO David Wolfin noted these high-grade hits suggest actual mining grades will substantially exceed earlier projections.The company's third potential producing asset involves reprocessing historical oxide tailings adjacent to current operations. With 6.7 million tons in proven and probable reserves and capital requirements under $50 million, the project offers particularly attractive economics with projected all-in sustaining costs around $10 per ounce. At current metal prices, Wolfin estimates the project's net present value at approximately $250 million.Supporting this expansion, Avino has more than doubled its exploration budget for 2026, planning 20,000 to 30,000 meters of drilling across both properties. Institutional ownership has risen from under 10% to 32% over two years through organic open-market purchases, validating the growth thesis. Management expects to release updated resource and reserve estimates for both La Preciosa and Avino in the first quarter of 2026.Learn more: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/avino-silver-gold-mines-ltdSign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

Interview with Marcio Fonseca, President & CEO, and Daniel Schieber, VP Corporate Development & Corporate Relations of GR Silver Mining.Our previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/gr-silver-mining-tsxvgrsl-pitch-perfect-october-2025-8302Recording date: 10th December 2025GR Silver Mining has positioned itself at the forefront of Mexico's silver exploration sector following a transformational 2025 that saw the company secure $17.5 million in financing, bringing total cash to approximately $28 million CAD—the strongest balance sheet in company history. This capital infusion, primarily from institutional investors and experienced Canadian capital markets participants, provides 12-18 months of fully-funded operations to execute an aggressive 2026 exploration program without near-term dilution concerns.The company's San Marcial silver discovery hosts 134 million ounces of silver equivalent resources discovered at industry-leading costs of just 17 cents per ounce, generating approximately five ounces of resources for every dollar invested in drilling. With only 20% of the primary geophysical anomaly tested to date, management plans to more than double historical drilling meterage in 2026, targeting over 36,000 meters with multiple rigs operating simultaneously under a five-year permit covering 46 drill sites. This aggressive approach aims to expand the resource footprint by 600-800 meters along strike while testing parallel zones that could significantly increase the overall resource base.GR Silver's dual-track strategy combines resource growth at San Marcial with pilot plant development at the fully-permitted historic Plomosas mine, creating near-term production optionality while de-risking San Marcial's permitting pathway. The company has identified 21 mining areas at Plomosas requiring no development capital, with existing infrastructure including power, water permits, and tailings facilities that would otherwise represent major capital expenditures and multi-year permitting delays.Toronto analysts indicate in-situ valuations for comparable companies typically range $3-4 per ounce of silver resources, yet GR Silver trades at approximately $1 per in-situ ounce. Located just 40 kilometers from Vizsla Silver's $2.5 billion market cap Panuco project, GR Silver's current valuation is roughly 20 times smaller despite resources one-third the size, suggesting substantial re-rating potential as the company advances toward its first Preliminary Economic Assessment scheduled for 2026 while maintaining top 10 TSX Venture trading status with 6.5-7 million shares daily volume.—View GR Silver Mining's company profile: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/gr-silver-miningSign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

Interview with Dennis Lindgren, CEO of Black Bear MineralsRecording date: 10th December 2025Black Bear Minerals (ASX:BKB) has completed a strategic transformation from lithium explorer to focused North American precious metals developer, acquiring the Shafter Silver Project in Texas for A$30 million whilst advancing the Independence Gold Project in Nevada. This repositioning positions the company at the intersection of exceptional resource grades, existing production infrastructure, and America's growing recognition of critical mineral supply vulnerabilities.The flagship Shafter Project hosts 17.6 million ounces at 289 grams per tonne silver in foreign resource estimates, ranking amongst the ASX's highest-grade silver resources. CEO Dennis Lindgren, formerly with South32 and Alcoa, emphasises the infrastructure advantage: "It's one of the highest grade silver projects on the ASX. It comes with about 150 million in estimated infrastructure and that includes existing underground workings, existing core sheds as well as historical data." This existing infrastructure—including underground workings, mill circuits, and processing facilities operational until 2013—potentially compresses development timelines by years compared to greenfield competitors.Near-term catalysts centre on JORC-compliant resource conversion targeted for the second half of 2026, supported by A$17 million working capital allocated for drilling programmes. Recent rock chip sampling has returned exceptional grades exceeding 3,000 g/t from near-surface areas outside the current resource footprint, whilst historical stockpile evaluation reveals grades averaging over 300 g/t, suggesting previous operators may have applied inappropriate cutoff grades or overlooked valuable mineralization.Beyond silver-focused historical operations, Black Bear's technical review has identified multicommodity potential including zinc, lead, vanadium, and gold across multiple locations. Lindgren noted: "We're picking up really good levels of zinc and lead that we would consider as targets to go forward with." This creates potential by-product credits that could materially improve project economics whilst expanding exploration vectors beyond current silver-equivalent resource calculations.Silver's designation as a US critical mineral fundamentally alters the strategic context surrounding domestic production projects. America produces approximately 30 million ounces annually whilst consuming over 210 million ounces—importing roughly 85% of requirements despite the metal's critical status for national security and economic competitiveness. Lindgren articulated the supply-demand imbalance: "Having another US domestic asset that can actually supply into those markets we think is something that's very attractive particularly with it being critical now."Jurisdictional advantages strengthen Black Bear's development pathway. Texas ranks within the top five global mining jurisdictions with 20% tax rates, partial permitting already in place, and strong community support in Presidio County. Proximity to major Mexican silver operations ensures access to experienced workforce and established supply chains.Portfolio diversification comes through Independence Gold Project in Nevada, hosting 419,000 ounces of near-surface heap-leachable gold at 0.4 g/t and 980,000 ounces of high-grade skarn mineralisation at 6.67 g/t. The company recently completed 5,000 metres of drilling exceeding planned programmes, with assay results expected in early 2026.Management's measured approach prioritises resource definition and JORC compliance over premature production planning, appropriate given recent acquisition timing. However, the infrastructure leverage and critical mineral designation create optionality for accelerated development should commodity fundamentals, government support, or strategic partnerships materialise. Investors should monitor JORC conversion progress, drilling results from both projects, and infrastructure assessment studies as key milestones determining whether Black Bear can validate its high-grade silver thesis and capitalise on structural supply deficits facing American consumers.Learn more: https://cruxinvestor.comSign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

Interview with Alan Carter, President & CEO of Cabral Gold Inc.Our previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/cabral-gold-tsxvcbr-pitch-perfect-november-2025-8486Recording date: 10th December 2025Cabral Gold Inc. (TSXV:CBR) has secured $45 million US in gold loan financing to construct its first mine at the Cuiú Cuiú project in northern Brazil, with commercial production targeted for Q4 2026. The financing structure avoids equity dilution during the critical construction phase, preserving shareholder value whilst enabling the company's transition from explorer to cash-generating producer.Construction activities have accelerated substantially with 143 personnel on site, 50 pieces of heavy equipment operational, and major foundation concrete pours scheduled by year-end. President and CEO Alan Carter confirmed: "We recently raised $45 million US through a gold loan. Projects in construction. We should be producing gold in the fourth quarter of 2026," noting "there was no equity raise as part of that, which I think surprised a lot of people."The project benefits from unusually deep oxide weathering averaging 60 metres – a geological characteristic Carter describes as "quite unusual from most gold deposits around the world." This creates substantial free-digging material processable through simple metallurgical circuits without conventional crushing and grinding infrastructure, enabling low-capital initial operations.Cabral's strategic differentiation centres on its two-stage development approach designed to eliminate serial equity dilution. The initial 1,500 tonnes per day oxide operation generates internal cash flow to fund aggressive exploration of much larger hard rock resources beneath the weathered zone, transforming the company from market-dependent explorer into self-funding entity. Carter articulated the rationale: "We think that the best way to fund all that work that needs to be done is not by continually diluting the capital structure and doing private placement after private placement and ending up with a massive number of shares issued and outstanding."Unlike typical developers focused solely on construction execution, Cabral maintains three drill rigs and 80 exploration personnel operating concurrently with mine building. Recent drone magnetic surveys confirmed clear structural continuity over 2 kilometres between the Central deposit and PDM discovery, with reconnaissance drilling validating gold intersections along the newly identified trend. Carter characterised this as "tremendously exciting," substantially expanding prospective ground between known deposits.Management describes Cuiú Cuiú as a district-scale gold system with four new discoveries since the 2022 resource estimate and 50 additional peripheral targets with identified gold. Carter positioned the oxide operation within this broader context: "The bigger prize at Cuiú Cuiú is the definition of this very, very large gold district that clearly contains multiple deposits."The permitting pathway utilises Brazilian trial mining licences for initial operations with full mining licence approval for 3,000 tonnes per day expansion anticipated January 2026. Recent public consultations demonstrated no community opposition, de-risking regulatory progression. The full permit isn't operationally required until mid-2027, providing comfortable scheduling buffer.Project execution benefits from experienced Brazilian mining personnel including Luis Salaro, who has built multiple coal mines in Brazil, alongside Ausenco engineering support and what Carter describes as "a very impressive group of consultants."Cabral's investment proposition combines near-term production catalyst, non-dilutive financing preserving equity value, and district-scale exploration potential funded through internal cash generation. The parallel execution of construction and exploration positions the company to enter production with an expanded resource base rather than simply a built mine processing fixed inventory, creating multiple value drivers as Cabral transitions from explorer to cash-generating producer with growth optionality in a strong gold price environment.View Cabral Gold's company profile:https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/cabral-goldSign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

Interview with Alex Walker, CEO, East Star ResourcesOur previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/east-star-resources-lseest-driving-towards-near-term-copper-production-in-kazakhstan-4519Recording date: 9th December 2025East Star Resources (LSE: EST) has established a distinctive development model for junior mining companies, securing strategic partnerships that fund exploration and production while maintaining significant equity positions across multiple copper and gold projects in Kazakhstan.The company's approach centers on two major partnerships that fundamentally alter its capital structure. Endeavour Mining, a FTSE 100 company, has committed $5 million over two years with potential for an additional $20 million, while simultaneously taking an equity position to become East Star's largest shareholder. The joint venture targets tier-one gold discoveries of 3+ million ounces, with Endeavour carrying East Star through to prefeasibility studies on successful projects where the company retains 20% ownership.Separately, Hong Kong Shanghai Mining Services - an EPCM contractor that has built over 500 processing plants globally - will fully fund development of the Verkhuba copper deposit to production. East Star retains 30% ownership of the 20 million ton resource grading 1.2% copper without contributing additional capital, with production targeted for 2027-2028.CEO Alex Walker explained the strategy addresses fundamental challenges facing junior explorers: "You can spend a few million dollars per target and not have enough to show for it." The partnership structure allows East Star to advance multiple projects simultaneously while achieving cash flow neutrality in 2026 through management fees and partner funding.The company maintains 100% ownership of three porphyry projects and the Rulikha VMS deposit, which hosts a 500,000+ ton copper equivalent exploration target based on digitized Soviet drilling data. This retained optionality provides leverage to future copper price movements and additional partnership opportunities.Kazakhstan's reformed mining code, modeled on Western Australia's first-come-first-serve system, combined with extensive infrastructure including smelters, railways, and concentrators, provides what Walker describes as "the cheapest place in the world to dig a hole." Recent entry by Ivanhoe, Rio Tinto, and First Quantum validates the jurisdiction's emerging status as a strategic copper-gold province.Learn more: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/east-star-resourcesSign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

Interview with Blake Hylands, CEO, Lithium Ionic Our previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/lithium-ionic-tsxvlth-low-cost-brazil-mine-ready-for-2027-production-as-market-rebalances-8304Recording date: 9th December 2025Lithium Ionic is positioning itself to capitalize on a dramatic market recovery as lithium prices have tripled since mid-2025, driven by energy storage demand exceeding initial projections. CEO Blake Hylands reports the company's stock has doubled during this period but remains "massively undervalued" relative to improving fundamentals and the company's proximity to construction.The company is advancing its Brazilian lithium project with a manageable $191 million capital requirement and industry-leading economics. At $600 all-in sustaining costs, the project maintains profitability even when spot prices dipped to $800-900, providing crucial downside protection that higher-cost competitors lack. Current spot prices around $1,200 offer healthy margins, with the project's feasibility study using conservative assumptions below today's pricing.Hylands emphasised that 2026 represents a transformational year, with construction targeted to begin by mid-year. The company has assembled the experienced "Sigma team" that successfully built the Sigma Lithium project, providing execution credibility and enabling an 18-24 month timeline to production once construction commences. This speed advantage is significant, as competing projects remain 5-10 years from production.Progress on project financing has accelerated substantially, with the company "being inundated with offtake and prepay opportunities" as market participants rush to secure future supply. Multiple lenders have expressed interest in financing the entire project, with discussions spanning China, North America, and other jurisdictions. The financing structure will incorporate near-term debt followed by lower-cost options including export credit agencies and government-backed facilities.The permitting process is advancing through new regional procedures, with strong federal and state government support. Both financing and permits are expected to conclude early in 2026, clearing the path for construction. Hylands set clear accountability metrics, stating "anything less than that, I'd be disappointed" regarding the company's ability to announce financing completion, permit approval, and construction commencement by year-end 2026.Learn more: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/lithium-ionic-corpSign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

Interview with Simon Studer, interim CEO, Kingman MineralsRecording date: 9th December 2025Kingman Minerals Ltd. is advancing plans to revive a 140-year-old gold and silver mine in Arizona's Mohave County, with exploration work set to commence in early 2026. Under the leadership of interim CEO Simon Studer, the company recently completed an oversubscribed $1.5 million financing round that brings total treasury to $2.1 million—sufficient to fund the year's entire exploration program.The Rosebud Mine, discovered in the 1880s and active during the 1920s and 1930s, has yielded remarkably high-grade results in recent sampling. Underground channel samples collected in 2020 revealed values up to 688 grams per ton gold from material left behind by earlier operators. Historical drilling has shown grades ranging from 9-13 grams per ton over 2-meter intervals, though no modern compliant resource estimate currently exists.What makes this opportunity particularly intriguing is that previous operators exclusively focused on the shallow oxide zone above 100 meters depth, never systematically exploring the deeper sulfide mineralization that could represent the bulk of the deposit. The property shows evidence of at least eight distinct sub-parallel vein structures, most of which remain inadequately tested.The 2026 exploration program begins with drone-based magnetometry in mid-December 2025, covering the entire 590-hectare Mohave project area. This geophysical work will provide 3D structural modeling to optimize drill targeting. Drilling is scheduled to begin in Q1 2026, initially testing strike extensions of the two most productive historic veins before expanding to parallel structures.With approximately 42 million shares outstanding and a market capitalization around $4 million, management believes the company is significantly undervalued relative to its high-grade potential and production history. The combination of proven mineralization, systematic modern exploration approach, and 60% insider ownership creates what Studer characterizes as a compelling risk-reward proposition in the junior gold exploration space, particularly given Arizona's favorable mining jurisdiction and existing underground infrastructure.Learn more: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/kingman-mineralsSign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

Interview with Allan Ritchie, Executive Chairman & CEO and David Ward, Managing Director of Adavale ResourcesRecording date: 9th December 2025Adavale Resources Limited (ASX: ADD) has emerged as a compelling Australian gold story, having transformed a A$900,000 acquisition into a 115,000-ounce JORC resource at the London-Victoria project in just nine months. The former BHP gold mine in New South Wales' prolific Lachlan Fold Belt is now the focus of an aggressive exploration and development program led by a management team with significant skin in the game.Executive Chairman Allan Ritchie and newly appointed Managing Director David Ward have structured the company to maximize shareholder alignment. All four directors collectively own over 5% of Adavale and take their remuneration exclusively in shares rather than cash, ensuring minimal corporate overhead. This approach is backed by cornerstone investor Gleneden, who holds 20% of the company and brings decades of resources sector expertise.The technical progress at London-Victoria has been impressive. Phase 1 drilling delivered standout results including 48 meters at 0.82 grams per ton gold, with high-grade zones of 25 meters at 1.2 g/t located 100 meters below the existing pit. Significantly, this intercept occurred outside the current resource envelope, indicating substantial expansion potential. Ward's historical knowledge of the site—having worked for the previous operator—combined with the recent discovery of hundreds of historic BHP grade control maps, is accelerating targeting accuracy.The company employs a dual-strategy approach: advancing London-Victoria toward near-term production through tolling agreements with nearby Alkane Resources' Tomingley facility (50km away), while systematically exploring five greenfields licenses for epithermal and porphyry discoveries. Surface samples at the Ashes prospect have returned up to 10 grams per ton gold, demonstrating early-stage promise.With Phase 2 drilling currently underway at a cost-effective A$350,000 for 13-14 holes, Adavale is executing a capital-efficient program that maintains multiple pathways to value creation in a favorable gold price environment exceeding A$4,000 per ounce.Learn more: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/adavale-resourcesSign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com