Michael Cembalest Does the Math on the Energy Transition

The energy transition is in the midst of its own transition. Spiking electricity demand and geopolitical events are driving up energy prices, while debates over the best sources of generation play out amid supply chain constraints and questions about whether or not the energy crisis in the Strait of Hormuz will accelerate a transition away from oil and gas.  But underneath all those debates is a more basic question: do we have the data, evidence, and analytical clarity that is needed to understand where the energy world actually stands? Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Michael Cembalest about "Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026," the latest installment of Michael's annual "Eye on the Market" energy report. It takes a hard look at the state of the energy transition and the many battles shaping the energy world today, from the so-called "primary energy fallacy," which can obscure how much useful energy renewables actually provide, to China's dominance in the sector, to the economics of electric vehicles. Michael is chairman of market and investment strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Prior to this role he was chief investment officer for J.P. Morgan's Global Private Bank, and has spent his entire career at the bank, joining the securities division in 1987. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

Yesterday, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding starting the clock on a 60-day truce. The agreement intends to halt attacks, begin lifting the US naval blockade, and restore commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. But deep uncertainty remains over how energy will actually flow through the waterway—and over the ultimate fate of Iran's nuclear program. Add to this, an increasingly tense relationship between the US and Israel, which has said it does not consider itself bound by the MOU. And here in the US, political pressure could quickly shift Washington's calculations if the reopening of the Strait yields minimal strategic concessions on Iran's ballistic missiles, nuclear enrichment, and regional proxy networks. So what happens next? How will global energy markets and regional security adjust if this temporary truce collapses? Who ultimately holds the leverage in this next phase of the crisis? To address those and other questions about the ceasefire and the intersection of national and energy security, two people who recently sat at the very center of US foreign policy — Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer — joined Jason Bordoff for a special episode of Columbia Energy Exchange. Jake served as National Security Advisor during the Biden Administration, where he was the chief architect of the 2022 National Security Strategy, coordinated the global response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and designed the "small yard, high fence" framework for US-China technology competition. Last year he joined the Harvard Kennedy School as the Kissinger professor of the practice of statecraft and world order. Jon served alongside him as Deputy National Security Advisor, bringing decades of experience in high-stakes diplomacy, crisis management, and international law to the highest levels of government. Jon held a number of roles in the Obama administration, including chief of staff to Secretary of State John Kerry. And he's a former distinguished visiting fellow at CGEP. They are also the hosts of "The Long Game," an essential podcast for anyone trying to make sense of foreign policy and national security in our world today.  Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

The 109-day-old Iran crisis is heading toward an off-ramp in the form of a not-yet-public Memorandum of Understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While energy markets are celebrating with a sell-off, the actual operational future of the waterway chokepoint remains unclear.   Navigable shipping corridors remain constricted by mines, hundreds of vessels are still trapped, and full recovery could take months. Furthermore, the ground rules have fundamentally shifted, according to reports that Iran intends to enforce its own regulatory protocols and collect mandatory "service fees" for passage.   The global energy map has been deeply altered by a crisis that disrupted as much as 20 million barrels a day, revealing long-term vulnerabilities. How will this 60-day ceasefire window play out as negotiations face roadblocks over nuclear and sanctions issues? And how will the region's oil producers permanently adapt to this new phase of accommodation with Tehran?   Today, host Daniel Sternoff sits down with Center on Global Energy Policy experts Karen Young, Richard Nephew, and Ira Joseph. They break down the strategic, economic, and logistical realities behind this "paper peace," and what the US-Iran deal means for the future of global energy security. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff, Bill Loveless, and Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

The clean energy transition had real momentum at the end of 2024. It was buoyed by federal support, billions of dollars of investment in new technologies, and broad acknowledgment of the costs of climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions. But major roadblocks have emerged over the past 18 months. US support for some forms of clean energy was revoked. And rising energy costs, due in part to an urgent call for data center build-out, have made affordability a priority for many stakeholders. The challenge is truly daunting. Despite significant clean energy investments, some 80 percent of the world's energy is still derived from fossil fuels. Tariffs and supply disruptions have made clean energy infrastructure harder to build. So what does all of this mean for the speed and scale of the energy transition? How are businesses navigating so much instability when billions of dollars and decades-long infrastructure commitments are at stake? And what does this all say about whether the global energy system can ever be clean, accessible, and affordable? Today on the show, Bill Loveless speaks with Jessica Uhl about the challenges of and opportunities for making energy abundant, accessible, and clean.  Jessica has held senior leadership roles in upstream oil and gas, renewables, and power technology, including serving as CFO of Shell and later as president of GE Vernova. Jessica is now a senior advisor with the Three Cairns Group, an investment and philanthropic firm focused on the climate crisis. She also serves on a number of boards, including the executive and advisory boards at the Center on Global Energy Policy.  Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

For years, the energy transition was discussed as a shift that would happen in steady, predictable increments. But a massive surge in electricity demand in recent years—now colliding with a fracturing geopolitical landscape—has reshaped the global race for clean, reliable power.   All this has pulled nuclear energy back to the center of the national conversation—with many policymakers from both sides of the aisle calling for a nuclear renaissance. But past multi-billion dollar cost overruns on traditional gigawatt-scale projects still hang over the sector, even as a novel pipeline of small modular reactors and other advanced nuclear technologies promise to reshape the grid. This has put renewed attention on whether the US regulatory system is ready for the scale and speed of what's needed.   So what reforms are key to supporting the US nuclear energy sector? What needs to be done to ensure speed, safety, and predictability? And where do policymakers need to be careful to preserve the credibility, independence, and public trust that make nuclear regulation durable over the long term?   Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Ashley Finan and Amy Roma about the growing nuclear industry and evolving landscape of nuclear regulation.   Ashley is the Jay and Jill Bernstein fellow here at the Center on Global Energy Policy and previously served in senior leadership roles at Idaho National Laboratory, where she worked on nuclear energy and national security issues.   Amy is a partner at the law firm Orrick, where she advises clients on legal, business, and policy matters related to the existing nuclear fleet, as well as advanced reactors, fusion facilities, and supporting nuclear infrastructure. She is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

Despite all the advancements we have achieved globally in recent decades, as many as 750 million people still lack access to electricity. Tackling energy poverty requires far more than linking communities to an electric grid. Closing the massive disparity in opportunity for people around the world will require building energy abundance, not just access. Energy is prosperity, and one way to measure it is by the Modern Energy Minimum. Developed by the Energy for Growth Hub, this benchmark posits that a truly modern life requires at least 1,000 kilowatt-hours per person, per year—10 to 20 times the amount typically used to define electricity access.  Here at the Center on Global Energy Policy we're partnering with the Rockefeller Foundation to launch a High-Level Panel on Universal Energy Abundance. The panel is dedicated to providing decision-makers with the insights needed to drive industrialization, job creation, and broad-based prosperity across emerging economies.  So how can we develop and invest in energy infrastructure globally in a way that supports prosperity? What role should governments play? Do the right tools to improve access exist? And how do we navigate the tension between energy growth and climate policy?  Today on the show, Jason speaks with Katie Auth about energy's role in driving lasting economic change and why the modern energy minimum model could produce a meaningfully better standard of living in developing economies. Katie is the deputy executive director at the Energy for Growth Hub, which works to end poverty through sustainable development and climate resilience. She's also a non-resident fellow on US-Africa relations at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a member of the Economic Advisory Council for the U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation. Previously, she spent seven years at the U.S. Agency for International Development, including as senior development finance advisor and acting deputy coordinator of Power Africa. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

For years, the energy transition was discussed as a shift that would happen in steady, predictable increments. But the last 24 months have shattered that illusion. Energy providers now face extreme industrial volatility—where companies tasked with building the future of clean energy are also grappling with multi-billion dollar losses, supply chain fragility, and a sudden, massive surge in power demand. As the president and CEO of Siemens Energy, Christian Bruch sits at the epicenter of these contradictions. The company is a global giant, responsible for a massive portion of the world's power generation and transmission infrastructure. Yet, even a company of this scale has not been immune to the existential challenges of the modern energy market. In 2023, its wind division, Siemens Gamesa, suffered major technical and financial setbacks. Since then, Siemens Energy has staged a significant turnaround. Its wind business is back on track and Siemens Energy is seeing unprecedented demand for its gas turbines and grid technology, driven largely by demand from data centers to power artificial intelligence.  All of this makes the company a useful lens through which to understand where the global energy system is headed as energy infrastructure providers sprint to keep up with the world's thirst for electricity. What does the "speed to power" mean for the pace of decarbonization? And how is the role of an energy CEO changing in a world where industrial strategy and geopolitics are now inseparable? Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Christian Bruch about the opportunities and challenges that Siemens Energy is facing today, from surging electricity demand and growing infrastructure investments, to geopolitical headwinds and supply risks. Christian is the president and CEO of Siemens Energy as well as the president and CEO of Siemens Energy Management. Earlier in his career, he worked for more than 15 years at the Linde Group, a global industrial gases and engineering company, where he held a number of leadership roles. He started his career with the German energy company RWE Group, rising  to head of research and project development at RWE Fuel Cells. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

The Iran crisis is in its 80th day. Right now, roughly 1,500 vessels laden with oil, natural gas, fertilizers, and oil products sit trapped in the Persian Gulf by a dual US-Iranian blockade. One thing is certain: prolonging this standoff for another 80 days risks triggering profound global economic consequences. Global oil inventories are depleting fast and are projected to hit critical levels by the end of June.  For the Trump administration—caught between accepting Iranian power over the Strait of Hormuz or risking a major military escalation—the path of least resistance may be to keep maintaining a naval blockade of Iranian oil sales to China. The stakes escalated further this month when Washington sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical—China's second-largest independent refiner—prompting Beijing to retaliate with unprecedented blocking rules against US sanctions. How will this high-stakes standoff play out in the coming weeks? And how will the worsening US-China rivalry reshape the Middle East conflict? Today, host Daniel Sternoff sits down with Cory Combs, Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research at Trivium China. Cory leads Trivium's cross-cutting research on climate, energy, and industrial policy, advising both governments and multinational corporations. He joins us to break down the volatile triangular relationship between Washington, Beijing, and Tehran, and what it means for global energy security and the Strait of Hormuz.  Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

Much of the world's attention today is understandably focused on conflict in the Middle East, and the immediate implications for energy markets and global security. But other regions remain strategically important because of critical minerals, emerging shipping routes, military positioning, and energy security. Among these regions are Greenland and the broader Arctic. The far north is key to geopolitical competition among the United States, China, and Russia. Though it has fallen out of the recent news cycle, President Trump put Greenland and its resources in the spotlight last year by calling for US control of the Danish territory. So how significant are Greenland's energy resources and geography? How should we think about its mineral resources in the context of supply chains and China? And how might the Arctic's fast-changing climate affect the region's communities, culture, and geopolitical importance? Today on the show, Bill Loveless speaks with Iris Ferguson about Greenland's strategic significance, and how the Arctic is changing, both physically as well as geopolitically.  Iris is the president and founder of IAF Strategies and a non-resident senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. From 2022 to 2025 she served as the inaugural deputy assistant secretary of defense for Arctic and global resilience, advising the Pentagon on protecting US and allied interests in the Arctic. Previously, Iris served as an advisor to the US Air Force, where she authored the service's first Arctic strategy. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

In moments of geopolitical crisis, energy is never just a backdrop. It's often at the center of the story. Today, as conflict involving Iran sends shockwaves through global oil markets and raises fears of supply disruptions, the stakes for policymakers in Washington couldn't be higher.  Prices are rising, risks are multiplying. And as we've seen in recent weeks, there are no easy solutions when energy and national security collide. So what does effective decision-making look like inside the White House at times like these? Today on the show, to help answer that question, Bill Loveless speaks with Bob McNally and Jason Bordoff. Both of them served as energy advisors during past US administrations. They joined Bill to reflect on what they learned about navigating energy crises from inside the White House. Bob McNally is the founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, an independent energy consulting and market advisory firm. From 2001 to 2003 he served on the White House National Economic Council as special assistant to President George W. Bush. And in 2003, he was the senior director for international energy on the National Security Council. His 2017 book, Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom Bust Oil Prices, examines the history of oil price swings.  Jason Bordoff is Columbia Energy Exchange co-host and the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs, where he is a professor of professional practice. He is also on the faculty of the Columbia Climate School where he is co-founding dean emeritus. He previously served as special assistant to President Barack Obama and senior director for energy and climate change on the staff of the National Security Council. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.