The economy is growing!

As Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs keep shifting, leaving countries scrambling to react, there has been some good news for Keir Starmer and the Labour government. Speaking to UnHerd, the US vice-president J.D. Vance spoke up the UK’s chances of securing a trade deal. While this would be a win for Starmer, questions remain over the substance – from agriculture to food, what would be included? And can we really believe it will happen? The Spectator’s political editor Katy Balls and deputy US editor Kate Andrews join Patrick Gibbons to discuss.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Panic has subsided over the British Steel crisis as Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, while visiting the site in Scunthorpe, confirmed that the raw materials needed to keep the furnaces running have been secured. While questions remain over the long-term future of the site, the Government are quite confident in their handling of the crisis so far – something not unhelpful with just over two weeks to go from the local elections. Less helpful is the news that over in Birmingham workers have rejected a pay deal with the Labour-run city council; the bin strike will continue. Is there more the government could be doing to end the dispute? Political editor Katy Balls and former Political Secretary to Tony Blair John McTernan join Patrick Gibbons to discuss.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Parliament was recalled from Easter recess for a rare Saturday sitting of Parliament yesterday, to debate the future of British Steel. Legislation was passed to allow the government to take control of the Chinese-owned company – Conservative MP David Davis called this 'nationalisation in all but name'. Though, with broad support across the House including from Reform leader Nigel Farage, the debate centred less around the cure and more around the cause.  Katy Balls and James Heale join Patrick Gibbons to discuss the debate, the political reaction and how much of a precedent this sets for Starmer.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Globalisation's obituary has been written many times before but, with the turmoil caused over the past few weeks with Donald Trump's various announcements on tariffs, could this mark the beginning of the end for the economic order as we know it? Tej Parikh from the Financial Times and Kate Andrews, The Spectator's deputy US editor, join economics editor Michael Simmons to make the case for why globalisation will outlive Trump. Though, as the US becomes one of the most protectionist countries in the developed world, how much damage has been done to the reputation of the US? And to what extent do governments need to adapt? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Finally, some good news for your Friday: the economy is growing! Just when everyone seems to be revising down expectations of growth, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that GDP grew by 0.5 per cent in February. It also revised January’s figures upwards to give growth for the last quarter of 0.6 per cent, and annual growth of 1.4 per cent. It looks – for now – that the Reeves recession has been put on hold and that Labour's growth agenda could be working. That said, Labour cannot afford to celebrate just yet. There is reason to believe the figures could be overstated, and there are some trust issues with the ONS – the government last week announced a review of its ‘performance and culture’. These figures also do not take into account the tumult caused by Trump's tariffs. So what can we read into them? Will Trump undo Labour's progress? Lucy Dunn speaks to Michael Simmons and Katy Balls. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Two days ago, talk of a 90-day pause on Donald Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ was branded ‘fake news’ by the White House. But yesterday, the President confirmed a 90-day pause on the higher tariff rates on all countries apart from China. There is some confusion about whether this was The Donald's plan from the start – although the safe assumption is that it wasn't, and that someone senior in the White House sat him down and explained the market chaos he has caused. Is this 'the art of the deal’? Regarding China, the President wrote: ‘Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125 per cent, effective immediately.’ This is an increase on Trump’s part from the 104 per cent levy, which China countered with an 84 per cent tariff on American imports. What should we expect from the US–China trade war? Katy Balls speaks to Cindy Yu and Kate Andrews. Produced by Cindy Yu and Oscar Edmondson.

Trump’s levies have kicked in today: including an astonishing 102 per cent tariff on China – after it missed the deadline to withdraw its retaliatory tariffs – and 20 per cent on the European Union. The combination of these explosive tariffs has sent markets sliding once again. This follows a slight recovery in the markets yesterday after suggestions by some in the Trump administration that they may be willing to negotiate the tariffs down. In the UK, the economic uncertainty has ‘turbocharged’ plans which have been whispered around Westminster for some time, including nationalising the British steel industry. Attention has also turned towards a trade deal with the US, and the complexion that might take in a post-tariff landscape and in the context of the EU reset. There is hope in government that a deal could be done in the next month. Are the tariffs forcing the government into action? How does Starmer keep both the EU and the US on side? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Shanker Singham, CEO of Competere and a former trade adviser to the UK government. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Parliament is about to go into recess for the Easter holiday and so – as is customary – Keir Starmer sat in front of the Liaison Committee this afternoon, where he was grilled on topics including tariffs, defence and welfare. This comes on the day when there has been a momentary reprieve in the markets, which experienced a modest bounce – most likely as a result of suggestions from Trump that he is willing to negotiate with China. Markets seem to have priced in that these tariffs could be negotiated down, but that is of course a big 'if'. The question remains for Keir Starmer: what more can he do to protect the UK against economic meltdown? And will he have to break his fiscal rules to do so? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Isabel Hardman and Michael Simmons. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

The fallout from Trump’s tariffs continues. Last week, Donald Trump ended the free-trade era that has underpinned growth for decades (and potentially also heralded the end of globalisation). Markets around the world have taken a nosedive, prompting fears of a global recession. The only (brief) reprieve was when stock markets rallied because of a misunderstanding regarding comments made by Trump’s economic adviser. Once these had been clarified, the Nasdaq dipped once again. Republicans are starting to turn on Trump – including Elon Musk, who has been sending out some coded tweets. The strength of the reaction from the markets has drawn comparisons between Trump and Liz Truss, whose mini-Budget spooked the markets so comprehensively that she had to backtrack after just ten days. Might Trump do the same?   Meanwhile, Keir Starmer has intervened in an effort to protect the UK car industry against Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs. What other levers can he pull to reduce the impact on Brits?   Lucy Dunn speaks to Katy Balls and Kate Andrews.   Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Marine Le Pen, president of Rassemblement National (National Rally) was found guilty this week of embezzling EU funds to boost her party’s finances. The guilty verdict was widely expected, however her sentence was far harsher than even her strongest critics expected – part of which saw her banned from standing for office for five years, with immediate effect. Le Pen had been the favourite to win the next French presidential election in 2027. Pursuing Donald Trump through the courts was widely seen as backfiring as he went on to win the presidential election, and many have argued that there is a double standard with many more figures and parties facing investigation from the right than from the left. Is this a case of justice served, or another example of creeping lawfare across the West? Deputy political editor James Heale discusses with our deputy editor Freddy Gray and French journalist and writer Anne-Elisabeth Moutet.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.