Trump and China — Deal or No Deal?

In the face of Donald Trump's tariffs, will China's plans to boost its domestic consumer economy succeed — or could the government in Beijing be tempted to introduce massive stimulus measures, as it did after the financial crisis in 2008? In this episode of China in Context, leading scholar Yasheng Huang, professor of global economics and management at MIT's Sloan School of Management, explains why China's political resilience in a trade war may be greater than its economic resilience — and argues that, despite the current obsession with high technology, reforms of land ownership and the rights of rural citizens and migrant labourers could be key to China’s long term economic prosperity.Professor Huang's forthcoming book, Statism with Chinese Characteristics — a revised version of his 2008 work Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics — draws on lessons from China's response to the 2008 crisis to highlight the country's current challenges.________________________________________The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and are not necessarily those of the SOAS China Institute.________________________________________SOAS China Institute (SCI) SCI Blog SCI on X SCI on LinkedIn SCI on Facebook SCI on Instagram ________________________________________Music credit: Sappheiros / CC BY 3.0

Taiwan is facing a range of challenges — from Donald Trump's threat of 32% tariffs on its crucial exports to the US, to massive Chinese military exercises off its coastline aimed at intimidating the island's leaders. If that weren't enough, the DPP administration, led by President William Lai, has seen its budget slashed by Taiwan’s legislature, which is now dominated by its main rival, the KMT, or Chinese Nationalist Party. It's resulted in months of protests and political wrangling. So how will Taiwan's economy and society cope with these challenges? In the latest episode of China in Context, Dr. Michael Reilly, senior fellow on the Taiwan Studies Programme at the University of Nottingham, and a former British diplomat who was previously the UK's senior representative in Taiwan, analyses the island's political and economic situation, in conversation with Duncan Hewitt.Photo credit: 總統府 / CC BY 2.0________________________________________The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and are not necessarily those of the SOAS China Institute.________________________________________SOAS China Institute (SCI) SCI Blog SCI on X SCI on LinkedIn SCI on Facebook SCI on Instagram ________________________________________Music credit: Sappheiros / CC BY 3.0

At this month’s legislative session China announced policies to maintain GDP growth at 5%, boost consumption and the private sector and promote AI and high tech industry, from quantum computing to the low altitude economy. But will it be enough to reassure consumers and investors — and does the higher than GDP growth increase in defence spending in the budget, and the continuing crackdown on corruption hint that the leadership’s top priorities are still security and stability rather than growth? Professor Steve Tsang, Director of the SOAS China Institute and co-author of the recent book, The Political Thought of Xi Jinping, and George Magnus, former Chief Economist at UBS, and a Research Associate at SOAS and at the Oxford University China Centre, share their views.________________________________________The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and are not necessarily those of the SOAS China Institute.________________________________________SOAS China Institute (SCI) SCI Blog SCI on X SCI on LinkedIn SCI on Facebook SCI on Instagram ________________________________________Music credit: Sappheiros / CC BY 3.0

In this episode we look at the life and work of Lynn Pan, one of the most imaginative of writers in English about modern China and particularly Shanghai, who died last year, and was commemorated at a special event at the Hong Kong International Literary Festival earlier this month. Her books, including In Search of Old Shanghai, The New Chinese Revolution, Sons of the Yellow Emperor, Shanghai Style and When True Love Came to China, were accessible, often witty, and always deeply researched. Duncan Hewitt discusses her legacy with Paul French, author of Midnight in Peking and Her Lotus Year, Frances Wood,  SOAS Research Associate and former curator of Chinese collections at the British Library, and Michelle Garnaut, founder of the Shanghai Literary Festival. With a further contribution from Jeffrey Wasserstrom, Chancellor’s Professor of History at University of California, Irvine.Photo of Lynn Pan by Robert Martin.________________________________________The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and are not necessarily those of the SOAS China Institute.________________________________________SOAS China Institute (SCI) SCI Blog SCI on X SCI on LinkedIn SCI on Facebook SCI on Instagram ________________________________________Music credit: Sappheiros / CC BY 3.0

With the US imposing new tariffs on Chinese exports, the state of the country’s domestic economy has become all the more crucial. Despite healthy export growth in recent years, at home consumer confidence has plummeted, with rising youth unemployment and a slump in the once booming housing market. Will recent government steps to reassure consumers and entrepreneurs and stimulate property sales be enough to revive the economy? Or does soaring local government debt mean more creative solutions are required?In this episode, we hear two perspectives on China’s economic challenges — from economist Andy Rothman, founder of Sinology LLC, and Professor Victor Shih, director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego, and author of the newly published book, Elite Conflicts and the Path to Economic Decentralization (2025, CUP).________________________________________The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and are not necessarily those of the SOAS China Institute.________________________________________SOAS China Institute (SCI) SCI Blog SCI on X SCI on LinkedIn SCI on Facebook SCI on Instagram ________________________________________Music credit: Sappheiros / CC BY 3.0

Donald Trump's new tariffs on Chinese exports may only boost the trend for Chinese companies to seek new markets and manufacturing bases overseas — including in Africa, where China is now the biggest trading partner and source of loans. On this episode, we discuss 'Made in Ethiopia', a new film looking at the human impact of Chinese involvement in Africa's industrialisation, with its directors Xinyan Yu and Max Duncan — and debate China's wider relationship with the continent with Professor Carlos Oya, head of the Department of Development Studies at SOAS, University of London.________________________________________The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and are not necessarily those of the SOAS China Institute.________________________________________SOAS China Institute (SCI) SCI Blog SCI on X SCI on LinkedIn SCI on Facebook SCI on Instagram ________________________________________Music credit: Sappheiros / CC BY 3.0

Donald Trump is promising to challenge China on everything from its exports to its global influence over the next four years, but what could this mean in practice? Professor Miles Yu of the Hudson Institute, principal advisor on China policy to former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during the first Trump administration, and Professor Evan Medeiros of Georgetown University, former senior director for Asia at the White House National Security Council under President Obama share their views on China in Context.________________________________________The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and are not necessarily those of the SOAS China Institute.________________________________________SOAS China Institute (SCI) SCI Blog SCI on X SCI on LinkedIn SCI on Facebook SCI on Instagram ________________________________________Music credit: Sappheiros / CC BY 3.0

At the recent COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, China was seen as having played a part in getting an agreement — albeit a much criticised one — to increase funding to mitigate the climate crisis. And with Donald Trump threatening to pull the U.S, out of climate change mechanisms, Beijing’s role could become even more important. But China, now the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, continues to reject calls for it to be given developed nation status, which would require it to make increased financial contributions to tackle climate change. Journalist Isabel Hilton, founder of China Dialogue, discuses China's role in the climate talks, and its domestic environmental problems, with presenter Duncan Hewitt.________________________________________In the light of recent developments, this episode was edited on 10 December 2024 to remove a more detailed reference to the podcast's former host, Duncan Bartlett, who left China in Context in September 2024. The SOAS China Institute would like to express its condemnation of his abhorrent behaviour, of which it was unaware at the time, and for which he has now been jailed, and expresses the utmost sympathy to his victims.________________________________________The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and are not necessarily those of the SOAS China Institute.________________________________________SOAS China Institute (SCI) SCI Blog SCI on X SCI on LinkedIn SCI on Facebook SCI on Instagram ________________________________________Music credit: Sappheiros / CC BY 3.0

What will Donald Trump’s re-election mean for relations between China and the US? Is Beijing alarmed by his threats of massive new trade tariffs, and the unpredictability that he likes to boast about? Or will it see his relative lack of interest in global affairs — and his love of a deal — as a chance to increase its leverage and put more pressure on Taiwan, while boosting its influence in the South China Sea? Presenter Duncan Hewitt discusses these issues with Jim McGregor, Chairman for Greater China at APCO Worldwide, Professor Steve Tsang, Director of the SOAS China Institute, and BBC Asia correspondent Rupert Wingfield-Hayes.  This podcast was recorded on 13 November 2024, shortly before it was confirmed that Donald Trump had nominated Marco Rubio as Secretary of State.________________________________________The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and are not necessarily those of the SOAS China Institute.________________________________________SOAS China Institute (SCI) SCI Blog SCI on X SCI on LinkedIn SCI on Facebook SCI on Instagram ________________________________________Music credit: Sappheiros / CC BY 3.0

The Chinese Communist Party guides the thinking of the masses through slogans. Some of these are written in huge letters on walls around the country. They are studied by party members, who try to figure out how society should respond. One of the most famous slogans is "reform and opening up." It has been in constant use since the late 1970s and although its meaning has changed significantly since then, Sinologists believe it remains a guiding principle for Xi Jinping. In this podcast, presenter Duncan Bartlett asks Professor Steve Tsang, Director of the SOAS China Institute, about the meaning of the phrase and its significance.________________________________________The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and are not necessarily those of the SOAS China Institute.________________________________________SOAS China Institute (SCI) SCI Blog SCI on X SCI on LinkedIn SCI on Facebook SCI on Instagram ________________________________________Music credit: Sappheiros / CC BY 3.0