Winners and Losers: Russia, China, and Europe Respond to the Iran War

Seven weeks into the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, and with an uneasy ceasefire in place, it may be too early to predict conclusive winners and losers. How are Russia and China, two of Iran’s closet allies, faring in the balance sheet as the war drags on? And what of Europe, especially France, Germany, and Britain, who appeared blindsided by the war are now under pressure to support the United States’ war aims? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Carnegie’s Rosa Balfour, Evan Feigenbaum, and Alexander Gabuev to unpack how these major powers are relating to the current conflict and how the Trump administration is responding to them, on Carnegie Connects.

More than one month in, the United States and Israel’s war against Iran has resulted in what the International Energy Agency termed the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” Iran’s ability to control what passes through the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted a fifth of the world's daily oil supply, along with the flow of other commodities such as helium, liquid natural gas, and fertilizer, adding to inflationary pressures globally.  Prospects for a diplomatic exit look bleak and military options to fully open the Strait presents formidable challenges. So, what does the current crisis portend for the global supply of oil and hydrocarbons? Who are the big winners and losers as the world tries to adapt to energy market disruptions? And what lessons, if any, can be drawn from the unfolding crisis? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Helima Croft, head of Global Commodity Strategy and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Research at RBC Capital Markets, on the current crisis and the future of oil and hydrocarbons, on Carnegie Connects.

The Trump Administration’s war against Iran has highlighted one of the stranger paradoxes of America’s longstanding relationship with Israel—at a time when Israel’s image in the United States is at low point, cooperation and coordination with Washington has reached an all-time high. One would be hard pressed to identify any large-scale U.S. miliary campaign in decades in which there has been greater partnership between allies.  Is the foundation of this alliance —common and shared values; a high coincidence of interests; and strong base of domestic support — under stress? What of the relationship between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump? And what does the future of the relationship hold for US and Israeli interests in a complex and volatile region?  Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Middle East Institute’s Yael Lempert, Princeton’s Daniel Kurtzer, and the Atlantic Council’s Daniel Shapiro, three former U.S. ambassadors to the region with deep experience on the U.S.-Israeli relationship, on the next Carnegie Connects.  

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched military, cyber, and intelligence operations against Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed and strikes were conducted on a broad array of targets, including other senior Iranian leadership compounds, IRGC bases, and missile launchers and production facilities. In response, Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles against U.S. bases, Israel and countries in the Gulf, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar.  With no signs of the conflict winding down and unclear goals and timelines from leadership in Washington, where is this war headed? Was there ever a serious prospect for negotiations between the United States and Iran? What is the likely impact of the death of Ayatollah Khamenei on succession and the stability of the regime? Is meaningful and lasting regime change or transformation possible?  Join Aaron David Miller as engages with the Brooking Institution’s Suzanne Maloney, International Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez, and Yale University’s Rob Malley on these and other Iran-related issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.

Four years on from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war drags on, seemingly with no end in sight. The enormity and scale of death and destruction seem unfathomable, with a front line stretching 750 miles and little indication that either side has fundamentally altered the military balance of power. Negotiation under U.S. auspices in various venues and formats continue with no sign that any diplomatic pathway is imminent.  What is the likely trajectory on the battlefield in 2026? Can Russian President Vladimir Putin wage war without end? What of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s politics and policies, including a potential upcoming election? And does the Trump Administration have a strategy to reach a ceasefire, let alone an end to the war, and on what terms?   Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Eric Ciaramella, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a nonresident scholar in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program and former defense minister of Ukraine, and Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, in a wide-ranging discussion of Russia’s war against Ukraine four years on, on the next Carnegie Connects.

A year into President Donald Trump’s second term, the state and fate of the American Republic is uncertain and precarious.  At home, an unprecedented expansion of presidential power has undermined norms and institutions and threatened democratic governance. American politics remain polarized, taking on a tribal and personal character with disagreements often cast as struggles between good and bad. And abroad, the administration’s pursuit of an “America first” policy has undermined the trust of traditional allies and opened up opportunities for U.S. adversaries.What can Americans expect from the next three years of the Trump administration? What should allies be preparing for given an increasingly expansionist and aggressive U.S. foreign policy? And what are the obligations and responsibilities of citizens during these difficult times?  Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Pulitzer Prize winning author and The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.  

Protests in Iran have now engulfed its major cities and all 31 provinces, creating a mass movement incorporating all elements of Iranian society, despite a comprehensive internet blackout.  The regime, blaming the United States and Israel for the sweeping movement, is casting the protests as a continuation of its twelve-day war with Israel and is cracking down hard, with the death toll rising. The Institute for the Study of War has reported that more Iranian security forces have been killed than in any previous periods of unrest. Now, President Donald Trump is vowing U.S. intervention in support of the protestors. How are these demonstrations different than others in the past? What are the Iranian regime’s options for suppressing them? Are we nearing the point of regime fracture or the end of Ayatollah Khomeini’s reign altogether? And how should the United States respond?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages two veteran Iran analysts, the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour and the New Yorker’s Robin Wright in conversation to discuss the unfolding crisis in Iran and America’s reaction, on the next Carnegie Connects.

In the first year of his second term, President Donald Trump has pursued an aggressive foreign policy that has shattered the norms and conventions that have guided almost all of his Republican and Democratic predecessors. Although the administration has framed this as an “America first” agenda that will strengthen the nation’s standing around the world and bring prosperity at home, the U.S. national interest now appears tethered to the president’s personal vanities, prejudices, and his political and financial interests. Is the recently articulated National Security Strategy a reliable guide as to how the administration will act going forward? Does the recent use of military power in Venezuela represent a one-off headline or does it foreshadow more aggressive action under the “Donroe Doctrine”? And is this the sunsetting of once traditional U.S. values and the rise of foreign policy driven by displaying American power and might?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Council on Foreign Relations’ Rebecca Lissner and the Stimson Center’s Emma Ashford on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.

The decision by the U.S. President Donald Trump administration to seize Venezuelan President Nicholás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to stand trial in the United States reflects the administration’s willingness to undertake a muscular intervention in the Western Hemisphere. Delcy Rodríguez, who served as Maduro’s vice president since 2018, has taken over as the interim president and seems to be on an uncertain path forward working with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, Trump’s statement that the United States plans to “run” Venezuela until a permanent, stable transition can be realized raises more questions than it answers, in Venezuela and about U.S. foreign policy at large.  What precisely are the Trump administration’s objectives in Venezuela? Was this a law enforcement operation or a serious effort to create a new political reality in Venezuela? Who are the key Venezuelan players the United States needs to engage and what is the role of the Venezuelan military? And what are the administration’s intentions toward the Venezuelan oil industry and the role of American companies? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the International Crisis Group’s Phil Gunson, the Baker Institute’s Francisco Monaldi, and Johns Hopkins SAIS’s Cindy Arnson on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects. 

As 2025 draws to a close, the fate of the Trump administration’s twenty point plan to end the war in Gaza, disarming Hamas and withdrawing Israeli forces, and facilitate good governance, security and reconstruction, has run headlong into harsh Middle Eastern realities. The administration is promising a transition to phase two by the end of the year, but the status of the International Stabilization Force and an on the ground Palestinian governing structure seem more theoretical than real. What are the chances of implementation of the Trump plan, particularly on security? What, or who, will actually govern Gaza? And what of the other U.S. efforts in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran? Join Aaron David Miller as he addresses these issues and others with Carnegie’s Marwan Muasher, Israel Policy Forum’s Nimrod Novik, and former Palestinian Authority adviser Manal Zeidan, on the next Carnegie Connects.