Tariffs, Tankers, and Data Centre Tensions

This podcast is also available as a video on Youtube This week on the podcast, our guest is Dulles Wang, Director of Americas Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie. Dulles co-authored the report Defying Gravity: Why U.S. Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices Are Set to Rise. He is also bullish on the longer-term outlook for Alberta natural gas prices (AECO). The report comes as natural gas prices in the United States and Canada are depressed by abundant supply, especially in Canada, combined with an outlook for very warm winter weather. Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Dulles: After years of low natural gas prices and abundant supply, why do you expect prices to rise? Is there a risk that supply could surprise again and continue growing fast enough to keep pace with demand growth, despite low prices? How do warmer winters affect the outlook, given that they appear to be becoming more common, including expectations for this upcoming winter? What is your outlook for Alberta natural gas prices and Canadian LNG exports? This has been a big year for M&A involving U.S. shale gas assets, with a new group of buyers that includes Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC, Saudi Aramco, and Japanese companies. What is driving this trend, and do you expect it to come to Canada? Content referenced in this podcast: Mark Carney Forward Guidance: A Stronger Canada video (September 8, 2026) Wood Mackenzie report, Defying gravity: Why US Henry Hub natural gas prices are set to rise (July 2026) FT article, Scramble for gas assets pushes dealmaking to a decade high (August 30, 2026) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

This week on the podcast, our guest is Vern Yu, President and CEO of AltaGas. AltaGas operates a midstream business focused on processing, transporting and marketing hydrocarbons, including natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs), such as propane and butane. The company also operates natural gas utilities in four U.S. states. Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Vern: Based on your experience, particularly in your previous role at Enbridge, how difficult was it to build oil pipelines in Canada historically, and are you optimistic that this is changing? How long has AltaGas been exporting liquefied petroleum gases (LPGs) from Prince Rupert, and how much will volumes grow once the new Ridley Island Energy Export Facility (REEF) is completed? How would you describe Asian demand for LPGs and Canada’s competitive position relative to the United States and the Middle East? Is the growth of AltaGas’s LPG business dependent on aggressive natural gas production growth in Western Canada? AltaGas distributes natural gas in several U.S. markets through your utilities, including Virginia, a hot spot for data-centre growth. What are your growth expectations for data centres, given the growing opposition in Virgina? As a company operating in both Canada and the United States, and even supplying natural gas to the White House, how is the U.S.-Canada trade war affecting your business? Content referenced in this podcast: Video of construction at Ridley Island Energy Export Facility (REEF) on LinkedIn  Enbridge Tour for Cancer (Register for 2027 and Donate) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify

The podcast is back after the summer break! Peter and Jackie begin with the escalating U.S.–Canada trade war, including renewed calls to use Canadian energy exports as leverage by reducing exports or imposing tariffs. Both approaches would hurt Canada more than the United States. They also discuss Canada’s new counter-tariffs, which take effect on September 8. Next, they examine oil markets as the Strait of Hormuz closes again. With tanker traffic low and difficult to track, and refined-product markets tight, uncertainty remains high, with risks seemingly skewed toward higher oil prices in the near term. They also discuss growing opposition to data centres, including permitting pauses in several U.S. states and local concerns about Meta’s planned development in Sturgeon County, Alberta. Peter and Jackie then review Canadian LNG and oil pipeline developments from over the summer. Finally, Graeme Edge, founder and CEO of Energy Disruptors, joins the podcast to preview the conference taking place in Calgary on September 28 and 29. Content referenced on this podcast: CAPP Data Hub and the specific Data Book titled “Canadian Imports of U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Refined Products”  ARC podcast on the Impacts of Tariffs on Canadian Oil and Gas from January 14, 2025  List of products from the United States subject to counter-tariffs effective September 8, 2026 - Canada.ca Calgary Herald article that Anthropic, maker of Claude, is looking to put boots on the Ground in Alberta (August 20, 2026) Alberta Premier Smith video on six common questions on AI data centers Montana Revokes Bridger Pipeline Waiver After Legal Challenge, Pipeline & Gas Journal, July 29, 2026 The Pipeline Comes First, Studio.Energy, August 25, 2026  Energy Disruptors conference information Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify 

This week’s podcast is the final episode before Peter and Jackie take a summer break. The show will return to its weekly schedule in September. The episode begins with oil market news, as conflict with Iran flares up again and the Strait of Hormuz re-emerges as a critical chokepoint. Peter and Jackie discuss higher-than-expected global oil inventories at this point in the conflict, recent demand trends, and changes in China’s oil imports. While longer-term shifts, including substitution and the rerouting of oil around the Strait, are easier to anticipate, the short-term outlook remains highly uncertain. Next, they recap the Calgary Stampede pipeline announcements, including the proposed West Coast oil pipeline and the earlier-stage Alberta-to-Ontario project. They also revisit frequently asked questions raised in conversations with the media and industry over the past week. Finally, they review the news of Meta’s proposed $13 billion Alberta data centre project, along with the Greenlight Limited Partnership power project announced on July 2. They close by considering growing opposition to data centres, a topic Peter discussed at the Upper Bound conference in Edmonton this past May,  where he participated on a panel exploring what the AI industry can learn from the energy sector. Content referenced in this podcast:Alberta’s West Coast Oil Pipeline Submission to the Major Projects Office (July 2, 2026) Jackie Forrest’s Globe and Mail op-ed “The Iran war, the Saudis’ bold bet and why Canada needs a new pipeline” (May 6, 2026) Jackie Forrest’s Globe and Mail op-ed “Finally, Canada steps up as the energy superpower the world needs it to be” (July 1, 2026) Chris Varcoe in the Calgary Herald “Meta unveils massive $13B, gigawatt-scale development in Alberta, Canada's largest data centre” (July 8, 2026) Meta’s Sturgeon Data Centre information  Upper Bound conference in Edmonton, recording of the conference panel on What AI can learn from the energy sector’s scars that Peter Tertzakian participated in (held May 2026) A report by Data Center Watch on opposition (Q1 2026 update)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/Check us out on social media:X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

This week, the podcast starts with news on the West Coast oil pipeline. On July 2, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced that a pipeline project exceeding 1 MMB/d was ready to be submitted to the Major Projects Office. Earlier that same day, PM Carney and B.C. Premier David Eby announced a Canada–B.C. Cooperative Prosperity Agreement, and, as part of the broader economic agreement, B.C. would not oppose a southern marine terminal for the oil pipeline. On July 6, there was more pipeline news, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Premier Smith announcing an early-stage feasibility study for a pipeline connecting Alberta to Ontario’s refining region in Sarnia.  Peter and Jackie then welcomed Michele Harradence, Enbridge’s Executive Vice President and President, Gas Distribution and Storage, and the new Chair of the Board of the Canadian Gas Association (CGA), to the podcast. Peter and Jackie asked Michele about municipal bans on natural gas, the role of natural gas in cold-climate reliability, and natural gas’s GHG emissions. They also discussed the outlook for North American natural gas demand growth, including demand from AI data centres, and whether supply can keep pace. Finally, they compared the regulatory process for major projects in Canada with that in the United States. Content referenced in this podcast: Canada and British Columbia's new cooperative prosperity partnership (July 2, 2026) Canada and Alberta advance west coast pipeline project proposal and Pathways Project Carbon Capture Initiative (July 2, 2026) Prime Minister Mark Carney forward guidance video on Canada’s energy future (June 30, 2026) ARC Energy Ideas heat pump podcast “Decarbonizing heat: Are air-source heat pumps the solution for Canada? (June 11, 2024) Ontario unveils proposed route for Northern Shield Energy Corridor (July 6, 2026) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/Check us out on social media:X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week, our guest is Mike Law, former president and CEO of the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO). Mike now leads MGL Advisory Services Ltd. and advises several companies, including Energy Alberta, where he is head of power system integration. Energy Alberta is proposing a nuclear generating station in northern Alberta's Peace River region. The podcast touches on a long list of Canadian electricity policy initiatives, including the federal government’s Nuclear Energy Strategy (June 22) and the Electricity Strategy (May 14). Other policies that are impacting investment and growth forecasts include the Alberta-Canada MOU, the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), and – specific to Alberta – the new Data Centre Regulation and the Restructured Energy Market (REM). Topics covered include Canada’s need for new electricity generation to meet growing demand, including from AI data centres; how the CER is creating uncertainty for investment in new natural gas generation; and how Alberta’s REM adds another layer of uncertainty. The discussion also covers Canada’s new nuclear strategy and the plan to build 10 new reactors, including how it compares with the U.S. push toward a similar target. Finally, Mike outlines Energy Alberta’s large-scale Peace River nuclear project, including timelines, regulatory requirements, costs, and stakeholder engagement. Content referenced in this podcast:  Nuclear Energy Strategy for Canada (June 29, 2026) Powering Canada Strong: A National Strategy for an Electrified Canadian Economy (May 14, 2026) Energy Futures: BC Hydro Turns Back to Natural Gas to Help Fill Electricity Gap (June 1, 2026) Alberta Data Centre Regulation (June 9, 2026) CBC: Power plant proposed for area northeast of Edmonton inches closer to becoming reality (June 24, 2026) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/Check us out on social media:X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

This week on the podcast, our guest is Angela Stent, a globally recognized authority on U.S.-Russia relations. Angela has held senior roles at Georgetown University, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the Brookings Institution, the U.S. State Department, the National Intelligence Council, and the Council on Foreign Relations, among others. She is also an award-winning author; some of her books include The Limits of Partnership: U.S.-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century (2014) and Putin's World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest (2019). Russia's war with Ukraine is increasingly becoming an energy war. As Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities improve, it has begun hitting Russian energy infrastructure with growing success, meaningfully reducing Russia's ability to produce refined products and crude oil. Jackie and Peter explore the complex geopolitics of the conflict with Angela, including Russia's relationships with Europe, the United States, and China. They also discuss the implications for Canada, including the growing attractiveness of energy from a stable supplier, a point recognized at the recent G7 meeting in France, where Canada was identified as a welcome source of energy to diversify away from supply routed through the Strait of Hormuz. Jackie and Peter ask Angela: Ukraine has delivered military strikes deep inside Russia this year — does that kind of pressure move Putin toward ending the war? How does Putin view the recent U.S.-Iran conflict, and what are the implications for the Russia-Ukraine war? Beyond Ukraine, is Russia a threat to other European countries? What is a realistic path to ending the war, and what would the best-case scenario look like? Content referenced on this podcast: G7 leaders' statement on geopolitical issues (June 17, 2026), welcoming the potential of Canada to deliver significant additional capacity to global markets in the coming years  Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/Check us out on social media:X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie begin with the big news of June 14th: the United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to end the war, which takes the form of a memorandum of understanding (MOU). While the agreement leaves numerous details to be settled, both sides expect that shipping will resume through the Strait of Hormuz as a result. They then recap last week's episode with the Honourable Brian Jean, Alberta's Minister of Energy and Minerals, and his optimism about changes in the province that are expected to shorten regulatory timelines and advance a West Coast oil pipeline application toward submission in July. Peter and Jackie also discuss Alberta's referendum question this fall on separation, and how foreign investors may view it. On June 9, 2026, Peter Tertzakian toured Trans Mountain’s Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, British Columbia, which exports Western Canadian crude oil to tidewater. Peter shares some of what he learned, including comments from people working at the terminal on safety, tanker filling times, and the project to deepen the channel, which would increase the amount of crude oil that can be loaded onto each ship. Content referenced in this podcast: Photos from Peter’s tour  Trans Mountain website Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/Check us out on social media:X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

This week, our guest is the Honourable Brian Jean, Alberta's Minister of Energy and Minerals. The conversation was recorded at an ARC Financial event in Calgary on June 9. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has underscored the importance of energy security and supply diversity. This, along with more supportive federal policies, is raising expectations for growth in Alberta’s oil and gas sector. On the podcast this week, Jackie asks Minister Jean about Alberta’s opportunity to expand oil and gas production, including: Is the Strait of Hormuz closure and the Iran war reshaping how people view Canadian energy? What is Alberta's goal for oil production growth, and what changes, regulatory and otherwise, are supporting that goal? How does Alberta benefit from the build-out of LNG export capacity on the West Coast? The Canada–Alberta MOU outlines a plan to submit a 1 MMB/d oil pipeline to reach Asian markets to the Major Projects Office, with the aim of starting the regulatory review by early July. What is its status, and does the decision on the large oil sands CCS project affect the path forward? Are discussions underway with BC on the pipeline and with local communities, including Indigenous groups? And what are Alberta's opportunities in mineral production and, potentially, processing? Content referenced in this podcast: Canada Government, Overview of Canada’s National Artificial Intelligence Strategy: AI for All (June 4, 2026) Global Energy Show (June 9 to 11, 2026) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/Check us out on social media:X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

The podcast opens with updates on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a German state-owned energy company contracting for Canadian West Coast LNG, and the Pope's theological document warning about AI. Next, Peter and Jackie introduce this week's guest, Marc Spieler, Senior Managing Director for the Global Energy Industry at NVIDIA, joining from Houston, Texas, to discuss the latest developments at the intersection of AI and energy. Energy and AI are deeply interlinked. Energy companies are using AI to improve efficiency across oil and gas, renewables, and emerging sources such as next-generation fission and fusion. At the same time, AI's explosive growth is driving significant new electricity demand, requiring a build-out of both generation and grid infrastructure. Predicting future power demand from AI remains uncertain; it depends on the pace of adoption and whether GPUs, along with other delivery components of the digital infrastructure stack, will become more efficient over time. Marc highlights that data centres are becoming more flexible, with the ability to reduce consumption during periods of grid stress. This would allow new data centre capacity to be added without straining the grid, while also lowering costs for all power consumers by improving system utilization during off-peak periods. Content referenced in this podcast: NVIDIA Blog with examples of energy company AI applications: Efficiency at Scale: NVIDIA, Energy Leaders Accelerating Power‑Flexible AI Factories to Fortify the Grid (March 2026) NVIDIA’s NeMo Framework was used for asset integrity and reliability at Petrobras (March 2025) NVIDIA’s Earth-2 library of open models, libraries, and frameworks that democratize global access to professional-grade weather and climate AI NVIDIA Vera Rubin DSX AI Factory reference design to maximize efficiency (March 2026) NVIDIA and Emerald AI, along with other energy companies, pioneer flexible AI factories (March 2026)  Pope Leo XIV, Magnifica Humanitas: On Safeguarding the Human Person in the Time of Artificial Intelligence (May 25, 2026) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify