Shipping Canadian Oil to Tidewater: What’s Next for Trans Mountain

This week, our guest is Mark Maki, Chief Executive Officer of Trans Mountain Corporation. The original Trans Mountain pipeline was built in 1953, and the Expansion Project was completed just over one year ago, nearly tripling the pipeline’s capacity to 890,000 B/d (from 300,000 B/d).  Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Mark: How much do you expect to pay your shareholder (the Canadian Government) in 2025 and 2026? What are the logistics of moving the oil by tanker? Where are the tankers going, and what type of crude is shipped in the pipeline? How has the pipeline improved Canadian oil prices? What is the expected timing for a resolution on the tolls, as a Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) hearing is currently underway that could adjust the cost for shipping oil? What is the potential to increase pipeline flows, and is there potential for a northern leg as proposed in the early days of the expansion? The Federal Government has stated it plans to sell the pipeline; do you have any updates on that and the potential timing? What are your thoughts on Bill C-5 and the potential for this type of legislation to avoid the high costs and many delays faced by the Trans Mountain Expansion?Content referenced in this podcast: Globe and Mail, “Trans Mountain expects to pay federal government $1.25 billion in 2025” (May 2025)Financial Post, “Canada must maximize existing pipelines before building more, Guilbeault says” (May 2025) Financial Post, “Northern Leg to Trans Mountain pipeline attracts interest amid brewing trade war” (February 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week, our special guest is Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global and Chairman of S&P's CERAWeek conference. Daniel is the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power”. His most recent book is “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations”. Please note that the interview with Daniel Yergin was recorded on June 11th, before the Israel and Iran conflict began on June 13th, 2025. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Daniel Yergin: Why did you describe the energy transition as troubled and in need of a pragmatic path forward? Do you believe there is a growing consensus that the “fast energy transition” scenario is unrealistic? Do you anticipate Europe softening its green policies and subsidies or extending timelines for net-zero goals? How do you foresee the trade war and competition between the G2 (the United States and China) evolving? How dominant is China in clean energy, and what implications does this hold for the United States' ability to compete? What is OPEC’s motivation for reintroducing supply to the market during a period of weaker demand? What strategy would you recommend for Canada to address US trade pressures and potential annexation threats? Content referenced in this podcast:Foreign Affairs, “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward” by Daniel Yergin, Peter Orszag, and Atul Arya (April 2025) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, we discussed Jackie’s recent visit to St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, to attend the Energy NL conference. Energy NL is the province’s energy supply and service sector association, which annually hosts the province’s flagship conference on conventional and clean energy. This week, Charlene Johnson, Chief Executive Officer of Energy NL, joins the podcast to explore Newfoundland and Labrador’s energy potential and the discussions at the conference. Among the topics covered were potential nation-building projects, such as the Churchill River hydroelectric development—a joint $33 billion potential initiative by Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and Hydro-Québec that aims to add nearly 4 GW of new electricity generation capacity on the river. Another significant project discussed was Equinor’s Bay du Nord offshore oil development, which could open a new offshore basin 500 km off the coast of Newfoundland. In addition to covering the conference highlights, Jackie and Peter recapped the past week’s events, including the constructive First Ministers’ meeting in Saskatoon on June 2nd. During this meeting, Prime Minister Carney outlined the criteria for nation-building projects. Furthermore, on June 6th, the Carney government tabled new legislation, “Bill C-5: One Canadian Economy: An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act.” The goal is to pass the bill into law by Canada Day. Content referenced in this podcast: Visit Peter Tertzakian's art show at the Elevation Gallery in Canmore, “Persistence, Obsolescence and Renewal: A Visual Inquiry Into the Lifecycle of Energy Infrastructure.” Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) approach to extensive load connections (Data Centres), June 4 Avik Dey, President and CEO of Capital Power, LinkedIn post regarding AESO’s approach to data centre development, June 4 Prime Minister of Canada Office, “First Ministers’ statement on building a strong Canadian economy and advancing major projects,” June 2 “Bill C-5: One Canadian Economy: An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act,” tabled June 5 “Insiders say Mark Carney could compromise on the emissions cap,” Toronto Star, June 6 Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

North American electricity demand is growing fast, driven by the increasing presence of data centers, as well as other load growth. In Alberta alone, the AESO has reported about 12 GW of requests for load grid connections from data centers. This week, our guest is Josh Schertzer, Chief Executive Officer at Beacon AI Centers, which recently announced plans to develop up to 4.5 GW of AI data centers in Alberta, representing an investment of up to C$10 billion. Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Josh: Should Albertans be concerned about this substantial load growth and the potential for associated higher electricity prices, given that 4.5 GW would account for nearly a 50% increase in current average provincial demand? Can data centers introduce flexibility by curtailing demand during periods of power shortages? Will Beacon AI Centers rely on grid electricity, or will they build their own generation sources? Do the clients of data centers, such as major IT companies, view natural gas as an acceptable energy source, considering its greenhouse gas emissions? How much cooling water is required, and could freshwater availability become a growth constraint? Lastly, what is the employment impact of the projects, including construction, operations, and spin-off jobs associated with establishing a data center hub? Content referenced in this podcast:Globe and Mail, “Carney to brief premiers on plan to fast-track major nation building projects” (May 29, 2025)  The Logic, “Calgary firm eyes $10B AI data centre building blitz” (May 15, 2025) Duke Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, “Rethinking Load Growth: Assessing the potential for integration of large flexible loads in US power systems” (February 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

The past week saw a surge in energy-related political developments in Canada. Prime Minister Carney issued a unified Mandate Letter to his cabinet on May 21, 2025, emphasizing that Canada “must build an enormous amount of new infrastructure at speeds not seen in generations. This includes the infrastructure to diversify our trading relationships; to become an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energies.” The newly appointed Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Tim Hodgson, delivered a constructive message during his visit to Calgary, highlighting the importance of building energy infrastructure, including oil and gas. Meanwhile, the Premiers from Western Canada convened a meeting in Yellowknife. They released a joint statement agreeing to plan and develop an economic corridor for “transporting oil and gas, liquefied natural gas, uranium, electricity, and hydroelectricity to Canadian and world markets.” To discuss these developments, we are joined by our guest, The Honourable Gordon Campbell, President of Hawksmuir International Partners Limited. He is the former Premier of British Columbia (2001–2011), Canadian High Commissioner to the UK and Northern Ireland (2011–2016), and Mayor of Vancouver (1986–1993). Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter posed to The Honourable Gordon Campbell: Based on the Carney government’s constructive comments on energy infrastructure and attracting private investment, including the Energy and Natural Resources Minister’s trip to Calgary last week, would you anticipate a new approach from the Liberals compared to the previous decade? The Western Premiers issued a joint statement to develop economic corridors, including those for transporting electricity, natural gas, and oil. What types of projects do you expect David Eby’s NDP government to support in British Columbia?  Would you expect the Federal government to revise or repeal energy policies, particularly those that might deter capital investment, such as the industrial carbon pricing policy set to increase to $170 per tonne by 2030 or the oil and gas emissions cap? Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week, our guest is Dr. Heather Exner-Pirot, a Senior Fellow and Director of Energy, Natural Resources and Environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa, a Special Advisor to the Business Council of Canada, and a Research Advisor to the Indigenous Resource Network. Heather has twenty years of experience in Indigenous, Arctic and resource development and governance. She has published on Indigenous economic and resource development, energy security, and politics. Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Heather: Does Canada have defense and security issues in the north? Politicians, including our Prime Minister, support Arctic export ports—do you expect to see new export corridors to the north? The Russians ship LNG from the Arctic, so why not Canada? What are your concerns about Prime Minister Mark Carney’s climate policy, as outlined in his Liberal leadership and election platforms? What are the issues with Canada’s greenwashing rules that were made law about one year ago? How would you recommend Canada move forward with speeding up the development of large projects—should the Impact Assessment Act (Bill C-69) be scrapped or just modified? What are the prospects for deploying small or micro nuclear reactors (SMRs) in the north? What does the future hold for Indigenous equity participation in major projects? Content referenced in this podcast:Northern Corridors: Hype or Hope? Macdonald-Laurier Institute, April 2025 Heather Exner-Pirot: Mark Carney’s climate plan is already outdated, The Hub, February 2025 Canada’s Greenwashing Amendment: A failure of process and policy, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, February 2025 From emergency to miracle – Germany’s LNG Acceleration Law shows that Western states can still build when they need to, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, January 2024 Learn more about Ontario Power Generation’s SMR project, including a video of the site preparation progress, Spring 2025Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

After averaging around $US 75/B over the past few years, the WTI oil price fell below $US 60/B in early May. The weakness is driven by growing concerns about a potential recession resulting from US tariffs and announcements from the OPEC+ group that they will accelerate adding supply to the market, just as demand may be softening. To help us understand the recent volatility in oil prices, our guest this week is Jeremy Irwin, Global Crude Lead at Energy Aspects. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Jeremy: Is this a repeat of 2015, when OPEC decided to flood the market to weaken US shale oil producers? Is President Trump influencing the OPEC+ strategy, as he may want lower oil prices to help offset the inflationary effects of US tariffs? At current price levels, how will US oil production respond? If profit is tight at lower prices, will US oil producers prioritize paying shareholders or capital spending? How might changes to US sanctions on Venezuela, Russia, and Iran impact the oil market? When do you expect global (and China’s) oil demand to peak? In the short term, how serious is the threat of recession to oil demand? Do you expect Canadian oil export infrastructure to expand? Content referenced in this podcast:See the Energy Aspects website to learn more about their research data, tools, and consulting servicesPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Canadians voted for Mark Carney and the Liberal government on April 28th, 2025. In his victory speech, Prime Minister Carney asserted, "It's time to build Canada into an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy." This week's podcast delves into the election results and its potential impact on Canadian energy with guest Greg Lyle, the founder and President of Innovative Research Group, a full-service market research firm with offices in Vancouver and Toronto. Peter and Jackie discussed several topics with Greg, including surprises in the election results, how the Liberal minority government could collaborate with other parties to pass legislation, and the potential future direction of energy policy based on the Liberal platform and Prime Minister Carney's post-election statements. They also explored possible support for LNG export facilities, clean energy initiatives, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects like the Oil Sands Pathways Alliance project. Additionally, they considered proposals from the Liberals and industry to amend the Impact Assessment Act (Bill C-69), aiming to expedite decision timelines for project approvals. Content referenced in this podcast:Letter from Canadian energy CEO’s to Mark Carney (April 30, 2025) “Build Canada Now: Energy CEOS to the Prime Minster of Canada: An Urgent Action Plan to Strengthen Economic Sovereignty”Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week, our guest is John Kousinioris, President and CEO of TransAlta, one of Canada's largest power generators. TransAlta owns, operates, and develops a diverse fleet of electrical power generation assets in Canada, the US, and Western Australia, producing electricity from renewable sources and thermal generation. Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked John: What are the reasons behind TransAlta’s merger with TransAlta Renewables? What are your expectations for electricity load growth in North America, and how will AI data centers impact demand? Does TransAlta have plans for new investments to meet data center demand? Are there risks to electric system reliability due to fast data center growth? Are there supply chain bottlenecks for new generation projects, and do tariffs compound the issue? What are your perspectives on Alberta’s plan to redesign its electricity market? Do you see merit in building an east-west electricity grid in Canada? Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week, Peter and Jackie discuss the latest news on the Canadian federal election, including takeaways from the leaders' debate on April 17th and the platform released by the Liberal Party on April 19th. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) had not yet released a full platform document at the time of recording.Next, they provide an update on investment in clean energy.  Equity values of publicly traded clean energy companies have fallen for the past four years (as measured by WilderHill Clean Energy ETF). At the same time, based on research by BloombergNEF, the sector registered an increase of 11% in new investment in 2024. The market is becoming bifurcated, with investment in mature and profitable technologies growing, and investment in emerging technologies, which are more dependent on government policy support, declining.  Peter and Jackie also discuss China's dominance in clean energy technology manufacturing and the impact that US tariffs could have on clean energy globally, considering China’s strong position and outlook for continuing expansion.  Content referenced in this podcast:Yale Budget Lab’s estimate of the US effective tariff rate (April 15)Liberal Platform (released April 19, 2025)BloombergNEF Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025 Edition White House Executive Order “Protecting American Energy from State Overreach” (April 8, 2025)Dan Yergin and Atul Arya “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward,” Foreign Affairs (March/April 2025) Nat Bullard Annual Presentation (see slide 135 for China’s exports to the US, EU, and Global South)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify