571: The Great Real Estate Reset Is Happening—But in Slow Motion w/ Peter Muoio

For the last three years, commercial real estate investors have been waiting for a dramatic reset. The expectation was straightforward: higher interest rates, a wall of maturing loans, and distressed sellers would eventually force prices sharply lower, with the correction happening all at once. Instead, the great real estate reset is happening—but it's happening in slow motion. Today, we're seeing selective opportunities where quality multifamily assets can trade at discounts of 30–40% from prices just a few years ago. Naturally, many investors wonder if they should keep waiting for even better deals. But how much better could they actually get? One of the most interesting insights from this week's guest is that today's transactions don't necessarily represent a market that is still falling—they represent a market that simply isn't functioning normally. Most of the deals getting done involve either distressed sellers who have no choice or trophy assets that always command a premium. The vast middle of the market remains frozen as buyers and sellers continue to disagree on value. In other words, these distressed trades may not be evidence that everything gets cheaper from here. Instead, they may represent some of the best opportunities created during this slow-moving reset. This week's guest is Peter Muoio, one of the country's leading commercial real estate economists, and he helps us take a deeper dive into what's really happening. We discuss why today's environment is fundamentally different from 2008, why the so-called "wall of maturities" has become a slowly rolling wave instead, what finally ends the price discovery process, and why uncertainty—not a lack of capital—has become the biggest obstacle to a full market recovery. We also discuss why multifamily fundamentals may improve as new supply fades, why institutional capital is waiting patiently on the sidelines, and why some of the most overlooked opportunities may emerge from sectors investors have largely abandoned. If you've been wondering whether commercial real estate has already reset—or whether the best opportunities still lie ahead—I think you'll find this conversation both practical and thought-provoking. Learn more about Situs AMC: https://www.situsamc.com/ Sign up for Wealth Formula Investor Club: https://wealthformula.com/

Link to Harry Moser's Resources blog: https://reshorenow.org/blog/reshoring-initiative-resources/ For decades, one of the easiest ways to increase profits was to manufacture products where labor was cheapest. Companies built factories in China, Southeast Asia, and Mexico, while consumers enjoyed lower prices and shareholders benefited from higher margins. It became conventional wisdom that globalization was irreversible. But what if one of the biggest investment trends of the next decade is the exact opposite? Today, the United States is making an unprecedented push to bring manufacturing home. Through the CHIPS and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and a growing list of incentives for industries ranging from semiconductors to pharmaceuticals to advanced batteries, hundreds of billions of dollars are being invested in rebuilding America's industrial base. This isn't nostalgia for the factories of the 1950s. It's about economics. COVID exposed just how fragile global supply chains had become. Geopolitical tensions with China highlighted the risks of depending on overseas production for everything from computer chips to critical medicines. Companies have also learned that the cheapest supplier isn't always the least expensive once shipping delays, inventory costs, quality problems, and geopolitical uncertainty are factored into the equation. In other words, businesses are beginning to optimize for resilience—not just the lowest sticker price. That shift has enormous implications for investors. If manufacturing continues moving back to the United States, the beneficiaries won't just be manufacturers. Industrial real estate, automation companies, robotics firms, machine tool manufacturers, utilities, natural gas infrastructure, logistics companies, and even regional housing markets could all experience significant tailwinds. But perhaps the most surprising consequence has nothing to do with factories. It has to do with people. For decades, we encouraged nearly every high school graduate to pursue a four-year college degree. Meanwhile, vocational education and skilled trades steadily lost prestige. Yet many of the jobs America increasingly needs today aren't additional marketing majors or middle managers—they're electricians, industrial maintenance technicians, CNC machinists, welders, automation specialists, and mechatronics experts. Many of these careers pay well into six figures while offering strong job security and growing demand. Then there's the wildcard that seems to be influencing every major economic discussion today: artificial intelligence. At first glance, AI seems like it should reduce the need to bring manufacturing back to America. After all, if robots and software can do more of the work, why not simply automate factories overseas? The reality may be exactly the opposite. As automation and AI reduce the importance of labor costs, other factors become far more important: proximity to customers, reliable supply chains, intellectual property protection, faster delivery, and national security. If labor becomes a smaller percentage of total production costs, manufacturing closer to home often makes more economic sense. Ironically, AI may not eliminate the need for American manufacturing—it may strengthen the economic case for it. Of course, that raises another important question. If factories become increasingly automated, what kinds of workers will actually be in demand? Will AI create millions of new high-paying technical jobs, or will it limit how many workers these new factories ultimately require? Those questions don't just matter for workers. They matter for investors trying to understand where capital, jobs, and economic growth are likely to flow over the next decade. This week on Wealth Formula Podcast, I sit down with Harry Moser, founder of the Reshoring Initiative, to discuss whether America is truly entering a manufacturing renaissance, why companies are rethinking decades of offshoring, how AI is changing the economics of domestic production, whether skilled trades may become more valuable than many traditional college degrees, and where investors should be paying attention as one of the largest structural shifts in the global economy continues to unfold. More about Harry Moser: Harry founded the Reshoring Initiative, leading the effort to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States after a distinguished career at GF AgieCharmilles, where he served as President from 1985 and retired as Chairman Emeritus in 2010. His work has earned widespread recognition, including induction into the IndustryWeek Manufacturing Hall of Fame (2010) and the Association for Manufacturing Excellence (AME) Hall of Fame (2021). He was also named Quality Magazine's Quality Professional of the Year (2012), FAB Shop Magazine's Manufacturing Person of the Year, and received AMT's Al Moore Award (2026). Harry has been a leading advocate for U.S. manufacturing policy, participating in President Obama's 2012 White House Insourcing Forum, winning The Economist debate on outsourcing and offshoring, receiving the Manufacturing Leadership Council's Industry Advocacy Award (2014) and the Made in America Reshoring Award (2019). He was recognized by former Commerce Department Chief Economist Sue Helper as the driving force behind the modern reshoring movement, appointed to the U.S. Commerce Department's Investment Advisory Council in 2019, and has testified before both the House Commerce and Small Business Committees as well as a U.S. Senate commission on strengthening American manufacturing.

Most investors spend nearly all their time thinking about how to make money. They analyze returns, evaluate risk, search for opportunities, and try to identify the next great investment. But there is another side of wealth building that receives far less attention: How much of what you make do you actually get to keep—and continue compounding? Taxes on investment gains can be one of the most destructive forces in wealth creation, not simply because of the check you write today, but because of everything that money could have earned in the future. Consider an investor with a $10 million gain in California. A combined capital gains tax bill approaching $3.7 million would leave only about $6.3 million available to reinvest. That is not merely a one-time loss of $3.7 million. It is also the loss of every dollar that $3.7 million might have produced over the next 10, 20, or 30 years. At a hypothetical 10% annual return, $3.7 million could grow to nearly $25 million over 20 years. That is the true cost of the tax: not just the original payment, but the decades of compounding that disappear with it. This is why sophisticated wealth planning cannot focus exclusively on generating returns. We must also consider how assets are owned, when gains are recognized, and whether taxes can be legally deferred so that more capital remains invested. My guest on this week's Wealth Formula Podcast is Brett Swarts, founder of Capital Gains Tax Solutions and author of Building a Capital Gains Tax Exit Plan. Brett specializes in a strategy known as the Deferred Sales Trust, which he says may allow certain investors and business owners to defer capital gains taxes when selling highly appreciated real estate, businesses, stocks, or cryptocurrency. In this episode, we discuss how the strategy works, the legal structure behind it, its costs, its audit history, and the important limitations investors should understand. We also walk through practical examples involving real estate, business sales, and Bitcoin. This is not about avoiding taxes illegally. It is about understanding that when and how taxes are paid can dramatically affect long-term wealth. Because making money is only half the equation. Keeping more of it working for you is where compounding becomes truly powerful.

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is assuming that today's conditions will last forever. When the stock market is soaring, they assume it will continue indefinitely. When it's crashing, they assume the pain has only just begun. Real estate investors aren't any different. Today, there are plenty of headlines about falling apartment values, weak rent growth, and rising vacancies. Many investors have concluded that multifamily has lost its appeal. But that conclusion misses a critical point. The very markets experiencing the greatest short-term growing pains are often the same markets with the strongest long-term fundamentals. How can that be? Over the past several years, developers rushed to build apartments in places where people were moving in droves—Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and parts of the Midwest. Developers followed demand, and for a while, it worked beautifully. Then interest rates surged. Projects that had already broken ground continued to come online, creating a temporary oversupply. Vacancies rose, rent growth slowed, and property values in many markets fell 30–40% from their peaks. That's the part everyone talks about. What receives much less attention is that the people never stopped coming. Families continue relocating. Employers continue expanding. Population growth remains strong. The long-term demand for housing in many of these markets hasn't disappeared at all. At the same time, higher construction costs and expensive financing have dramatically reduced new apartment development. In other words, the pipeline of future supply is slowing just as long-term demand continues to grow. History has a way of reminding us that the best investments are often made when short-term conditions temporarily obscure long-term fundamentals. This week's Wealth Formula Podcast explores exactly that idea. I sat down with commercial real estate expert Garrick Brown to discuss where we are in the current commercial real estate cycle, why broad statements about "the real estate market" no longer make much sense, and where he believes investors should be looking over the next 12 to 24 months. Among the topics we discuss: • Why multifamily may be becoming attractive again despite recent price declines. • Why retail has quietly become one of commercial real estate's strongest-performing sectors. • Which types of net lease properties he likes—and which ones he avoids. • How migration patterns continue to shape investment opportunities across the country. • The long-term impact of interest rates, AI, and demographic trends on commercial real estate. If you invest in real estate—or simply want to better understand where opportunities may be emerging beneath today's headlines—I think you'll enjoy this conversation.

One of the first lessons you learn as an investor is that the headline is rarely the whole story. The same is often true in history. Take the so-called "October Surprise" of 1980. The theory—which remains debated today—is that members of Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign may have secretly encouraged Iran to delay the release of 52 American hostages until after the election, denying President Jimmy Carter a potential political victory just days before Americans went to the polls. The hostages were, in fact, released on the very day Ronald Reagan was inaugurated. Whether the theory is true or not isn't really the point. The point is that major geopolitical events often have layers of motivation that aren't obvious in real time. If there has been one recurring force behind international politics over the past century, however, it has been energy. From the rise of the Middle East as a strategic region to the oil embargo of the 1970s, the Gulf Wars, and the ongoing struggle for control of critical shipping lanes, oil has repeatedly shaped alliances, conflicts, and foreign policy. Yet those motivations are often overshadowed by the political narratives that dominate the news cycle. That brings us to today. Oil is once again dominating the headlines. The recent conflict involving Iran sent energy prices higher, renewing concerns about inflation and reminding investors that energy remains one of the most important inputs into the global economy. Nearly everything we consume carries an energy cost somewhere along the supply chain. Like many of you, I found myself asking a simple question: Why did the United States become directly involved in Iran? If preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons was the primary objective, couldn't Israel have continued that campaign on its own? Was there another strategic objective that received far less attention? Whether you ultimately agree with the answer or not, it's a fascinating question—and one that requires understanding how energy markets actually work. My guest on Wealth Formula Podcast this week, Dr. Anas Alhajji, is one of the world's leading energy economists. Throughout our conversation, he separates fact from fiction on everything from OPEC and U.S. shale production to electric vehicles, LNG, and the Strait of Hormuz. More importantly, he offers a compelling framework for understanding why energy—not politics alone—may explain many of the world's biggest geopolitical decisions. He also presents a thought-provoking theory about America's involvement in Iran that, at least to me, makes more strategic sense than the explanation most of us heard in the news. Whether you agree with his conclusions or not, I think you'll come away seeing global events through an entirely different lens—and with a much better understanding of how oil, energy security, and geopolitics influence inflation, markets, and your portfolio.

Most investors spend an enormous amount of time thinking about interest rates, inflation, earnings, and the latest AI breakthroughs. But very few stop to think about the one input that makes all of those things possible in the first place: energy. We tend to assume that energy will always be there when we need it—that supply will simply keep growing as demand increases. History makes it feel inevitable. But it isn't. One of the most fascinating aspects of today's AI revolution is that it isn't just creating demand for more software or faster chips. It is creating an unprecedented demand for electricity, natural gas, transmission infrastructure, and the physical systems required to power massive computing capacity. In other words, AI doesn't exist in the cloud. It exists on an energy grid. That has enormous implications—not only for AI itself, but for inflation, industrial competitiveness, geopolitics, and long-term investment opportunities. In this week's Wealth Formula Podcast, I sit down with the team behind Doomberg, one of the most widely read independent research publications covering energy, finance, and geopolitics. Our conversation explores why energy may be the most underappreciated driver of the global economy, why many popular assumptions about the energy transition deserve another look, how AI is reshaping energy demand, what Europe, China, and the United States are getting right—and wrong—and where investors should be paying attention over the next decade. Whether you agree with every conclusion or not, I think you'll find the discussion thought-provoking and a useful framework for understanding some of the biggest forces shaping the investment landscape.

One of the biggest frustrations I hear from successful professionals, business owners, and investors is simple: "I feel like I'm paying more and more in taxes, but nobody is showing me legitimate ways to reduce them." The reality is that there are numerous tax strategies available to high earners. The challenge is separating strategies grounded in well-established tax principles from those that rely heavily on subjective interpretations, aggressive valuations, or structures that may attract unwanted IRS scrutiny. Personally, I prefer strategies that are as black-and-white as possible when it comes to the tax code. Over the years on Wealth Formula, we've discussed many of these approaches, including cost segregation studies, bonus depreciation, real estate professional status, retirement plan strategies, charitable planning, and other opportunities available to high-income earners. What I generally try to avoid are strategies that rely heavily on subjective valuations or interpretations. A good example is the conservation easement space, where the IRS has significantly increased enforcement activity in recent years. Whether certain transactions were originally well-intentioned or not, many investors have found themselves dealing with audits and uncertainty that simply aren't worth the headache. I speak from personal experience. In this week's episode, I speak with Chris Miller about a variety of tax planning concepts currently being used by high-income individuals and business owners. Some of these strategies may be familiar to longtime listeners, while others may be new. The goal of the discussion is not to promote any particular strategy, but rather to educate you on what's available and encourage informed conversations with your own advisors. As always, there is an important caveat: This podcast is intended solely for educational purposes. Neither Chris nor I are providing tax advice to you personally. If you decide to explore any strategy discussed in this episode—whether through Chris's firm or any other advisor—you should conduct thorough due diligence, involve your own CPA and legal counsel, and make sure you fully understand both the potential benefits and risks before moving forward. I should also point out that I personally like a strategy that combines our Wealth Accelerator strategy with charitable planning. In its simplest form, it combines charitable giving with properly structured life insurance to potentially create: • Significant current-year tax deductions • Future tax-free income for life • A meaningful legacy for both your family and charitable causes Like any strategy, it isn't appropriate for everyone, but it represents the type of planning I generally find most attractive—where the rules are relatively clear and the tax treatment is well established. If you would like to schedule a call with me specifically about the Wealth Accelerator strategy, you can do so here: https://wealthformulabanking.com/ In the meantime, I hope you'll enjoy this interview and come away with a few new ideas. If you decide to contact Chris's firm, be sure to let them know you came through the Wealth Formula Podcast. They are offering fee waivers for members of our audience. Let me know what you think!

For most high-income professionals, the path to financial success seems straightforward: work hard, earn a great income, save diligently, and invest wisely. The problem is that even the highest-paying jobs have two significant limitations. First, much of what you earn is exposed to taxation. While there are certainly strategies to reduce your tax burden, there is a reason many of the wealthiest people in the world own businesses rather than simply collect paychecks. Business ownership creates opportunities for tax efficiency that are often unavailable to employees. Second, a job—even a very lucrative one—is generally not an asset you can sell. You may earn hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars per year, but when you stop working, the income stops too. A successful business, on the other hand, can generate ongoing cash flow while simultaneously building enterprise value. Over time, that value may become one of your most important assets and, ultimately, something you can sell for a substantial payout. Now, this is not a call to quit your day job and become an entrepreneur overnight. In fact, for many of us, the better question is whether there are opportunities to acquire an existing business rather than build one from scratch. Every day, thousands of profitable small and mid-sized businesses are owned by operators approaching retirement who may not have a succession plan. In many cases, these businesses can be acquired with financing, professional management, and a thoughtful growth strategy. This week's guest, Joe Prencipe, helps us understand exactly how that world works. Joe is an attorney who specializes in business acquisitions, sales, and deal structuring. In this episode, we discuss what makes a business valuable, how buyers and sellers often leave money on the table through poor planning, and why deal structure, taxes, financing, and operational realities frequently matter far more than the headline purchase price. We also discuss practical issues such as SBA financing, seller financing, valuation multiples, how to evaluate acquisition opportunities, and what characteristics make a business easier to grow and ultimately sell. Whether you already own a successful practice or business, are considering acquiring one, or simply want to understand why business ownership remains one of the most powerful wealth-building tools available, I think you'll find this conversation particularly valuable.

For those of us with kids, summer marks another milestone. School is out, graduation season is here, and for many families, college is right around the corner. My oldest daughter will be a senior this fall, which means our family is now officially entering the college application process. Like many parents, I've been looking at tuition numbers and mentally preparing myself for what feels like an inevitable financial hit. And it's a big one. When I started college in the early 1990s, the average annual cost of attending a private university was roughly $10,000-$15,000 per year. Today, many private schools are approaching or exceeding $90,000 annually when you include tuition, housing, fees, and living expenses. In some cases, sending a child to college can cost more than buying a house did a generation ago. At the same time, getting into many of these schools has become dramatically more competitive. Applications have exploded, acceptance rates have fallen, and students are expected to build résumés that would have looked extraordinary just a few decades ago. Given those realities, I assumed the process was fairly straightforward: write the checks and hope the investment pays off. What I learned from this week's guest, however, was surprising. Shellee Howard has spent decades helping families navigate college admissions, scholarships, and financial aid. One of the biggest myths she challenged is the belief that higher-income families don't qualify for meaningful financial assistance. According to Shellee, many affluent families leave substantial amounts of money on the table simply because they assume they won't qualify. We discuss merit scholarships, strategic college selection, FAFSA and CSS planning, scholarship negotiation tactics, and how certain schools are dramatically more generous than others. We also talk about recent rule changes affecting divorced families, why some assets are treated differently than others in aid calculations, and how proper planning can significantly reduce the total cost of attendance. Perhaps the most important takeaway is that college pricing is often far more flexible than most families realize. Whether your children are a few years away from college or applications are already underway, this episode may save you far more money than you expect.

Some of the best real estate investments in history were made when the headlines were overwhelmingly negative. When financing dries up, lenders become restrictive, sellers become motivated, and uncertainty keeps many investors on the sidelines, opportunities begin to emerge for those willing to look beyond today's fear. That is precisely where we find ourselves today. Commercial real estate has endured one of the most challenging environments in decades. Rising interest rates, tighter credit conditions, and a wave of new supply have placed significant pressure on many markets. Yet while these challenges have created distress, they have also created something investors haven't seen in years: the ability to buy quality assets at substantial discounts to replacement cost and prior valuations. The question is not whether opportunities exist. The question is where they exist and how to identify them. This week, I sat down with real estate investor and entrepreneur Victor Menasce to discuss what he's seeing across the commercial real estate landscape. We talk about why some multifamily properties are trading 30-40% below peak values, how oversupply is impacting certain markets, and why investors who understand local supply-and-demand dynamics may be positioned to benefit from the current dislocation. Victor also makes an important point that often gets lost in national discussions. Real estate is not one market. Every city, neighborhood, and asset class has its own story. While some areas remain challenged, others continue to benefit from powerful long-term drivers including population growth, immigration, healthcare demand, and housing affordability trends. Today's environment resembles the periods that have historically produced exceptional long-term returns. Institutional investors, family offices, and large private capital pools are increasingly stepping into distressed situations, not because they believe conditions are perfect, but because they recognize that buying quality assets during periods of pessimism has often been a winning strategy. Of course, success still requires discipline. Financing matters. Market selection matters. Understanding future supply matters. But for investors willing to do the work, today's market may ultimately be remembered less for the distress it created and more for the opportunities it presented.