Is The Sphere… A Good Business?

Investors have poured more money into music than ever before. Music as an asset class if hotter than ever,. But the public markets have discounted the value of music companies: UMG stock is currently trading near its all-time low WMG trades at a discount on its earnings relative to UMG RSVR is going through a takeover attempt Several publicly traded music companies have been taken off the public markets This is a huge disparity, and it was time to explain why. In this solo episode, I break down this paradox. We will also connect the dots to real estate, the post-2021 repricing, and why more take-private attempts may be ahead. CHAPTERS 00:10 Private vs Public Money in Music 07:26 Similarities in Music 08:19 2021 Reset 15:10 WMG and UMG 24:02 What’s Ahead SPONSORS Chartmetric: Listen in for our Stat of the Week Linktree: Share music, sell merch, and connect with fans on one simple link. Linktree is the #1 link in bio tool that musicians and artists use to connect fans to everything they do. TRAPITAL Where technology shapes culture. New episodes and memos every week. Sign up here for free.

Sphere Entertainment is now profitable, Wizard of Oz was a hit, and more locations are coming. Has the business turned the corner, or are there still question marks? In this episode, I’m joined by Tati Cirisano, MIDiA Research, to assess where Sphere Entertainment stands in 2026. We unpack the company’s narrative, scalability, residencies, challenges, and more. CHAPTERS 01:34 Is It Really Profitable? 10:01 The Concert Residency Model 14:58 Sphere Expansion Plans 22:33 Novelty Risk 26:07 Does Sphere Have a Comp? SPONSORS Chartmetric: Listen in for our Stat of the Week TRAPITAL Where technology shapes culture. New episodes and memos every week. Sign up here for free.

In music right now, the winners aren’t just the artists with the biggest audiences, they’re the teams that control the infrastructure. First, I sit down with Mag Rodriguez, CEO and co-founder of EVEN, to break down how Even became a key part of J. Cole’s The Fall Off rollout, from exclusive drops and direct-to-fan sales to tour presales and fan community features designed to keep people coming back. Then, I’m joined by Lior Tibon, CEO and co-founder of Duetti, to unpack the financial plumbing behind catalog deals: how Duetti raised $200M, why equity and debt get used differently, and how data, underwriting, and marketing operations power the rights-acquisition machine. CHAPTERS: 04:27 Why J. Cole Uses EVEN 10:16 EVEN-UMG Deal, Explained 16:49 Clearing the Rumors 32:30 Duetti’s Equity vs. Debt Stack 33:34 What a typical Duetti deal looks like 38:38 Catalog Marketing Playbook SPONSORSChartmetric: Listen in for our Stat of the Week Linktree: Share music, sell merch, and connect with fans on one simple link. Linktree is the #1 link in bio tool that musicians and artists use to connect fans to everything they do. TRAPITAL Where technology shapes culture. New episodes and memos every week. Sign up here for free.

For the past 20 years, subscription streaming has produced an outcome that still gets overlooked. The category winners weren’t the big tech giants or the major studios. In music, Spotify became the default. In premium video, Netflix did the same. In this episode, we break down how pure-play focus, faster decision-making, and a single retention-driven scoreboard create compounding advantages that big tech’s money and bundling can’t easily copy. CHAPTERS 01:03 Why Spotify and Netflix Succeeded 06:13 Pure-Play Edge 10:36 Speed & Ownership 14:29 Survivorship Reality SPONSORS Chartmetric: Listen in for our Stat of the Week Symphonic: Distribute your music to one of the largest networks in the industry. Symphonic delivers your music to over 200 digital service providers ensuring that you’re monetizing every stream and use of your music on Spotify, TikTok, YouTube, and more TRAPITAL Where technology shapes culture. New episodes and memos every week. Sign up here for free.

We just came back from the 68th Grammy Awards. I am joined by Tati Cirisano of MIDiA Research break down what it’s actually like to the experience the Grammys up close from industry events and late-night conversations to crossing paths with artists, executives, and power players shaping the music business. We unpack standout performances, unexpected moments, and how attending the show in person is different from watching at home. CHAPTERS 01:43 Bad Bunny’s Big Night 05:11 The Grammys In Person vs. On TV 08:36 Lauryn Hill 10:07 Cher on Stage 14:02 Polymarket and the Grammys 20:39 Grammy Week 25:19 Big Changes Next Year SPONSORS Chartmetric: Listen in for our Stat of the Week TRAPITAL Where technology shapes culture. New episodes and memos every week. Sign up here for free.

YouTube is the biggest TV, music, and video platform in the world, but it’s not satisfied. The company still wants to compete for the dollars that go to traditional TV. But can YouTube have it all? In this episode, we examine YouTube’s push into the living room, from securing the NFL Sunday Ticket to becoming the exclusive home of the Oscars starting in 2029. But as YouTube chases TV legitimacy and higher profit margins, it faces a core tension: how can it get there without losing the creator-driven ethos that made it dominant. We break down YouTube’s battle for short-form dominance, where YouTube TV fits in, and what its evolving strategy reveals about the future of media, creators, and global attention. CHAPTERS 02:12 YouTube’s Ambition 04:59 YouTube vs TikTok 10:04 YouTube TV 13:16 Future of YouTube SPONSORS Chartmetric: Listen in for our Stat of the Week TRAPITAL Where technology shapes culture. New episodes and memos every week. Sign up here for free.

Meta’s short-form video surface, Reels, now generates $50 billion in annual run rate. That’s more than some of the largest media companies like Netflix, TikTok, and YouTube’s ad business. Reels may be less culturally relevant than those companies, and its users spend less time on the platform than others, but it prints money and shows no signs of slowing down. This episode explores how Meta’s infrastructure made Reels one of the most successful monetization plays in modern tech and what could threaten its momentum next. CHAPTERS 02:51 Culture vs. Cash 04:30 How Reels Makes Money 06:49 Meta’s Advantage 15:34 Risks Ahead 18:54 What’s Next for Reels SPONSORSChartmetric: Listen in for our Stat of the Week Linktree: Help your followers discover everything you do, with one simple link. Use code TRAPITAL50 for a discount TRAPITAL Where technology shapes culture. New episodes and memos every week. Sign up here for free.

In this episode, we sit down with Will Page, economist and author of Pivot, for a deep dive on the global economics of music. Using Will’s latest Global Value of Music Copyright Report, we explore streaming economics, global market gaps, AI, and where the music industry’s next phase of growth may come from. CHAPTERS 02:45 Global Value of Music: 10 Years in Review 11:24 Emerging Music Markets 13:37 Africa’s Music Economy 18:11 Brazil’s Music Market 21:12 The Crocodile Smile 33:18 AI and Music’s Future SPONSORS Chartmetric: Listen in for our Stat of the Week beatBread: Smarter choices. Better deals. GUEST Will Page, former Chief Economist of Spotify and PRS for Music, Author of Pivot LINKS Global Value of Music Copyright - Will Page TRAPITAL Where technology shapes culture. New episodes and memos every week. Sign up here for free.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have had a big year in 2025, but what are they really? Securities? Derivatives? Sportsbooks? They may be all of the above. Listen to my breakdown on how these markets have evolved over time, and what led to their current rise today. We then dive into the opportunities, risks, and the regulatory challenges that may shape their future. CHAPTERS 02:54 The Origin of Prediction Markets 06:43 Polymarket, Kalshi, and Modern Prediction Markets 09:16 Regulation and What’s Next 09:31 Bucket A: Policy, Finance, and Economics 13:36 Bucket B: Sports, Entertainment, and Pop Culture SPONSORS Chartmetric: Listen in for our Stat of the Week Too Lost: empowering artists with tools to manage, distribute, and grow their music independently. TRAPITAL Where technology shapes culture. New episodes and memos every week. Sign up here for free.