2025 Global Threat Landscape & Forecast Analysis

In this powerful episode, Arnold speaks with Agathe Labadi, an intelligence analyst at the Counterterrorism Group (CTG), to uncover what global intelligence trends reveal about the state of women’s rights in conflict zones. From Sudan and Ukraine to Gaza and Afghanistan, we discuss how sexual and gender-based violence is being weaponized as a tool of war, the staggering scale of abuse, and the systemic failures in protecting women. We also explore the systemic failures in protecting women and how intelligence work can help expose and address these hidden atrocities.

How does GEOINT give OSINT its advantage? In this episode, we explore how satellite imagery offers unique advantages over SIGINT and HUMINT, helping analysts track troop movements, assess battlefield damage, and uncover hidden activities. We also dig into how geospatial data is verified, the use of open and commercial imagery, and the analytical challenges that come with it. In this episode, Martina Nitti joins Arnold Koch to provide us with a deeper understanding of the impact that GEOINT has.

Smart glasses, such as the  Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses (Meta glasses hereafter), will likely facilitate terrorist activities, as malicious actors are likely to divert the initial use of the glasses to serve criminal or terrorist objectives. Potential terrorists will likely use the glasses as props to enhance their operational capabilities and efficiency in carrying out attacks, likely improving attack preparation and planning, surveillance tactics, and espionage. Given the glasses’ capabilities to capture and broadcast photos, videos, and sounds, potential terrorists will likely use them to access sensitive information and sites, record the topography of potential targets, security measures, and personnel, or live-stream terrorist attacks. Given the device's potential discretion and users' ability to disguise them as normal glasses, security services will likely have difficulty identifying potential threats on the ground. On the other hand, the glasses' connectivity functions will enable law enforcement to track online individuals using the glasses for terrorist purposes by identifying networks, GPS, or IP addresses. In this episode, Agathe Labadi joins Arnold Koch to provide us with a deeper understanding of the threat impact of smart glasses.

Today, we're joined by two intelligence analysts from the Counterterrorism Group, who recently contributed to the 2025 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), an upcoming annual geopolitical forecast report. While crises expand across local, regional, and international levels, a comprehensive global assessment has never been more critical. In this episode, we’ll explore the report's multi-regional approach and the key areas it highlights, particularly North and South America But first, our guests will share insights into their backgrounds and expertise.  

The Five Eyes alliance—Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US—forms one of the largest intelligence-sharing networks in the world. As global conflicts evolve, so do the challenges and threats. How are the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts impacting Five Eyes operations? And with the rise of decentralized threats, like cybercriminals and private intelligence agencies, what changes might be coming to their strategies and intelligence-sharing practices?

In late July 2024, Venezuela’s national elections sparked protests and controversy. Though President Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner, the opposition claims their candidate, Edmundo González, won with a decisive majority. Months later, Venezuela remains in turmoil as González flees the country under an arrest warrant, and diplomatic tensions rise with nations across Latin America demanding transparency. In today’s episode, Arnold K. sits down with security analyst Agathe Labadi to unpack the latest developments in Venezuela and what they mean for regional stability.

In 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian oligarch and leader of the notorious Wagner mercenary group, launched a "march for justice," seizing the southern city of Rostov in a move against Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, as quickly as it began, the operation was called off after mysterious negotiations with Vladimir Putin. Two months later, Prigozhin's plane crashed—reportedly downed by a Russian missile—killing him and several key officials. In this episode, William Adams joins Arnold Koch to explore the aftermath of Prigozhin's death, the shifting power dynamics within Russia, and the future of the Wagner Group.  

As conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza unfold, the term "open-source intelligence" (OSINT) has taken center stage. But what exactly is OSINT, and why is it so crucial for intelligence analysis in today’s information-saturated world? In this episode, Martina Nitti joins Arnold Kochka to provide an overview of emerging OSINT techniques and what has changed since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. We dive into the nature of OSINT, its growing role in deciphering real-time events, and the tools that can help newcomers and experts alike sift through social media and data streams to find the truth.

In early August 2024, Ukraine launched an unexpected offensive into the Russian region of Kursk, catching Moscow off guard. Ukrainian forces swiftly took control of over 90 settlements, leaving the Russian government scrambling to respond. Now, the Kremlin is declaring a state of emergency and deploying inexperienced conscripts. Where is the conflict heading and what implications could these developments have for Western security? In this episode, William Adams joins Arnold Koch to provide us with a deeper understanding of these developments.

In this episode of the Threat Intelligence Podcast, host Derrick T. Dortch dives into the complex and emerging world of extremism in gaming spaces with our distinguished guest, Linda Schlegel. As a research fellow at both the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) - Center for Applied Research on Deradicalization, Linda brings a wealth of expertise to this crucial discussion. Linda is a former intern at The Counterterrorism Group and will share about the intersection of gaming and extremism and how extremist groups are exploiting digital gaming spaces and the challenges this poses, and much more.