US Stocks To Underperform For For Years Ahead | Kevin Muir

Stocks have had a rough week, declining through mid-day Friday until finally bouncing in the last few hours.Is the bottom in?It could be, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. The downward price action has been so swift, and the sentiment swing so negative, that stocks look very oversold in the near term.So he thinks a continued bounce from here next week is quite likely.We discuss that, plus the growing risk of recession, the latest Trump economic policies (including the new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve), rising unemployment, the housing market and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap.BUY YOUR TICKET FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

There's a lot of urgency right now in America to reduce the fiscal deficit via the new D.O.G.E and also to reduce its trade deficit via the threat of tariffs.Both initiatives are creating a lot of disruption right now, and have their fair share of vocal supporters and detractors.Are they likely to work? And at what cost?For discuss, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as one of the top financial Substacks in the world. In a nutshell, Kevin thinks nearly all US assets, including the dollar, are woefully overvalued.Just as capital flowed into the US over the past decade, pushing all these assets ever higher, he expects the coming years to see capital flowing out of the US, leading to chronic underperformance vs international assets.BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE 'LAST CHANCE TO SAVE' PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

When today's guest was last on this program back in December, he warned that after blockbuster double-digit returns in 2023 and 2024, stocks were likely to have a tougher time this year.Well, so far, with the S&P slightly down YTD for 2025, that prediction is proving prescient.So, where does he see the market headed from here?To find out, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael Pento. president of Pento Portfolio Strategies.He maintains a 20-point model that guides his portfolio allocation, and today we'll hear what it's advising him to do right now.Spoiler alert: it is telling him we are at a dangerously high risk of a major downwards correction in both stock & home prices.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Our bi-weekly ‘Macro Monday Mornings’ with Stephanie Pomboy resumed today.We discussed the mounting signs of economic slowdown, as well as the continued ‘stickiness’ of inflation.Will the rest of 2025 see us stuck in Stagflation?Stephanie thinks the odds are uncomfortably high. And similarly so for a material correction in the financial markets.We also discussed her projected implications of the latest policy developments of the new Trump administration (as best we understand them given the highly-fluid environment). And Stephanie also fielded live viewer Q&A.BUY YOUR TICKET ATTHE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

There can be little doubt we're at a material juncture: Deficit spending and the resulting pile of debts and other sovereign liabilities are starting to place real limits on our economic prosperity. In addition to these legacies of the past, the future is fast becoming more uncertain as many nations -- the US in particular -- are embarking on new policy directions very different from the status quo of recent decades.Where is all this heading?And are our odds for entering a better tomorrow increasing or decreasing?To help us wrestle with these very large and important questions, we have the great privilege of speaking today with Jeffrey Sachs, professor of economics at Columbia, bestselling author, and global leader in sustainable development.A survey by The Economist ranked Professor Sachs as among the three most influential living economists -- and it is an honor to welcome him to this program for the first, of hopefully many future appearances.TIME'S RUNNING OUT! BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

This week was a roller-coaster ride for the markets. Stocks weakened as the week progressed, and then really started falling after Nvidia's guidance failed to restore confidence in investors.But then the markets rallied hard into the close on Friday. Which is causing investors everyone to ask:Is the sell-off over?Or, is this merely a head-fake before prices resume their decline?Adding to the uncertainty is the sudden rash of recession worries making it back into media headlines. The latest consumer confidence numbers are plummeting and the Atlanta GDPNow's Q1 GDP estimate suddenly plunged to a negative forecast.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss all of this, plus what the latest technical analysis is telling us, rising bond prices, DOGE, the weakening housing market, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.TIME'S RUNNING OUT! BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

The US dollar has been very strong for several years now. Among other implications, capital from the rest of the world has flooded into US stocks as a result.Today’s guest predicts that for many reasons, especially America’s need to get bond yields lower in order to make its debt more serviceable, the dollar will fall materially over the coming year.If that happens, it will likely be unfavorable for US stocks, but add a tailwind to other assets, some trading at attractive discounts todaySo where do the best opportunities lie for investors?To find out, we turn to macro and commodities expert Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital.TIME'S RUNNING OUT! BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Stock market valuations remain high by nearly every valuation metric.And what concerns today's guest is that the earnings estimates being used to price stocks today seem far above what the free cash flows of the underlying companies will be able to deliver.In short, stocks prices appear to be promising returns that their actual profit growth simply can't meet.We'll discuss this concerning disconnect today with Chance Finucane, Chief Investment Office at Oxbow Advisors. We'll also address the other big trends factoring into his portfolio allocation decisions right now.Oxbow Advisors is a financial advisory firm founded by Ted Oakley that specializes in the needs of high net worth clients. As Ted's CIO, Chance will share with us what find of market outlook the firm sees ahead for the rest of the year and how it is positioning its client's assets for it.Follow Chance at http://oxbowadvisors.com/Or at http://youtube.com/@oxbowadvisorsTIME'S RUNNING OUT! BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

GET MICHAELS FREE ARTICLE ON STATECRAFT at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/global_strategy_us_economic_statecraft_days_of_future_past.pdfWhen today's guest was last on this program back in Nov, he predicted we'd see continued momentum geopolitically away from globalization and towards mercantilism and protectionism.That has proven to be the case worldwide, and particularly so for the US, where Donald Trump's "America First' agenda has kicked off at warp speed -- shocking citizens, allies and enemies alike with its violent & swift disruption of what was Business As Usual just a month ago. How is this wave of nationalism around the world likely to impact the global economy?What are the biggest opportunities it may open up for investors? And what are its biggest risks?To discuss, we're fortunate to be able to spend the next hour with Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, who joins us from Thailand.Michael, thanks so much for taking time out of your busy morning to join us.Follow Michael at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledgeOn LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-every-38983214/?originalSubdomain=sgOr on X at @themichaelevery

"It's almost a guaranteed setup for a mean-reverting event"That's how portfolio manager Lance Roberts views the extremely-rosy earnings estimates currently forecasted for 2025 are.In his estimation, these estimates are so far removed from what actual corporate profits will be able to deliver that downwards repricing event is highly likely.The critical question, of course, remains: When?Lance and I discuss this unrealistic estimates threat in depth, as well as Walmarts recent disappointment, the continued weakening the US consumer, shifting investor & CEO confidence, gold, bonds, DOGE, tariffs, inflation, and Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference