Making sense of the UK’s latest retail trends

After January's slump, February brought a breath of fresh air with all five measures of the Index on the rise, lifting the overall score to a still chilly -20. The star of the show? Consumers' outlook on their personal finances for the coming year, which jumped a cheerful four points! Views on personal finances over the past 12 months also got a three-point boost, matching the uplift in opinions on the general economy over the same period. But hold onto your hats – despite these sunny spells, the economic forecast remains stormy, with views on the economy still deep in the negative zone and lower than a year ago. Join NIQ’s Neil Bellamy and the ever-curious Lucy Green as they dive into the digits, dissecting differences by age group and income level in their regular segment, Data Guru Corner.

2025 kicked off with the Overall Index Score down five points. All five measures that form the Index dropped, with particularly steep falls in consumer views on the wider UK economy, both looking back a year (down 7 points) and at what’s in store for the next 12 months (8 points lower). NIQ’s Neil Bellamy and moderator Lucy Green review the scores and their underlying causes. In the first Data Guru Corner of the year, they discuss why an index is used to measure confidence and explain it is calculated. With the strict sampling methodology consistent since 1974 at the launch of the Consumer Confidence Barometer, this dataset provides valuable historical comparisons to understand levels of confidence over the last five decades.

December was one of the quieter months this year with consumer confidence up just one point to -17, five points higher than this time last year. In this final podcast of the year, moderator Lucy Green and GfK’s Neil Bellamy discuss December’s results and what they tell us about consumer sentiment. As December is a key month for retail, there’s a review of the Major Purchase Index in the context of GfK’s Black Friday point-of-sales data in key categories. In Data Guru Corner, Neil looks at average scores over the year, discussing the variance in each measure and the volatility of key metrics. We never predict what is going to happen, but we do review confidence levels going into 2025.  

All indicators up in November. Something changed in November as consumer confidence rose three points to -18. Moderator Lucy Green asked GfK’s Neil Bellamy discuss the measures that feed into the topline figure and how last month’s Budget might have impacted the results. In particular, the Major Purchase Index rose five points and we ask if this is normal pre-Black Friday and the holiday season, or is something else happening? In Data Guru Corner Neil analyzed the results by party allegiance which provide some insights into November’s improvement.

Key future indicators on personal finances and purchase intentions edge up as general economic situation falls. A drop of one point in consumer confidence to -21 dragged the overall index score back to a low not seen since March 24. Moderator Lucy Green asked GfK’s Neil Bellamy to dig deeper into the five measures that make up the overall Index score and explain what is happening. In Data Guru Corner Neil shared fascinating – and rarely published - data examining confidence by party allegiance. Consumers appear despondent this month – how will the imminent Budget change that? Tune in for an analysis of November’s results.

Key future indicators on personal finances, economy and purchase intentions all sharply lower   September’s results put a halt to the steady improvements in consumer confidence that GfK had been recording since March this year. We saw a sharp fall of seven points in the headline figure, bringing it back close to the -19 recorded in January. GfK’s Neil Bellamy talks through the reasons for the falls in indicators on personal finances, the economy and purchase intentions. In our regular feature, Data Guru Corner, we analyse the results by age group and income level, highlighting a massive gap between the highest and lowest earners.    2024 marks 50 years of the UK Consumer Confidence Barometer. There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigour and reliability. Get the report now >>

The Overall Index improved by one point to -13 Anyone expecting a significant leap in confidence levels following July’s general election result and England’s football team reaching the Euro 2024 final will be disappointed by this month’s results. GfK’s Neil Bellamy and moderator Lucy Green discuss the topline and measure-level results, especially the positive uptick on the Major Purchase Index. In our regular Data Guru Corner, we look at the top concerns the new government will want to address – the NHS takes the number one slot, surpassing ’having enough money to live right and pay the bills’.   2024 marks 50 years of the UK Consumer Confidence Barometer. There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigour and reliability. Get the report now >>

These are the last results before the general election on July 4th GfK’s Neil Bellamy and moderator Lucy Green discuss the June 2024 results. For the third month running the Index has increased, this time by three points to -14, the highest level it has been since November 2021. With an election imminent, in Data Guru Corner we discuss if there has been any change in confidence scores by party allegiance since the election announcement.     2024 marks 50 years of the UK Consumer Confidence Barometer. There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigour and reliability. Get the report now >>    

Consumer confidence, the use of credit since covid and the influence of sustainability on purchase behaviour In this episode of Thinking Ahead, Hannah Olley, a Senior Insights Manager in our UK Retail Market Intelligence team tackles three questions asked at our most recent breakfast event. Each is an important topic, from current levels of consumer confidence and the impact on spending patterns, to the changing face of credit and its users, to the growing importance of sustainability in Tech and Durables markets. Tune in for the latest intelligence.

In this episode of Thinking Ahead, GfK’s Neil Bellamy and moderator Lucy Green discuss the May 2024 results. These were in before the announcement of a July 4th General Election. The overall Index score rose two points to -17, driven by significant jumps in the outlook for our personal finances and general economic situation. With an election weeks away, Data Guru Corner focuses on how party allegiance impacts consumer sentiment. 2024 marks 50 years of the UK Consumer Confidence Barometer. There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigour and reliability. Get the report now >>