The doom loop: why the world economic order is spiralling into disorder

Money Disrupted is a monthly roundtable series examining how economic fragmentation, geopolitics and technological change are reshaping the global monetary order.  Drawing on lessons from economic history, this episode examines two defining questions for the US and global outlook. First, can the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh bring inflation sustainably under control at the 2% target level? Second, will the artificial intelligence boom continue with positive effects for the US and world economy without a destabilising correction? Markus Brunnermeier, Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Economics; Princeton University and Director, Bendheim Center for Finance and Harold James, Claude and Lore Kelly Professor in European Studies at Princeton University, join David Marsh, chairman of OMFIF, to explore what previous inflationary episodes and technology-driven investment booms can tell us about today’s monetary policy challenges, market valuations and the prospects for AI to deliver lasting gains in productivity and economic growth. Join OMFIF for the September Federal Open Market Committee Watch on 18 September to examine the outcomes of the September FOMC meeting and the outlook for US monetary policy.

Norway's extraordinary wealth as one of the world's richest countries is a source of both pride and debate, with views divided over whether it is a blessing or a burden.  In the wake of King Harald's passing, attention turns to the state of the Norwegian economy and the management of its vast riches. Øystein Olsen, former governor of Norges Bank and member of OMFIF's advisory council, joins David Marsh, chairman of OMFIF, to discuss his new book, Our Rich Country (Vårt Rike Land), co-authored with Eivind Thomassen. The discussion covers Norway's sovereign fund, its oil wealth and the argument that this abundance has contributed to stalled productivity. Olsen also sets out the case made in Our Rich Country, which offers a counterargument to Martin Bech Holte's 2025 book The Country That Became Too Rich (Landet som ble for rikt).

Artificial intelligence has transformed the conversation around investing, but much of the focus has remained on equity markets. As AI adoption accelerates across the global economy, its implications for fixed income investors are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. In this episode, Manusha Samaraweera, fixed income investment director at Capital Group, joins Mariam Khan, economist at OMFIF, to discuss his paper, ‘Why bond investors can’t ignore the AI revolution’. They explore how AI-driven productivity gains could influence sovereign debt dynamics and inflation over the long term, why the US may be better positioned than other regions to capture the benefits of AI and how the technology is creating both opportunities and risks across credit markets. Read the Capital Group paper, ‘Why bond investors can’t ignore the AI revolution’.

Tokenised deposits are putting commercial banks back in the centre of the evolution of digital money. Lee McNabb, head of digital assets at NatWest Group, joins John Orchard, chairman of the Digital Monetary Institute at OMFIF, about the benefits and remaining challenges of bringing tokenised commercial bank money to wholesale and retail users. They discuss the ways central banks and policy-makers are working on this development, which will allow the existing financial architecture to combine the benefits of blockchain with the guardrails and infrastructure of the two-tier financial system. Read the latest edition of the Digital Monetary Institute Journal for more insights on tokenised deposits.

There is a growing water crisis on multiple fronts. In early 2026, United Nations scientists declared an era of global water bankruptcy as systems hit breaking point. The social and health implications of this are widely understood, but the economic and financial risks are too often missing from the conversation. A new report by WWF finds that, when climate and nature risks are considered separately, without fully integrating freshwater considerations, important systemic risks can be overlooked and gaps in risk management can build up. In this episode, Carolin Carella, research lead at the WWF Greening Financial Regulation Initiative, and Jessica Smith, head of nature at the UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative, join Sarah Moloney, editorial director at OMFIF. They examine the key findings of the report and consider what financial institutions, supervisors and regulators can do to help ensure a financially resilient and water-secure future. Read the WWF report, ‘Navigating towards water resilience’, which highlights the materiality of water insecurity to price and financial stability and the possible steps for central banks and financial supervisors to address water-related risks in their work, and the UNEP FI Risk Centre's flagship report, ‘The landscape of sustainability risk integration’, which assessed the extent to which sustainability risks are being integrated by the global banking sector.

While diversification remains a priority, economic fundamentals are once again taking precedence in investment decisions as central banks navigate a more fragmented global landscape. Max Castelli, head of strategy for sovereign institutions, and Philipp Salman, director of strategy for sovereign institutions at UBS Asset Management, join Yara Aziz, senior economist at OMFIF, to unpack the main takeaways from UBS’ 32nd Reserve Management Seminar. They discuss why economic fundamentals are returning to the centre of reserve management, what geopolitics means for investors, and how central banks are thinking about diversification, the dollar and gold.

Rapid digitalisation, the declining use of cash and the growing influence of non-European payment providers have prompted European policy-makers to reconsider the future of money and payments. In the face of growing geopolitical tensions, the European Central Bank's exploration of a digital euro encompasses a wider effort to ensure that Europe retains control over critical payment infrastructure. Joachim Nagel, president of the Deutsche Bundesbank, joins John Orchard, chairman of OMFIF’s Digital Monetary Institute to discuss financial sovereignty, the future of the European Central Bank and strategic autonomy in payments.

Long-standing assumptions about globalisation, multilateral co-operation and financial stability are increasingly being challenged, raising questions about whether the institutions designed to support prosperity are still fit for purpose. Mark Sobel, vice chair and chief economist at OMFIF, is joined by Eswar Prasad, economist and author of The Doom Loop: Why the World Economic Order Is Spiraling Into Disorder. They discuss the central thesis of the book – how globalisation, inequality and institutions like the International Monetary Fund have created a destructive feedback loop, destabilising the world order.

As governments across Europe and beyond commit to significantly higher defence spending, a critical question is coming into focus: how can these ambitions be financed sustainably? In the final instalment of the ‘Hard power’ series on defence, Mark Sobel, vice chair at OMFIF, is joined by Andrea Presbitero, economist at the International Monetary Fund. They discuss what rising military expenditure means for public finances and economic growth as well as the trade-offs facing governments – from advanced and emerging markets – already grappling with constrained budgets. 

With tokenisation taking hold of capital markets, the platforms offering the services are actively shaping the infrastructure and the future of the marketplace. Mark Rakhmilevich, vice president, product management and development at Oracle, joins Lewis McLellan, head of content at OMFIF’s Digital Monetary Institute, to discuss the way tokenisation is developing in capital markets and the ways in which artificial intelligence can support it, giving regulators and market participants comfort in their ability to scrutinise transactions.