The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 106 - Michael Oliver

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by David Fergusson, CEO of Atlas Consolidated in Singapore, for a fascinating look at the disruptive rise of digital banking. From his early days building Hugosave in Singapore to launching Atlas’s HugoHub platform for banks, fintechs, and insurers worldwide, David explains how technology, open banking, and shifting regulations are reshaping the industry. Our discussion highlights how digital platforms slash costs, expand access in underserved markets, and integrate AI to accelerate adoption—all pointing to a future where financial services are more efficient, affordable, and transformative than ever before as David digs into the mechanics of this transformation, sharing how digital platforms cut operating costs, improve compliance, and unlock adoption in markets where legacy infrastructure has historically failed to reach. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In thie latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, for a deep dive into the powerful undercurrents driving today’s markets. Michael explains why the US equity rally rests on shaky ground, with broken momentum structures in the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and leading tech names hinting at sharp declines ahead. He also outlines how weakening bonds, a faltering dollar, and the setup for explosive moves in commodities and precious metals point to a much broader period of market upheaval. From the risk of Bitcoin tumbling back toward $50,000 to the likelihood of central banks turning once more to the printing presses, Michael makes the case that investors are standing on the cusp of a structural rupture that could redraw the financial landscape. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In the seventh episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri Kofinas and I are joined by renowned financial historian Edward Chancellor for a sweeping conversation on the century-long evolution of money and interest rates. Our discussion traces the abandonment of gold-backed currency, the rise of fiat money, and the resulting waves of speculation, monetary intervention, and economic distortion. Eddie examines how decades of artificially low rates fueled bubbles and imbalances that are now unwinding, reshaping industries from real estate to renewable energy. Together, we explore the political and societal consequences of ‘mispriced’ money, mounting deficits, and wealth inequality—and consider whether the world is nearing a return to sounder forms of money, albeit through a turbulent and uncertain path. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In the latest episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri and I sit down with Lawrence Fossi—better known to many as Montana Skeptic—for a fearless exploration of America’s fraying social fabric. From the shifting character of New York City to the cults of personality surrounding Elon Musk and Donald Trump, we dissect the cultural, political, and institutional forces eroding public trust and cohesion. With Lawrence’s trademark candour, the conversation delves into the dangers of celebrity-driven populism, the fragility of democratic norms, and the deep structural imbalances threatening the US political and economic system. This is a sobering yet essential listen for anyone trying to make sense of the chaos—and looking for slivers of hope within it. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

After a ridiculously long hiatus, The Super Terrific Happy Hour returns as Steph and I dive back into the rapidly changing world of global finance, exploring how Japan’s decades-long experiment with low interest rates and high debt is no longer unique, as the United States and other developed economies find themselves on a similar path. We unpack Japan’s recent inflation surge, the Bank of Japan’s extraordinary bond holdings, and the risks of major capital flows if Japanese investors start bringing their money home before pivoting to the broader implications of a world where globalization may be reversing—raising questions about reshoring, capital controls, and whether governments might coerce institutions to buy more domestic debt. There’s bundles of skepticism on display as we evaluate policymakers’ ability to manage these seismic shifts and a warning of systemic risks, fragile financial systems, and the potential for a painful redistribution of wealth. Amid the uncertainty, we discuss the enduring appeal of gold, the limits of monetary policy, and the high geopolitical stakes for the dollar and the petrodollar system, offering the kind of big-picture insights and candid cynicism you’ve come to expect from the two of us. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In the latest episode of The End Game, Fleck and I welcome back Harley Bassman—aka the ‘Convexity Maven’—for a deep dive into the shifting landscape of global bond markets, inflation, and the future of the US dollar. Harley contends that while US bond yields have risen sharply in recent years, they are now approaching fair value when measured against historical spreads and nominal GDP. The real challenge, he argues, lies in the rapid adjustment after decades of suppressed rates, and in how markets adapt to this new reality. Our discussion explores the profound impact of demographic trends, such as the early retirement of baby boomers and delayed household formation among millennials, as well as the often-underappreciated role of immigration in sustaining US economic growth. We also examine the risks associated with persistent fiscal deficits and mounting debt, as the potential erosion of the dollar’s reserve currency status presents a problem with potentially far-reaching consequences. Despite the scale of these challenges, Harley remains sanguine, suggesting that the system’s imbalances are more like slow-moving trains than imminent crashes. But, with heightened volatility and policy uncertainty likely to persist, diversified portfolios—including gold and inflation hedges—are prudent responses. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I talk with with cybersecurity expert and author Dmitri Alperovitch to discuss his book, ‘World on the Brink,’ and the escalating risk of conflict between China and Taiwan. Dmitri, who forecast Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, draws striking parallels between Vladimir Putin’s motivations and those now driving Xi Jinping’s ambitions toward Taiwan, identifying five recurring factors—distorted historical narratives, belief in national destiny, security imperatives, personal ego, and the urgency of aging leaders—that are converging once again, this time in East Asia. The conversation examines concrete evidence of China’s preparations for a potential invasion, from military training sites in Inner Mongolia replicating Taipei’s streets, to sophisticated cyber campaigns targeting US infrastructure, and the construction of landing craft engineered for amphibious assaults and Dmitri argues that Taiwan’s significance extends well beyond its semiconductor industry; control of the island would enable China to project power across the Pacific, fundamentally altering the regional balance and eroding U.S. influence. Dmitri calls for urgent strategic measures, including decoupling from China in critical technologies and forming a new economic alliance—TAME (Treaty of Allied Market Economies)—to help smaller nations withstand Chinese pressure, and he contends that Western responses to China are not provocations, but long-overdue reactions to years of aggression and intellectual property theft. With a potential invasion window between 2028 and 2032, the discussion underscores the need for robust deterrence, stronger alliances, and strategic competition to preserve stability in the region. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In the fifth episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri Kofinas and I sit down with economist Charles Calomiris for a probing exploration of America’s fiscal future and the deeper societal forces shaping it. The conversation delves into the concept of fiscal dominance—the point at which mounting government debt and deficits compel inflationary policies, sidelining the intentions of central banks, with Charles warning that the US is edging closer to this scenario, driven by unsustainable deficits and a political system gridlocked by the self-interest of key voting blocs and an unwillingness to confront hard choices around entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. However, the discussion moves beyond the technicalities of economic policy as Charles contends that the roots of the crisis are as much moral and societal as they are financial, pointing to a broader decline in civic responsibility and shared values across generations. Drawing on historical parallels, he suggests that periods of crisis can also spark transformative leadership and a renewed search for social cohesion. This leads to a reflection on the possibility of hope—if individuals and communities can rediscover a sense of purpose and responsibility—as well as the importance of integrity and leadership at every level. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In the latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of Elm Wealth, for a conversation that spans revolution, crisis, and hard-earned wisdom. From seeing his family lose nearly everything during the Iranian revolution, to his high-stakes years at Salomon Brothers and as a founding partner of the infamous Long-Term Capital Management, Victor’s journey is nothing short of extraordinary. After stepping back from markets for over a decade following LTCM’s collapse, he returned with a mission: to help investors avoid the pitfalls he’d seen firsthand. We discuss the crucial—and often overlooked—importance of position sizing, the seductive danger of private equity pitches, and why too many wealthy investors are flying blind. Victor shares the principles behind his “eyes open” investing philosophy and explains why sticking to low-cost, diversified, logic-based strategies may be the most underrated path to long-term success. This is a conversation packed with insight, humility, and lessons that only experience can teach. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In another compelling episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri and I are joined by Dr. Pippa Malmgren to unpack the profound challenges facing American society today. Drawing from her extensive experience in US and UK political spheres, Pippa explores the collapse of shared narratives amid political polarization, economic pressures, and an overwhelming flood of information that drives people into ideological silos. She highlights how this ‘narrative collapse,’ fueled by repeated national traumas and algorithm-driven media, threatens public trust, rational discourse, and the very legitimacy of government. Pippa calls this moment a Copernican shift in American reality, emphasizing the urgent need for what she so beautifully describes as ‘heartware’- empathy, compassion, and courageous dialogue – to navigate these turbulent times. We also touch on the implications of recent UAP disclosures as symbols of institutional opacity and the limits of current scientific paradigms as Pippa offers a vital perspective on how we might rebuild understanding and resilience in an era defined by uncertainty and division. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.