The Iran War Is Reshaping the Persian Gulf. What Does China Do Now?

China's growing commercial footprint across the Global South is creating new opportunities, but major knowledge gaps remain over how Chinese businesses build trust, negotiate, and form partnerships. Guanxi, institutional norms, and long-term relationships can matter as much as contracts and competitive pricing. At the same time, Chinese companies are still adapting unevenly to local cultures. Firms operating in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East increasingly recognize the value of local relationships and cultural knowledge, but many continue to prioritize speed and product specifications over local expectations. Sun Muyang, author of How Chinese Business Actually Works: 15 Themes on the Institutional, Historical, and Human Logic Beneath the Surface, joins Eric to discuss the logic of Chinese business, including guanxi and trust-building, competitive pricing, and Chinese companies' adaptation to Global South markets. Show Notes How Chinese Business Actually Works: 15 Themes on the Institutional, Historical, and Human Logic Beneath the Surface (English Edition) by Muyang SUN and Joyce XIE  📌 Topics Covered in This Episode Guanxi and Trust in Chinese Business The Hidden Logic Behind Chinese Business Practices Reading Chinese Business Signals Understanding Chinese Pricing and Competitiveness Chinese Companies Adapting to Global South Markets Practical Advice for Doing Business With China Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: chinaglobalsouth  Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Latin America is facing intensifying pressure from Washington to distance itself from China even as Beijing remains the region's leading trading partner. Governments are increasingly caught between U.S. strategic demands and the economic opportunities offered by China, making geopolitical balancing more difficult. The shift from a rules-based order toward one defined by power is reinforcing the case for "active non-alignment," allowing countries to work with both powers according to their interests. At the same time, Latin America faces a deeper economic challenge: moving beyond exports of raw materials such as copper and lithium toward greater value addition and industrial development. Ambassador Jorge Heine, honorary professor at the University of Chile's Institute of International Studies and non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute, joins Eric to examine Latin America's balancing act, including U.S. pressure on China ties, active non-alignment, and opportunities for deeper China-Latin America economic integration. Show Notes ECLAC - Ruptures and opportunities: proposals for Latin America and the Caribbean to thrive in the new geopolitical era 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode How U.S. pressure is reshaping China-Latin America relations The rise of active non-alignment as a strategy between Washington and Beijing Why China's role as Latin America's leading trading partner limits U.S. influence The challenge of moving beyond raw-material exports toward greater value-added production How China and Latin America could cooperate on copper, lithium, EVs, and green technology Why stronger China literacy is becoming essential for Latin American policymakers   Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander I @jorgeheine  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: chinaglobalsouth  Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

China's influence in Africa's media landscape increasingly operates through content-sharing agreements, journalist training, paid placements, and support for local broadcasters. These "below-the-line" strategies give Chinese narratives a pathway into African newsrooms that extends well beyond the reach of traditional state outlets such as CGTN and Xinhua. But the push for greater Chinese influence raises a deeper question about decolonization. While Beijing presents its media engagement as an alternative to Western dominance, African journalists can be exposed to models of reporting that do not necessarily fit local political and social realities. At the same time, the shift toward social media makes the actual impact of these efforts increasingly difficult to measure. Emeka Umejei, a Senior Research Associate at the University of Johannesburg, joins Eric and Cobus to discuss the arguments from his book China in African Media: Between Influence Operations and Decolonization, content-sharing agreements, journalist training, and the future of African media independence. Show Notes China in African Media: Between Influence Operations and Decolonization by Emeka Umejei 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode China's evolving media influence across Africa The rise of content-sharing agreements with African news outlets Journalist training, media exchanges, and the spread of Chinese reporting models The tension between China's "decolonization" narrative and African media independence How Chinese economic engagement strengthens its media influence The shift toward social media and the uncertain impact of foreign media campaigns on African audiences Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander I @stadenesque I @emekaumejei Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: chinaglobalsouth  Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

China's influence in Latin America is increasingly being built through smaller, less visible deals rather than the headline-grabbing infrastructure projects that defined its engagement in the 2010s. Surveillance technology, electric buses, power networks, critical minerals and subnational partnerships are creating a decentralized web of economic and political ties that can be harder to scrutinize or unwind. For Washington, the challenge is that pressure on governments to reduce Chinese ties often comes without credible alternatives. Latin American countries, meanwhile, are balancing U.S. security pressure against China's economic complementarity, while seeking to preserve strategic autonomy. Natalia Cote-Muñoz, the Managing Partner and CEO of Vantage Point Strategies, joins Eric to discuss China's evolving influence in Latin America, the risks of technological dependence, and how the U.S. and regional governments can respond. Show Notes Foreign Affairs - China's Quiet Quest to Dominate Latin America: Small Projects, Big Influence by Natalia Cote-Muñoz 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode China's shift from mega-projects to smaller, less visible investments in Latin America How subnational partnerships are becoming a key tool of Chinese influence The growing risks of technological and infrastructure dependence on China Why U.S. efforts to push back against China are often falling short Latin American countries' balancing act between China and the United States What China, the U.S., and Latin American governments should do differently to manage long-term geopolitical risks Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander I @CNASdc I @ncotemunoz Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: chinaglobalsouth  Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

China's growing appeal in the Global South is increasingly being shaped by everyday commercial experiences, not just diplomacy or cultural exports. Chinese phones, EVs, apps, infrastructure, entertainment, and consumer brands are becoming part of daily life, creating a form of familiarity that may prove more durable than social-media-driven fascination with China. But this commercial reach carries a major contradiction: the same low-cost Chinese products that benefit consumers can intensify pressure on local manufacturers. Across Southeast Asia, Africa, and elsewhere, governments are responding with tariffs and anti-dumping measures as Chinese firms challenge domestic industries and potentially constrain industrial upgrading.  Lizzi C. Lee, fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, and Zhuoning Li, a research intern at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, join Eric and Cobus to examine China's expanding commercial soft power, including the China-maxing trend, the role of diaspora communities, and the tension between consumer benefits and local industrial competition. Show Notes South China Morning Post: China's brands must outgrow diaspora bubble to hit soft power potential by Lizzi C. Lee and Zhuoning Li  Foreign Affairs: How China Is Winning Friends and Influencing People by Eric Olander and Lizzi Lee *]:pointer-events-auto R6Vx5W_threadScrollVars scroll-mb-[calc(var(--scroll-root-safe-area-inset-bottom,0px)+var(--thread-response-height))] scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]" dir="auto" data-turn-id= "request-6a979ea1-3b80-83e9-944f-48c8f1c9376f-11" data-turn-id-container= "request-6a979ea1-3b80-83e9-944f-48c8f1c9376f-11" data-testid= "conversation-turn-26" data-turn="assistant"> 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode Why China is becoming more popular with young people The rise of the "China-maxing" trend How Chinese brands are building soft power Why Chinese products resonate across the Global South The role of Chinese diaspora networks How affordability is changing consumer markets Why Chinese brands can benefit consumers while hurting local industries Can China's commercial influence outlast the current trend? Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander I @stadenesque I @wstv_lizzi I @AsiaPolicy Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: chinaglobalsouth  Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Public opinion toward China is improving across much of the world, especially in emerging economies across Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia. At the same time, perceptions of the United States have weakened, particularly around its reliability and contribution to global peace and stability. Younger people are especially likely to view China positively, shaped increasingly by technology, consumer brands, social media, and infrastructure rather than Cold War-era narratives. But attitudes toward China and the U.S. are not necessarily zero-sum. Laura Silver, an associate director at the Pew Research Center, joins Eric to unpack the Pew Research Center's polling findings on how China is viewed around the world, why China's image is improving, what is driving support among younger people and in the Global South, and what the numbers reveal about shifting perceptions of the world's two largest powers. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode: 🌍 Why global views of China are improving 📊 What Pew's 37-country survey reveals about China 👥 Why younger people view China more favorably 🇺🇸 Declining confidence in the United States globally 📱 How Chinese technology and consumer brands shape perceptions ⚖️ Why U.S.-China public opinion is not zero-sum Show Notes: Pew Research Center: Views of China and Xi Are Improving Globally by Laura Silver, Jonathan Schulman, Laura Clancy and William Miner  Afrobarometer: African insights 2026: Beyond borders: Citizen perspectives on a shifting global order Foreign Affairs: How China Is Winning Friends and Influencing People by Eric Olander and Lizzi Lee Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander I  @pewresearch  I @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

After the pandemic, as Chinese state-backed lending to developing countries largely dried up, critics declared the Belt and Road Initiative effectively dead. They were wrong. This year, China's financial engagement with BRI countries reached another record, driven by larger deals, private companies, green energy, and a growing focus on industrial development. Chinese firms are increasingly investing in processing, manufacturing, batteries, and other higher-value activities rather than focusing primarily on infrastructure and resource extraction. According to the latest data from the Green Finance & Development Center, BRI engagement reached its highest level for any first six months since the initiative launched in 2013. Christoph Nedopil, lead author of the report and a professor at the University of Queensland, joins Eric to discuss how the BRI is evolving, including changes in how projects are financed, where capital is deployed, and which industries are attracting Chinese investment. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode 🌏 Record-breaking BRI engagement 💰 New financing models 🏗️ Return of mega-deals ⚡ Green energy expansion ⛏️ Shift from extraction to processing 🌍 Africa's BRI surge Show Notes: Green Development Finance Center: China's investment and construction engagement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) 2026 H1 Financial Times: China pours funding into green energy deals as Iran war hits oil demand by Edward White Semafor: Chinese investments in Africa soar to $34 billion so far this year by Yinka Adegoke Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

The war in Iran is reshaping the strategic landscape of the Persian Gulf, putting new pressure on China's relations with Iran and the Gulf Arab states. Beijing's response is exposing the tension between its deep economic interests in the region and its reluctance to assume a larger role in regional security. Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer at the University of Exeter, and Aaron Glasserman, a distinguished fellow at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, join Eric to discuss their latest article in Foreign Affairs on why China will remain an influential economic actor in the region with only marginal geopolitical influence. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode ⚔️ How the Iran War Is Reshaping the Persian Gulf 🇨🇳 China's Strategic Interests in Iran and the Gulf 🛡️ Why Beijing Is Reluctant to Take on a Larger Security Role 🇮🇷 The Limits of China's Influence Over Tehran 🌍 How Gulf States Are Reassessing Their Relationship With China ⚖️ The Gap Between China's Economic Power and Security Responsibilities Show Notes: Foreign Affairs: The Gulf's China Problem by Mohammed Alsudairi, Andrea Ghiselli, and Aaron Glasserman Reuters: Can China restrain Iran? Gulf states test Beijing's influence by Samia Nakhoul and Timour Azhari The Diplomat: The Iran-US War a Win for China? Not So Fast. by Wang Jin Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

China is expanding its space partnerships across the Middle East through satellites, navigation systems, technology transfer, and other forms of cooperation. Beijing tailors these partnerships to individual countries, while governments such as Egypt, Iran, and the UAE use Chinese cooperation to pursue their own technological and strategic interests. A new report in the Texas National Security Review, Choosing Orbits: China's Space Diplomacy in the Middle East, explores how regional agency, technological competition, and the broader U.S.-China rivalry are increasingly intersecting in space. Two of the article's authors, Lawrence Rubin, a professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology, and Lincoln Hines, an associate professor at Georgia Tech, join Eric to discuss how space is the new frontier in China's soft power diplomacy. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode 🛰️ China's expanding space partnerships across the Middle East 🌍 Space diplomacy as a tool of Chinese influence 🇪🇬 Egypt's growing space and technology cooperation with China 🇦🇪 How the UAE balances China and the United States ⚔️ Dual-use satellites and the security implications of space technology 🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.-China competition over the future of space Show Notes: Texas National Security Review: Choosing Orbits: China's Space Diplomacy in the Middle East by Lawrence Rubin, Lincoln Hines & Dayana Alagirova South China Morning Post: For China and the Middle East, a Space Silk Road is written in the stars by Yang Xiaotong The Washington Institute for Near East Policy: China's Push for Satellite Cooperation in the Middle East by Henry Tugendhat Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Forty years ago, Shenzhen was a small southern Chinese fishing village, just across the border from Hong Kong. Today, it's one of the world's most advanced megacities, with a population of nearly 20 million people and home to many of the tech industry's largest companies, including Huawei, Tencent, DJI, and Transsion, among countless others. That remarkable transformation within a single lifetime offers important lessons for Kenya, Vietnam, and other developing countries seeking to build their own technology hubs. Grace Yuehan Wang, a visiting scholar at the London School of Economics and a research fellow at Stellenbosch University in Cape Town, joins Eric to discuss her new book, which explores how Shenzhen was able to develop so quickly and what lessons its remarkable rise offers countries across the Global South seeking to build their own technology hubs. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode 🏙️ Shenzhen's rise as a global tech hub 🇨🇳 Why Shenzhen isn't China's Silicon Valley 🏛️ The role of local government 💡 Grassroots innovation and entrepreneurship 🌍 Lessons for the Global South 🚀 Can the Shenzhen model be replicated? Show Notes: Amazon: Dragon Innovation: Shenzhen: Lessons for the West and global south countries from China's leading innovation cluster by Grace Yuehan Wang ThinkChina: Shenzhen: The city that built China's tech empire by Chen Xiangming and Taylor Lynch Ogan Financial Times: China's Xi pursues AI diplomacy to woo the Global South by Joe Leahy and Eleanor Olcott  Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas