Will Canadian Bank Earnings Take a Hit as the Economy Slows?

In this episode, we break down what goeasy’s collapse could signal for the broader Canadian economy and banking sector. We revisit past Canadian bank failures, connect them to today’s rising job losses and economic weakness, and explain why subprime lenders tend to crack first in a downturn. We also discuss whether Canadian banks could face headwinds after a strong run, and compare Goeasy to Propel to assess risks across alternative lenders. Tickers: GSY.TO, PRL.TO, RY.TO, NA.TO, CM.TO Subscribe to our Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Our New Youtube Channel! Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged, but the bigger story may be just how stuck policymakers are becoming. We discuss weakening growth, stubborn pockets of inflation, higher energy prices, and what the latest CPI data says about the Canadian economy. We also break down Alimentation Couche-Tard’s latest earnings and why the market was underwhelmed despite decent headline growth. Same-store sales, consumer pressure, and slowing organic momentum remain key issues. We then turn to Adobe and The Trade Desk, looking at Adobe’s AI strategy and leadership transition, and why new concerns around Trade Desk are putting added pressure on investor confidence. Tickers discussed: ATD, ADBE, TTD   Subscribe to Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of The Canadian Investor Podcast, we break down Constellation Software’s latest earnings and conference call, including what management had to say about AI, software pricing, acquisition strategy, and why the company may be looking more closely at public market opportunities. We then shift to the growing stress in private credit. We discuss new data showing record default rates in 2025, redemption pressure hitting major private credit funds, and what recent moves by BlackRock and Blackstone may be signaling for the broader market. We also talk about the incentives behind private credit funds, liquidity risks, and why many investors may not fully understand what they own. Finally, we wrap up with Canadian Natural Resources’ latest results, highlighting strong production growth, free cash flow, dividend growth, and why elevated oil prices continue to support the Canadian energy sector. Tickers mentioned: CSU.TO, SABR, BLK, BX, CNQ.TO   Subscribe to our Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Our New Youtube Channel! Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of The Canadian Investor Podcast, we break down the stunning collapse in Goeasy after the company shocked investors with a major financial update ahead of earnings. What was expected to be a gradual deterioration turned into a full-blown blow-up, with sharply higher charge-offs, a suspended dividend and buyback program, withdrawn guidance, potential restatements of past financials, and debt covenant issues that could become existential for the business. We walk through the key details from the release, why the market reacted so violently, and why the company’s comments around LendCare, delinquent loans, and prior reporting practices raise even more questions. We also revisit the red flags we had been discussing for months, including ballooning interest receivables, aggressive loan book growth, and the growing disconnect between goeasy’s reported performance and the broader credit environment. To finish on a more positive note, we also discuss strong results from Franco-Nevada and what higher gold prices could mean for the royalty giant going forward. Tickers discussed: GSY.TO, FNV.TO   Watch the full video on Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of The Canadian Investor Podcast, Simon Belanger and Dan Kent kick things off with a surprising ripple effect from the AI boom: a full-blown RAM/memory shortage that’s sending PC upgrade costs through the roof. They break down why high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is crowding out “normal” consumer RAM production, how Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are prioritizing the most profitable AI-driven demand, and what that could mean for pricing, upgrade cycles, and the broader tech supply chain. From there, they shift into a pragmatic, investor-focused look at positioning during geopolitical uncertainty—without cheerleading conflict. Dan outlines key areas investors often look at in these environments: defense contractors (and why buying after the headlines can be “buying the umbrella in the rain”), Canadian energy as a cleaner way to express higher oil prices with less Middle East exposure, the growing (and expensive) opportunity set in cybersecurity, and gold as both a safe haven and an inflation hedge. They also touch on different ways to gain exposure—individual names vs. ETFs—and wrap up with updates on the podcast’s YouTube live plans and what’s coming next. Tickers of Stocks discussed: LMT, NOC, GD, RTX, MU, AEM, FNV, WPM, ZJG.TO   Subscribe to our Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Our New Youtube Channel! Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In our very first YouTube Live (also released on the podcast feed), we pivot from a planned “all-banks” episode after major U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran pushed markets into risk-off mode. We break down the key market transmission mechanism—energy—through the Strait of Hormuz, rising shipping risk, and why yields can rise during conflict when inflation expectations jump. From there, we shift into what Canadian investors actually own: the banks. We recap earnings and credit trends across Royal Bank (RBC), TD, National Bank (NA), and CIBC, including loan/deposit momentum, net interest margin commentary, and what provisions/allowances are signaling. We also discuss the “do nothing” historical playbook for geopolitical shocks—plus why oil-driven conflicts can be the exception—and wrap with how we’re thinking about positioning (cash, Canadian energy exposure, and watching for opportunities if volatility expands). Tickers mentioned: RY.TO, TD.TO, NA.TO, CM.TO, LMT, RTX, NOC.   Watch the full video on Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this news-style episode, Simon and Dan break down Citrini Research’s The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis—a “note from the future” dated June 30, 2028 that frames the most bullish AI adoption path as a surprisingly bearish outcome for the real economy. They walk through the core feedback loop: companies deploy AI to boost productivity and margins, layoffs rise (especially in white-collar roles), consumer spending weakens, and the cycle reinforces itself—creating what the piece calls “ghost GDP,” where productivity climbs but wages and demand don’t keep up. From there, the duo digs into the sectors Citrini argues get hit first and hardest: SaaS (seat contraction + customers using AI as renewal leverage), the intermediation layer (agents shopping travel, subscriptions, insurance, delivery, and more), and even payment rails as AI agents chase lower-cost settlement via stablecoins. They also connect the dots to private credit and insurance flywheels—where mark-to-model portfolios can look stable until forced selling and capital needs expose stress—and what rising unemployment could mean for housing in once “prime” white-collar markets.   Tickers discussed: V, MA, AXP, DFS, PYPL, AMZN, WMT, EXPE, UBER, DASH, SHOP, GOOGL, PLTR, TRI, OWL, APO, BN, KKR, CRM, ADBE, AIG   Citrini research report Subscribe to our Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Our New Youtube Channel! Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Simon and Dan kick off with a quick update on the Canadian Investor Podcast’s first YouTube Live (March 3rd at noon ET). Then it’s straight into the GoEasy saga: Q4 earnings get pushed right up near the regulatory deadline, adding to a growing list of red flags around leadership turnover and loan-book quality. Simon and Dan explain why, like poker, you can’t cherry-pick the information you like. Next, Canadian Tire shows momentum: improving comps, margin expansion, and buybacks doing the heavy lifting—plus a look at rising credit-card write-offs and how the company is using AI to sharpen promos and inventory. They also dig into Blue Owl as private credit stress goes mainstream—redemptions, asset sales, and “par value” optics in a mark-to-model world. Finally, Home Depot remains stuck in a slow renovation cycle, leaning harder into the pro/distribution channel through acquisitions as higher rates weigh on demand. Tickers discussed: GSY, CTC.A, OWL, BAM, BN, HD, BRK.B Watch the full video on Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Simon and Dan take a break from the usual AI doom talk to focus on the other side of the trade: industries AI is unlikely to disrupt—and may actually strengthen. They discuss why parts of the “real economy” (natural resources, waste collection, skilled trades, and critical infrastructure work) have durable moats tied to physical assets, regulation, and human accountability. In Stocks on Our Radar, Dan revisits Shopify after a sharp drawdown and explains why AI could be a tailwind through payments and backend infrastructure, even if storefront tools get commoditized. Simon breaks down why he started a position in WSP Global, pointing to its backlog, acquisition strategy, and long runway from grid buildouts and electrification tied to AI-driven energy demand. Tickers discussed: SHOP, WSP.TO, ACM, PWR, BDGI.TO, ARE.TO Subscribe to our Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Our New Youtube Channel! Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Simon and Dan are back with another earnings-driven episode — this time focused entirely on Canadian companies. They dig into a fresh batch of results across insurance, commodities, transportation, and airlines, discussing what’s actually driving performance beneath the headlines, why some stocks are pulling back despite strong fundamentals, and how different business models are holding up in a slowing economy. The conversation touches on operating leverage, cash flow trends, balance sheet strength, cyclical pressures, and how today’s environment is reshaping investor sentiment — including where AI could become a tailwind versus a real threat. They also explore why more “real-world” businesses may be starting to look attractive again after years of being overlooked. Expect a mix of earnings analysis, macro context, capital allocation discussion, and a few candid rants along the way. Tickers discussed: IFC.TO, AEM.TO, TFII.TO, AC.TO   Watch the full video on Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.