George Friedman on America's Real Iran Goals: Regime Change or Regional Reset?

As war rages in the Middle East, the future of Iran remains an open question. The same can be said for Lebanon, where exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel have been taking place for more than a week. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by Senior Analyst Hilal Khashan for a ground-level perspective on the escalating conflict in Lebanon, and to explore the broader regional impacts of the Iran war. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion, and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

The ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which began over the weekend, come after a protracted period of tension, negotiations and military build-up. Tehran has now said it will attack U.S. assets in the region in response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes, which killed several top Iranian officials and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  So why, in a world where the U.S. is trying to withdraw from anything outside the Western Hemisphere, does the U.S. still care about Iran? Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss how we got here, intelligence failures, and the future of the Iranian regime, which could look quite different or remain just a new version of the same. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion, and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

Americans are deeply divided, passions are running high, and many fear the Republic is failing. But is any of this actually new? In our recent ClubGPF live discussion, GPF Chairman George Friedman revisited his book The Storm Before the Calm to explain where we are in America's recurring 80-year institutional cycle. Drawing parallels to the Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression, George shows that the current crisis is the least threatening of the four great institutional upheavals in American history. To learn more about ClubGPF, including more free audio and video clips, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/join-clubgpf-bundle/.

Following the 2026 Munich Security Conference, the transatlantic alliance appears to be at a crossroads. With the Russian threat failing to manifest and the U.S. shifting its strategic focus, is the "divorce" between these old allies inevitable, or is it a necessary evolution? In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to examine why the U.S. views European reliance as exploitation rather than obligation, and to explore whether Europe can finally overcome its fragmented history to build a unified defense capability. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion, and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

At January's World Economic Forum in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney argued that the old world order is not coming back. He went on to say that we are now in an era of great power rivalry, and that middle powers, like Canada, should come together to counter the rise of great powers. So what could the new order look like, and just how much influence can middle powers wield compared to the U.S. and China? They may be smaller by GDP standards but they are not without importance geopolitically.   In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss it all, to examine why the U.S. and Canada can't just decouple from one another, and what will happen to Cuba now that it has reached a tipping point in its economy and its defense. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

This week, leaders from Russia, Ukraine and the United States will meet in Abu Dhabi for another round of peace talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine; a conflict which has continued for four years this month. After so much fighting, what does Russia still hope to get out of negotiations, and is it willing to concede after not reaching its goals? Russia's economy has suffered immensely as a result of the war and by several measures simply can no longer be considered a major power on the world stage. To discuss the upcoming negotiations, where Europe stands on it all and how parallels can also be drawn between the current conflict and the Vietnam War, Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

Earlier this month, Geopolitical Futures released its annual Forecast, which focuses on the most critical changes to the international order in the year to come. One of the featured predictions in this year's Forecast was on the shifting relationship between the United States and China. It is a relationship that GPF Chairman George Friedman believes will define the next generation of international relations. This week on Talking Geopolitics, George joined host Christian Smith to give a preview of this forecast, and we'll even dive into the perplexing logic of Donald Trump's will-he, won't-he attempt to take ownership of Greenland from Denmark, a NATO ally. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

Widespread anti-government protests in Iran have been growing for weeks now in Iran, and the government crackdown has turned deadly. While protests here are not a new phenomenon, many are saying this time things are much different. With the US poised to intervene and the future of the Iranian regime hanging in the balance, this week on the podcast we're taking a look at how the situation is evolving and how it is perceived by the wider region. Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman as well as Geopolitical Futures contributing analyst Kamran Bokhari to break it all down. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

With the new U.S. National Security Strategy published by the White House only a month ago, we're already seeing what America's vision for prioritizing the Western Hemisphere looks like. Following America's seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday, the world is now questioning just how far the US might go to achieve its goal. What are its intentions with Cuba, and how far is it willing to push NATO allies in the issue of Greenland?  GPF Chairman George Friedman joins Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith for our first podcast of the new year, as we dive into what is going on in the Western Hemisphere. You'll also get a sneak peek into our predictions for China, as part of our upcoming 2026 Forecast. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

America's new National Security Strategy reflects a fundamental change in U.S. policy. It prioritizes America maintaining its preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, while avoiding military competition with China as well as European conflicts. At the same time the White House has taken pen to paper on its new policy, military pressure on Venezuela is ramping up as the Trump administration sanctions oil tankers in the region. This week on Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss these escalations and what it all has to do with Cuba. And for more analysis, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter/ to get access to our free newsletter as well as our NEW special report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line, by GPF Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu. This report is available for a limited time.