2026 Outlook: macro, monetary policy & rates

Tariffs, currency pressures, a property slump: China faces challenges on multiple fronts. Meanwhile, Australia’s resilient economy risks triggering inflation. How will these and other factors affect the region’s economies in 2026? Joining Rod Ireland, Head of Global Markets for APAC, to break down the outlook are Abbas Keshvani, Asia Macro Strategist, and Rob Thompson, Macro Rates Strategist.

With government spend poised to spike, defense valuations in Europe are at record highs. But the response to global threats brings opportunities for a much wider set of industrials and innovators. Dominic Hudson, Head of Investment Banking for Europe and APAC, is joined by Cliff Bayer, Head of Aerospace, Defense and Government Services; Rob Jurd, Head of Industrials for Europe; and Claire Sturgess, Head of Canadian Industrials and CME Investment Banking, to explore the sector’s outlook for 2026.

As rocketing demand growth collides with real supply constraints, how can energy, power, and mining players fund and deliver the large-scale projects required? Joining Trevor Gardner, Head of Investment Banking Coverage, to survey the sectors’ outlook for 2026 are Chris Redgate, Head of Canadian Energy Investment Banking; Craig Edgar, Managing Director, Power Utilities and Infrastructure; and Farid Dadashev, Global Co-Head of Mining and Metals.

Domestic demand is on the rise in Europe. In the U.K., the labor market shows promising shifts. Could these trends help both economies in their battle with poor productivity and low growth? Sian Hurrell, Head of RBC Capital Markets Europe, is joined by Global Macro Strategist Peter Schaffrik and Senior U.K. Economist Cathal Kennedy to explore the forces shaping the economic outlook for 2026.

What are the options for global economies’ monetary policy in 2026, and are the markets pricing in the right moves? Jason Daw, Head of North American Rates Strategy, is joined by fellow rates experts from across the globe to set out their projections for the year ahead, and assess the likely impact on bond yields and curves.

Growth is too low for comfort, inflation is too high. What are the prospects of the U.S. breaking out of its ‘stagflation-lite’ zone in 2026? For this annual economic outlook, Vito Sperduto is joined by Chief Economist Frances Donald and U.S. Economist Michael Reid, to analyze the likely impact of the labor market, consumer sentiment, public spending, and other key trends.

At the height of 2025’s tariff cycle, few would have expected Canada to enter 2026 resilient and recession-free. Behind the optimism, however, lies a fragmented economy. For this economic outlook, Lindsay Patrick, Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer, asks Chief Economist Frances Donald to delve into Canada’s structural problems, and what – if anything – the government and central bank can do to tackle them.

AI momentum is converging with rising credit stress, softening consumer trends, and a pivotal December Fed decision. RBC’s Amy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives Strategy, joins Ben Fisher and Callie Simpkins of Cross-Asset Sales to unpack how investors are managing risk through shadow hedging, quietly preparing for downside even as they maintain upside exposure. They also explore how hyperscaler issuance, retail exhaustion, and shifting sentiment are shaping the next phase of market risk in this episode of RBC Capital Markets’ Strategic Alternatives.

The prevailing bear case suggests AI's rapid rise is eclipsing traditional software growth. New research from RBC Capital Markets takes a more nuanced view. In this episode of Strategic Alternatives, Matthew Hedberg, Head of Global TIMT Research, and Nate Mahrer, TMT Desk Sector Strategist, examine why reports of software's decline have been overstated and discuss how software vendors can strategically position themselves to capitalize on AI opportunities.

Hedge fund assets now surpass $5 trillion. But in a risk-laden market, what will be the impact of macro and micro trends on future growth? Jack Weiss, Head of Cross Asset Hedge Fund Sales, explores what's next for hedge funds with Greg Hart, Head of Global Markets Sales – U.S. This episode was recorded on October 23, 2025.