The Probability Edge - How to Know if Your Trading Strategy Actually Works w/ Justin Kay

After a trader's six-figure loss from a busted options trade, the community's. response reveals exactly why institutions view retail as easy targets.This isn't about feeling good—it's about why "the market is rigged" is the most expensive belief in trading.

Video of my Guest Appearance on ThetaProfits Show:Many options traders dream of going full-time, but could you handle the pressure? After hitting rock bottom, Kirk Durbin made trading his only path forward. In this eye-opening conversation, he reveals the mental battles, financial risks, and strategies that helped him survive as a full-time options trader. Watch now to learn what it really takes to trade for a living!Read a text summary of the interview on Theta Profits: https://www.thetaprofits.com/what-it-takes-to-trade-options-full-time/

Imagine closing a trade, seeing it confirmed in your account, only to receive a shocking broker call the next morning: "That position? It's back—with a $117,000 liability." In this video, we discuss trade busts, the CBOE Rules, and chat with Dale Perryman about his ongoing nightmare with an overnight trade bust.This isn't fear-mongering—it's happening to real traders in our community. Could your account handle a six-figure surprise?======================Get 50% Off Option Omega's Option Backtesting Software https://optionomega.com/register/kirkdurbin

In the most volatile week we've seen in YEARS, one trader lost EVERYTHING when his stop orders failed during that insane 400+-point SPX god candle. I've been chatting with fellow traders and listening to their experiences.Let's review the different types of stops and open Pandora's box of "Algo Stops vs Broker-Resting"Real examplesReal lossesReal solutions======================Get 50% Off Option Omega's Option Backtesting Software https://optionomega.com/register/kirkdurbin

In this (essential) video, special guest, Justin Kay break down how simple statistics can reveal whether your trading strategy has a genuine edge or is just producing random results. 🔍 What you'll learn:• The fundamental statistical concepts every trader needs to know• How to determine if your trading results are skill or just luck• Simple tests to validate your backtesting results• Real examples of statistical analysis applied to options strategies• Common statistical traps that fool retail tradersJustin has a couple of courses going deeper into these topics and how they apply to 1dte trades. To learn more visit:https://academy.optionomega.com/course/1dte-options-crashcoursehttps://academy.optionomega.com/course/advanced-1dte-options-crash-courseSlides: https://speakinggreeks.com/resources/2025_03_22_SpecialKayme_TheProbabilityEdge.pdf============================Get 50% Off Option Omega's Option Backtesting Software https://optionomega.com/register/kirkdurbin

CBOE is implementing Wide Market Protection (WMP) in April 2025. So, what does this mean for retail traders?I break down what this means for retail traders selling options. Will this new feature protect us from extreme slippage or potentially cause more problems?In this video, I analyze: ✅ What Wide Market Protection actually does ✅ The specific thresholds that trigger WMP ✅ How this affects stop losses and market orders ✅ Real-world examples with SPX options ✅ Potential benefits and concerns for retail tradersAfter the implementation of Drill-Through Protection last year, many retail traders saw reduced slippage despite initial concerns. Will WMP have the same positive effect? Share your experiences with significant slippage in the comments below!More Info: https://www.cboe.com/notices/content/?id=53759======================Get 50% Off Option Omega's Option Backtesting Software https://optionomega.com/register/kirkdurbin

Does your trading strategy actually work, or are you just getting lucky? In this Q&A session, we're joined by Mark Anderson, a retail trader turned hedge fund managerMark breaks down the backtesting process in plain English – from choosing the right parameters, making sure your test isn't lying to you, and avoiding the common pitfalls that make most retail backtests completely worthless. ---------Mark's YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@zerodaymarkMastro's X: https://x.com/routinetrader---------Join us at https://speakinggreeks.com

February is in the books and the Speaking Greeks Jam Session is here!A solid month with a tough final week and a wild end-of-month trade!Want to join us next time? Hop into the community at SpeakingGreeks.com.☕ https://ko-fi.com/speakinggreeks

Our first Speaking Greeks Jam Session is here! It was a hectic day, so it's a bit of a rough start—but trust me, this was a blast. I’m stoked to do it again in February! Want to join us next time? Hop into the community at SpeakingGreeks.com. ☕ https://ko-fi.com/speakinggreeks