I've Never Been More Uncertain About Meta Ads

For years the direction of Meta advertising was clear enough to predict, and most of those predictions held up. But AI has scrambled the picture, and the trend line now runs into a space that's genuinely hard to comprehend. Jon sets the tactics aside for an honest, uneasy look at what it all means.

Meta is removing placement control for sales and leads campaigns, and advertisers are predictably freaking out. Jon explains why the change matters far less than it sounds, and why value rules are the control you should have been reaching for all along.

Fifteen years in, the celebrating gives way to a more honest look back at what worked and what didn't. This final entry in the anniversary series shares the lessons that mattered most, but it doesn't end there. Jon also opens up about two real regrets, including one he still hasn't figured out.

To mark 15 years since a layoff turned into JonLoomer.com, Jon sets aside the usual solo format for a rare interview with longtime teammate Luke Elliott. It's a blast from the past, but really a conversation about change: how Jon went from the complicated-targeting guy to preaching simplicity, why the uncomfortable 2022 pivot to video saved the business, and how he's found a place for AI without letting it replace the human work.

Two 15-year anniversaries fall the same month, a second layoff and the launch of JonLoomer.com days later. These episodes usually stay locked on Meta advertising, but a long drive to move the youngest son into college makes room to look back. Jon tells the origin story behind the brand, from repeated layoffs to a website meant only to find work, and how it became the business he'd dreamed of. It let him coach his three boys and be there as they grew, and it was worth it.

Value rules are one of Meta's most useful newer features, letting you nudge bids up or down instead of restricting your audience outright. But advertisers reach for them far too often, and because value rules deliberately raise costs. Jon lays out the two questions that separate a necessary value rule from a wasteful one.

One of the most popular myths in Meta advertising is that the conversion numbers are made up. But Meta only knows about a purchase because your event fired, which means the real problem is almost never fabricated results, it's advertisers who don't understand what their conversions actually mean. Jon explains how deduplication issues, attribution windows, and repeat customers inflate your numbers, and why fixing it is on you.

Incremental attribution reports only the conversions your ads actually caused, and most advertisers would be better off making it their default. But standard attribution isn't the real problem, it's the advertisers who take inflated view-through results at face value and scale on them anyway. Jon explains why he'd push nearly everyone toward incremental even though he doesn't always use it himself, and why the drop advertisers fear is mostly an illusion.

Restricting age and gender feels like smart budgeting, and it's the most understandable mistake in Meta advertising. But when you optimize for purchases, Meta already wants what you want, and every restriction you add just shrinks the pool and raises your costs before the algorithm gets a chance to surprise you. Jon explains why you should start broad, when value rules are the better tool, and why refining your audience based on results almost never holds up.

Most advertisers still obsess over targeting controls, remarketing campaigns, and which single ad won. But the foundations of Meta advertising today point the other way: consolidate your budget, trust the algorithm, and let creative do the reaching. Jon breaks down the core elements that actually matter now, and the old habits worth abandoning.