Trump's India Tariff Tirade: A Gift to Beijing? With Evan Feigenbaum

This week on Sinica, I speak first with retired Senior Colonel Zhou Bo, a frequent commentator on Chinese military and security affairs and a prolific writer now at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, and with Rana Mitter of the Harvard Kennedy School and author of Forgotten Ally, a book about World War II in China.I will update this page when the transcript is ready. Check back in a couple of days!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Dave Kang (USC), Zenobia Chan (Georgetown), and Jackie Wong (American University in Sharjah, UAE) about their new paper in International Security titled "What Does China Want?" The paper, which has generated quite a bit of controversy, takes a data-driven approach to examine the claim that China seeks global hegemony — that it wants to supplant the U.S. as a globe-spanning top power. I'm traveling much of this week, so I'll update this podcast page when the transcript comes back!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on the Sinica Podcast, I welcome back Evan Feigenbaum, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Evan served for many years as a State Department official, was the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia and Central Asia among his numerous positions in government, and was instrumental in building the U.S.-India relationship after 2000 — only to watch Trump round on India in recent months, slapping large punitive tariffs on the South Asian giant ostensibly over its purchases of Russian oil. What motivated Trump? And how does this look from New Delhi and from Beijing? Will China capitalize on the strains in the U.S.-Indian relationship? Listen and find out.04:12 – Building "trust" in politics10:22 – Changes in U.S. policy15:11 – Did India take advantage of Russia? 20:07 – How U.S. rules shape India 25:21 – "Rebuilding" the U.S.–India relationship29:56 – Beijing on Trump vs. India 42:48 – India, Quad, and Indo-Pacific strategy 49:55 – Managing U.S.–India tensions Paying it Forward: Kenji KushidaRecommendations: Evan: How China Is Reshaping International Security Cooperation by Sheena Greitens and Isaac KardonKaiser: How Sino-centrism and U.S.-centrism warp(ed?) Beijing’s foreign policy thinking by Tang Shiping and Qi DapengSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I'm delighted to be joined by Dan Wang, formerly of Gavekal Dragonomics and the Paul Tsai Law Center at Yale University, now with the Hoover Institute's History Lab. Dan's new book is Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future, and it's already one of the year's most talked-about books. In this conversation, we go beyond what's actually in the book to discuss the origins and implications of the Chinese "engineering state" — the world's biggest technocratic polity — and what the United States should and should not learn from China. We discuss how Dan's ideas sit with Abundance by Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein, and much more. Don't miss this episode!03:51 – Guitar industry in Guizhou09:49 – Engineering state vs. lawyerly society23:13 – Downsides of the engineering state34:24 – Process knowledge: U.S. vs. China43:01 – Attitudes toward technology: U.S. vs China52:32 – Historical roots of the engineering state in China59:48 – Building institutions that bind outcomes to rights01:04:15 – What can be learned from the COVID lockdowns01:07:51 – The tradeoff between resilience and efficiency01:10:52 – Dan's view on Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein's "Abundance" argument01:13:41 – Legitimacy in China and the U.S.01:21:13 – Building toward cultural pluralism Paying it Forward: Afra Wang, He Liu.Recommendations:Dan: Mozart's Italian operas, written with Lorenzo Da Ponte; The Red and the Black by Stendhal; In Search of Lost Time by Marcel Proust; Moby Dick by Herman Melville; Bleak House by Charles Dickens.Kaiser: China is enjoying Trump 2.0 by Yun Sun (article), books:  Revolutionary Spring, The Sleepwalkers by Christopher ClarkSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Artificial intelligence has been a frequent topic on Sinica in recent years — but usually through the lens of the two countries that have produced the leading models and companies: the United States and China. We’ve covered generative AI, national strategies, governance frameworks, and the geopolitical implications of AI leadership.This webinar, broadcast on the morning of August 14, broadens that lens to explore how other countries — and especially Ukraine — are approaching AI in the public sector. Around the world, governments are experimenting with AI well beyond chatbots and text generation: China’s “City Brain” optimizes traffic, energy use, and public safety; U.S. agencies are streamlining services and automating benefits processing; and elsewhere, smart grids, predictive infrastructure planning, and AI-enabled e-governance are reshaping public administration. These projects reveal both the promise and the complexity of bringing AI into government — along with valid concerns over privacy, fairness, and inclusiveness.We’ll look at what lessons Ukraine might draw from U.S. and Chinese experiences, the opportunities and challenges of adapting these practices, and the strategic risks of sourcing AI solutions from different providers — especially in the context of Ukraine’s eventual postwar reconstruction.Joining us are three distinguished guests:Dmytro Yefremov, Board Member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, with deep expertise in China’s political and technological strategies and Ukraine’s policy landscape.Wang Guan, Chairman of Learnable.ai in China, bringing extensive experience in AI applications for public administration and education.Karman Lucero, Associate Research Scholar and Senior Fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, whose work focuses on Chinese law, governance, and the regulation of emerging technologies.Thanks to the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China, the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, and the Center for Slavic, Eurasian, and East European Studies at the University of North Carolina–Chapel Hill for organizing and sponsoring today’s event. Special thanks to Vita Golod for putting together the panel and inviting me to moderate.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Join me for a conversation with four fantastic panelists about nuclear safety and security issues brought on by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and more broadly on the state of nuclear security globally during this era of dramatic change.This program was made possible by the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China and the Center for Slavic, Eurasian, and East European Studies at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill.Nickolas Roth is Senior Director for Nuclear Materials Security at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). Nickolas works at the intersection of arms control, risk reduction, and institutional resilience, and previously directed nuclear security work at the Stimson Center and contributed to Harvard’s Project on Managing the Atom.Mariana Budjeryn is a Senior Research Associate with Managing the Atom at Harvard’s Belfer Center and author of Inheriting the Bomb, a definitive study of Ukraine’s post-Soviet disarmament and the limits of the Budapest Memorandum. Her scholarship grounds today’s debates about guarantees, coercion, and nuclear restraint.Pan Yanliang is a Research Associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS). He studies the Russian and Chinese nuclear industries and the nuclear fuel cycle, and works on CNS engagement with Chinese counterparts—giving him a distinctive cross-regional vantage.Lily Wojtowicz is a Research Fellow at the Hertie School (Berlin) and a USIP–Minerva Peace & Security Scholar, whose work focuses on extended deterrence credibility, European security, and alliance adaptation under great-power rivalry.5:19 - The Gap Between Coercive Rhetoric and First-use Thresholds11:26 - The Implication of Ukraine’s allies regarding weapons 17:26 - Golden Dome21:30 - China’s Position on Nuclear Weapons29:25 - How Belarus Altered European Debates 31:13 - Civilian Nuclear Power 38:32 - North Korea’s Support for Russia40:59 - Beijing on NATO and Asian Security43:09 - Europe’s Reaction to Nuclear Risk45:44 - Nuclear Risk in the Russia-Ukraine War52:56 - Trump’s Impact on Kremlin Nuclear Thinking1:01:52 - US-China Nuclear Relations1:04:49 - Ukraine’s Nuclear DisarmamentSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Paul Triolo of DGA Albright Stonebridge and tech investor Ryan Cunningham join to talk about their observations and insights from the World AI Conference (WAIC), held in July in Shanghai, and what it tells them about China's ambitions in the fast-moving world of artificial intelligence. Don't miss this one!04:21 - Ryan on his Edgerunner fund06:23 - Impressions of the World AI Conference in Shanghai13:52 - Approaches to AI development in the US and China24:04 - China’s role in global AI safety 33:42 - AI market: US vs China38:20 - AI diffusion in China44:56 - AI safety frameworks52:06 - Domestic development of Chinese AI1:04:06 - Pressure of Domestic AI Alternatives1:08:43 - Can AI have a dual role in the U.S.?1:17:25 -Paying it Forward 1:20:16 - RecommendationsPaying it Forward: Kevin Xu, Kyle Chan, Helen Toner (Rising Tide Substack),  Piotr Mazurek and Felix Gabriel (LLM Inference Economics from First Principles).Recommendations: Paul: Neil deGrasse Tyson - Origins: Fourteen Billion Years of Cosmic Evolution (book),  Sara Imari Walker’s Life As No One Knows It (book)Ryan: Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon (video game)Kaiser: The Studio (TV series), Platonic (TV series)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica: On my final two days in Shaxi in Yunnan, Chris Thomas and Stephanie Li, the hosts of the marvelous YouTube channel Chinese Cooking Demystified, joined me for some cooking and lots of chatting about food! We recorded this show together and focus our conversation on their heroic attempt at a taxonomy of different Chinese cuisines. We don't talk about all 63 that they identify, but we do get into their04:31 - Flavors of Yunnan 08:44 - On balancing between the “exotic” and “normal” China 11:53 - The origin story behind “Chinese Cooking Demystified”14:56 - The Breath of the Wok (Wok Hei, 鑊氣 / huo6 hei3)21:05 - A Comprehensive Taxonomy on Chinese Cuisine 32:25 - Correlations between dialects and cuisine 37:15 - Efforts behind the work39:09 - Promoting local specialties44:23 - Chinese identity and food trends52:30 - "Minority" cuisine in Yunnan01:00:52 - Yunnan cuisine and the Chinese hipster generation01:05:52 - Dali dish recommendationsRecommendations: Chris & Steph: Shunde Lao Baby, Pin Nuo, Lao DongbeiKaiser: Taking time off to do something you love!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I'm in Shaxi, a wonderful little town in the Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, and I was joined here by the Columbia economic historian Adam Tooze, who shared his thoughts on what he sees happening on the ground in China. Adam's been in China for the last month and reflects on his experiences learning about the country — and even attempting the language!03:49 - The economic situation in China10:42 - Patterns of consumption in China14:38 - China’s industrial policy and renewable energy 18:52 - China vs. the U.S. on renewables26:15 - China’s economic engagement with the Global South33:13- Beijing’s strategic shift and Europe’s rethinking37:49- The recent European Parliament paper42:43 - Learning about China as an “Outsider” 51:31 - Adam’s evolving views on China 59:30 - Paying it Forward01:01:07 - Recommendations Paying it Forward: Kyle Chan, Pekingology.Recommendations: Adam: Caught by the Tide, Jia Zhangke (movie).Kaiser: Empire of AI: Dreams and Nightmares in Sam Altman’s OpenAI, Karen Hao (book), Vera, or Faith, Gary Shteyngart (book).See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, in a show taped in early June in Washington, Kaiser chats with Tong Zhao (赵通) of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a leading expert on Chinese nuclear doctrine, about why the PRC has, in recent years, significantly increased the size of its nuclear arsenal. Zhao offers a master class in the practice of strategic empathy.03:12 – China’s nuclear doctrine: core principles06:56 – Xi Jinping’s leadership and nuclear policy12:33 – Symbolism vs. strategy: Defensive or offensive buildup?16:55 – What’s driving the nuclear expansion?28:33 – Trump’s second term: Impact on China’s strategic thinking34:34 – Nukes and Taiwan41:45 – Washington and Beijing nuclear doctrines perceptions48:04 - China’s perspective on the Golden Dome program52:32 - China’s Stance on North Korea’s nuclear program 01:01:00 - Beijing’s View on North Korean troops in UkrainePaying it forward: David Logan, at Tufts UniversityRecommendations:Tong:  Yellowstone, TV series Kaiser: Gomorrah, TV series See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.