Episode 450: International Funds, Nomads, New Vanguard ETFs and Portfolio Reviews As Of August 29, 2025

In this episode we answer emails from a Mysterious Visitor, Pal and Byron.  We review our approach to international stock funds and how to improve their diversification, try to help out a Canadian nomad and discuss some new Vanguard funds.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:US vs International Stocks In Strong And Weak Dollar Markets (link from Episode 393:  us-dollar-strength-has-correlated-with-performance-03312023.pdfTestfolio Analysis of VXUS vs. AVDV and IDMO:  testfol.io/analysis?s=eDLfJ4jcFLKConstructing a Golden Ratio Portfolio with International Components:  We Built a 5% SWR Retirement Portfolio Using Fidelity in 48 Minutes (Golden Ratio Portfolio)Byron's Link:  Vanguard Launches a New Actively Managed Bond ETF | VanguardNew Wellington ETFs:  Vanguard to Launch First Stock-Picking ETFs With Wellington — at Its Highest Fees YetBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Conventional wisdom about international diversification gets turned on its head as we explore what truly drives the performance difference between domestic and international stocks. Far from being about different economies or company headquarters, approximately 40-50% of this performance gap stems directly from currency fluctuations between the US dollar and foreign currencies. When the dollar weakens, international stocks surge; when it strengthens, US stocks lead.For investors focused on building resilient portfolios with sustainable withdrawal rates, this revelation reshapes diversification priorities. Value versus growth diversification emerges as significantly more important than geographic diversification, followed by size factor (small versus large caps). This hierarchy challenges the simplistic notion that pairing a total US market fund with a total international fund provides meaningful protection.Large US companies already operate globally, selling into worldwide markets regardless of headquarters location. This makes traditional total international funds less diversified from US large caps than many investors realize. Instead of blanket international exposure, we explore more effective approaches using specific international value, small-cap, and emerging market funds that provide genuine diversification benefits.The episode also tackles practical implementation questions, including how expatriates and nomadic investors might construct globally resilient portfolios using Irish-domiciled ETFs for potential tax advantages. We briefly examine Vanguard's new ETF offerings and explain why their corporate bond funds hold limited appeal for investors seeking recession insurance rather than income.Our monthly portfolio review highlights gold's stellar performance (up 31.56% year-to-date) amid dollar weakness, demonstrating the principles discussed throughout the episode. These eight real-world portfolios showcase different approaches to implementing risk parity principles, with performance and distribution data available at riskparityreview.com.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Nick, No Name, and Nathan.  We discuss transitioning at 70% to FI, the inherent problems with a lot of psychology-based and convenience-based finance media and personal finance that fails to do the finance part first, Mary's amusement with Frank's ego (don't encourage him), and financial coaching.And we get to hear from Abby at the Father McKenna Center.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterShannon's Demon Article:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsVideo Interview of Abby:  The Church's View on Homelessness Amid Trump’s Removal Plan in D.C. | EWTN News NightlyIf you have comments or questions, please send them to [email protected] or visit www.riskparityradio.com.Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:When should you transition from a high-equity portfolio to a risk parity approach? This question, posed by a listener at 70% of their FIRE number, launches us into an exploration of timing one of the most critical shifts in an investor's journey.The ideal transition point typically comes at 80% of your target number and about five years from your goal. The logic is straightforward: you want to secure your gains while your portfolio sits near all-time highs, shifting from aggressive growth to stability as you approach financial independence. Your decision should weigh how much you'll continue contributing and your personal risk tolerance.This episode also pulls back the curtain on the troubling state of financial media. Too many "experts" repeat outdated concepts like the "100 minus your age" rule—a relic from the 1990s with no empirical backing. We explore how financial advice has become psychologically driven rather than financially optimized, with advisors choosing strategies that are easy to explain rather than those that deliver optimal results.As Upton Sinclair observed, "It's difficult to get a person to understand something when their salary depends on them not understanding it." This explains why many advisors promote bucket strategies and time segmentation plans despite their inefficiency—they're selling what clients can understand, not what best serves their financial futures.The DIY investor's advantage is clear: we can focus on data first and psychology second. Your financial behaviors should align with your goals—if you want to spend more in retirement, you need a portfolio designed for that purpose, not just psychological tricks to feel comfortable underspending.Want to make better financial decisions? Stop trying to predict the future. Adopt a decade-long perspective instead of obsessing over current conditions. Remember that rebalancing works over time due to Shannon's Demon—the mathematical reality that regularly rebalanced diverse assets outperform in the long run.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Dave, Mike, and Andy.  We discuss an inherited IRA, 529s, how historical data provides more reliable investment guidance than simulated data based on crystal balls, particularly when considering economic environments and asset correlations, and the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.  Cleveland Rocks!And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donations:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterListener Blog Post Describing Risk Parity Concepts And Four Quadrant Model:  15 Uncorrelated Assets | SSiSBridgewater Research Paper:   Bridgewater Paper 2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc (granicus.com)Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Exhibit:  SNL: Ladies & Gentlemen...50 Years of Music | Rock & Roll Hall of FameBreathless Unedited AI-bot Summary:What happens when you try to predict market outcomes using simulated data rather than historical performance? Frank tackles this profound question by explaining why many investment simulations fail to capture the fundamental reality of how assets behave in different economic environments.Using a brilliant weather metaphor, Frank demonstrates why you "cannot have a drought and rainstorms at the same time" – just as you cannot simultaneously experience a recession and inflation. This insight explains why historical data, which shows how assets perform in specific economic conditions, provides more reliable guidance than simulations that treat each asset class as an independent variable.The episode also addresses practical financial concerns, including strategies for managing inherited IRAs subject to the 10-year distribution rule and approaches to college savings that balance tax advantages with flexibility. Frank shares his personal approach of using 529 plans primarily for state tax benefits while maintaining additional education funds in more accessible accounts.Weekly portfolio reviews reveal nearly all asset classes in positive territory this year, with gold shining brightest at +28.47% YTD. This unusual pattern reflects a weakening dollar, demonstrating how macroeconomic conditions influence asset performance across the board. The episode's exploration of base rates in forecasting also explains why predictions based on historical probabilities typically outperform crystal ball prognostications that assign outsized probabilities to possibilities rather than focusing on known patterns.For investors seeking to build robust portfolios for uncertain times, this episode offers invaluable perspective on understanding economic environments, recognizing asset correlations, and using historical data to prepare for different market conditions. Listen now to discover why the lessons of market history may be your most reliable investment guide.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Evan, James and Brandy.  We discuss the joys of more cowbell from first principles and its origin story, a recent back-and-forth between Karsten and Tyler, the inherent problems with trying to massage data with crystal balls and what it's really revealing about the shortcomings of a basic 75/25 portfolio, some nuggets from Bill Bengen's new book, and some musings about bitcoin and gold.Links:Early Retirement Now Article:  Can we increase the Safe Withdrawal Rate with Small-Cap Value Stocks? – SWR Series Part 62 - Early Retirement NowPortfolio Charts Response:  The Human Complexities of Correcting the Record – Portfolio ChartsBill Bengen's New Book | A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More.Lyn Alden Talk:  Nothing Stops This Train w/ Lyn Alden | Bitcoin 2025RSSX Fund:  ReturnStacked® U.S. Stocks & Gold/Bitcoin ETFBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:What makes a truly optimal retirement portfolio? The conventional wisdom suggesting a simple 75% S&P 500 and 25% bond allocation deserves serious reconsideration according to mounting evidence from multiple sources.Bill Bengen, creator of the original 4% withdrawal rule, has published a groundbreaking new book that challenges long-held assumptions about retirement spending. By incorporating a more diversified approach—including US large, small, mid-size, and micro-cap stocks alongside international equities and treasury bonds—Bengen demonstrates that safe withdrawal rates could potentially reach 4.7% or higher. When accounting for current inflation levels, he suggests rates between 5-5.5% might be sustainable with properly diversified portfolios.The historical data speaks volumes. When examining performance during the worst possible retirement starting years (1929, 1960s, 1972-73, 1999-2000, 2008-09), portfolios with value tilts or alternative assets consistently outperformed simple index-based approaches. This critical finding undermines the narrative that concentration in broad market indexes represents the safest approach for retirees who actually need to spend from their portfolios.We also explore Bitcoin's potential role in modern portfolios, examining its correlation with technology stocks and questioning whether it functions as a true diversifier. Unlike gold, which maintains near-zero correlation with equity markets, Bitcoin increasingly moves in tandem with growth stocks as institutional adoption increases. This distinction matters significantly for investors seeking stability rather than speculation. New financial products like RSSX are emerging to capitalize on this dynamic, combining stocks, gold, and Bitcoin with adjustments based on relative volatility.The fundamental question isn't about maximizing theoretical returns or terminal wealth, but about constructing portfolios that reliably provide income through various market conditions. A well-diversified approach has historically delivered better outcomes for those spending from their portfolios than simple stock/bond splits—aligning with Bengen's philosophy of spending more and enjoying retirement rather than dying with maximum wealth.Looking to refine your retirement strategy? Send your questions to [email protected] or visit riskparityradar.com to join the conversation.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Postmaster, John, and Patrick.  We discuss the ins and outs of managed futures, the outs of international bonds and currency funds, and Risk Parity Chronicles.  Reborn!And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donations:  Donate - Father McKenna Center Demystifying Managed Futures Article:  Demystifying Managed FuturesDBMF Video (and link to YouTube channel):  DBMF in Four MinutesMorningstar Article re Alternatives:  How ETF Diversifiers Performed During Market Turmoil | MorningstarSummary: “The Misbehavior of Markets”. A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin, and Reward by Benoit MandeRisk Parity Chronicles Shannon's Demon Article:  Shannon's Demon Explainer - by JustinRPC Article re Rebalancings:  Does threshold rebalancing work with leveraged funds?RPC Portfolios:  Overview of the RPC Portfolios - by JustinRPC Subscription Link:  Risk Parity Chronicles | Justin | SubstackBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Ever wondered how managed futures work and why they're becoming increasingly popular in diversified portfolios? This episode delivers a comprehensive explanation of these powerful but often misunderstood investment vehicles.Managed futures use trend-following strategies (academically called "time series momentum") to profit from price movements across commodities, currencies, interest rates, and equity indexes. Dating back to the 1960s, these strategies challenge efficient market theory by capitalizing on the observation that when prices start moving in a direction, they often continue that trajectory for extended periods.What makes managed futures particularly valuable is their complete lack of correlation with traditional assets like stocks and bonds, combined with their positive skew. Unlike stocks that "go up the stairs and down the elevator," managed futures typically deliver modest returns during normal markets but can produce extraordinary gains during extreme market environments - precisely when conventional investments struggle most. This unique return profile was on full display in 2022 when many managed futures funds gained 20-30% while both stocks and bonds suffered.The democratization of managed futures through ETFs like DBMF, KMLM, and newer offerings from Fidelity and BlackRock has made these institutional-quality strategies accessible to everyday investors at reasonable costs. DBMF, in particular, uses an innovative replication approach to match the performance of the Société Générale CTA Index, functioning somewhat like a Vanguard for the managed futures space.We also discuss why international bond funds make less effective diversifiers than managed futures, share exciting news about the return of Risk Parity Chronicles blog, and review the performance of our eight sample portfolios.Support the show

In this episode we answer two emails from John and one from Pete.  We revel in John's summary of the podcast from its humble beginnings to its current form, his sailboat analogy to portfolio construction and his highly humorous questions.  We also discuss two common but conflicting investor biases: rejecting assets because they've performed poorly recently or because they've performed too well recently and discuss rebalancing rules for leveraged funds and the newer managed futures fund CTA.Links:Listener Blog Post Describing Risk Parity Concepts:  15 Uncorrelated Assets | SSiSPete's Testfolio Rebalancing Analyses:  testfol.io/?s=k6HKskV4lsyTestfolio CTA Analysis:  testfol.io/analysis?s=9WzkwrOUa0hBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:The evolution of Risk Parity Radio takes center stage as we dive into a fascinating listener journey through 445 episodes of financial wisdom and soundbite mayhem. From our humble COVID-project beginnings to developing signature elements like standardized soundbites, cowbell references, and charitable partnerships, this episode offers a rare look at how the podcast has grown alongside its community.A brilliant sailing analogy perfectly captures the essence of risk parity investing: just as skilled sailors can make forward progress in various wind conditions by using the right sails, diversified portfolios can navigate different economic environments by including assets that perform well under specific conditions. This metaphor elegantly explains why we emphasize creating all-weather portfolios rather than attempting to predict market movements.Gold's dramatic turnaround provides a perfect case study in investment humility. In late 2022, some listeners questioned including gold, calling it a "waste of space" that wasn't fulfilling its purpose. Fast forward to 2025, and gold delivered an impressive 28% compound annual growth rate. This example highlights a common cognitive trap: rejecting unfamiliar assets either because they've performed poorly recently ("must be done forever") or because they've performed too well ("must be too high to invest in now").We also explore technical questions about rebalancing strategies for portfolios containing leveraged ETFs and observations about managed futures funds, demonstrating how complex portfolio management requires thoughtful consideration beyond simple formulas.Whether you're a longtime listener appreciating the walk down memory lane or a newcomer curious about our approach to investing, this episode delivers valuable insights about portfolio construction while maintaining our characteristic blend of education and entertainment. Ready to dive deeper? Subscribe now and join our community of thoughtful DIY investors!Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Ian, Bruce and Boone.  We discuss dealing with a 401k with limited options, the limitations of the ticker symbol analyzers of Portfolio Visualizer and incorporating individual stocks into a retirement portfolio, and limitations and developments in leveraged ETF land.Note:  No podcast this upcoming weekend as Frank and Mary will be on hiatus.  Check out Frank's recent interview on the Mile HI FI podcast for more insights and a scintillating discussion about cooked green vegetables.Links:Optimized Portfolio Website:  Leverage | Optimized PortfolioTestfolio Website:  testfol.ioValue Stock Geek Website:  Security Analysis | Value Stock Geek | SubstackMile Hi Fi Podcast:  You Should Spend More (Probably) - Frank Vasquez | MHFI 279 | Mile High FI PodcastBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Frank Vasquez dives into the practical realities of implementing risk parity principles within common investment constraints in this illuminating Q&A session. Drawing on his wealth of experience, Frank tackles three distinct listener questions that reveal the gap between theoretical investment strategies and their real-world application.When confronted with a listener's limited 401k options, Frank demonstrates how to make pragmatic choices while staying true to risk-conscious investing principles. Rather than abandoning risk parity altogether, he suggests practical compromises using available funds for the short term, with plans to transition to a more ideal allocation after retirement. This advice brilliantly showcases how financial independence seekers can adapt sophisticated strategies to work within institutional limitations.The conversation takes a fascinating turn as Frank debunks misleading backtest results from Portfolio Visualizer, explaining why recent market conditions might create dangerously optimistic expectations about individual stock performance. With characteristic humor, he guides listeners away from recency bias and toward sound portfolio construction principles that prioritize asset allocation over security selection.Perhaps most valuably, Frank explores the complex world of leveraged ETFs, demystifying why products like UPRO and TMF rarely achieve their stated multiplication factors over extended periods. His careful analysis of these sophisticated tools, along with newer innovations like return-stacked ETFs, provides crucial perspective for investors considering these instruments for retirement planning.Throughout the episode, Frank balances technical expertise with accessibility, using cultural references and humor to make complex concepts digestible. His commitment to evidence-based investing shines through as he consistently reminds listeners to focus on risk management, broad diversification, and long-term thinking rather than chasing recent performance or market timing.Have questions about implementing risk parity in your own portfolio? Email Frank at [email protected] or visit riskparityradio.com to learn more about building resilient investment strategies that can weather any market environment.Support the show

In this episode we break rules and have guests!  Dennis and Ben from the Father McKenna Center.  We review the fabulous results of the Top of the T-Shirt Campaign and reflect on the generosity engagement of our listeners. Then we answer emails from Jamie, Camille and Jon.  We discuss Jamie's portfolio experiments, bond allocations in a 403b, musing about changes in the reserve currency status of the US Dollar and transitioning issues.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Jamie's Portfolio Analyses:  https://testfol.io/?s=jusQGGadC9PBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:What happens when a finance podcast community rallies around a worthy cause? Something extraordinary. In this special episode, we break our "no guests" rule to welcome Dennis D and Ben Hoffschneider from the Father McKenna Center, where they share the remarkable story behind our recent fundraising campaign.Dennis's journey will stop you in your tracks – from arriving at the center homeless after a 24-hour bus ride from Florida to eventually becoming its Executive Director. His powerful testimony shows how organizations like the McKenna Center transform lives daily. When our listener "Matthew63" stepped forward with a $15,000 matching challenge, none of us expected what would follow.The results left everyone speechless: $60,969.83 raised (yes, down to the penny) from approximately 100 donors across the country. This campaign now represents 4% of the center's annual budget and has become their leading donor source for the fiscal year. As we reflect on Theodore Roosevelt's famous "Man in the Arena" speech, it becomes clear who the true warriors are – those doing the daily work with limited resources to address homelessness and food insecurity.After our interview, we tackle several listener questions about portfolio construction. Jamie wonders about using VXX and SCO as bond replacements, Camille seeks guidance on holding treasury bonds in retirement accounts, and John asks about transitioning from target date funds to a more diversified approach. We close with our weekly portfolio review, noting gold's continued strong performance up 27.83% year-to-date.Want to support the Father McKenna Center's work? Register for their Walk for McKenna on September 27th or follow them on social media to see your donations in action. The t-shirts featuring our logo will be available mid-September – a small reminder of what we can accomplish together.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Thirsty Horse, Graham, Chris, Oberon, Ronald and Mark.  We discuss their personal progress with finances and better relationships, books about that and thriving, treasury bond funds, choosing volunteering and charitable opportunities, and sample portfolio dividends and interest.Campaign update: Top of the T-Shirt fundraiser for Father McKenna Center closing July 31!Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterTestfolio Comparison of VGLT, TYA and GOVZ:  testfol.io/analysis?s=4bAJZXAObDDBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:The journey from wealth accumulation to meaningful spending is perhaps one of the most challenging psychological transitions in personal finance. In this thought-provoking episode, we explore the mental barriers that prevent even financially successful people from fully enjoying their hard-earned freedom.Through several listener stories, we witness the transformative power of risk parity principles not just as investment strategies, but as confidence-building frameworks that empower life changes. One listener shares how implementing these concepts gave them the security to leave a high-paying career for more purposeful work. Another reveals their struggle with "optimization addiction" - postponing experiences like concerts and travel while continuing to accumulate unnecessary wealth.This episode delivers practical wisdom on finding balance between financial security and life enjoyment. We discuss recommended books for navigating the retirement mindset transition, including Bronnie Ware's "Five Regrets of the Dying" and Arthur Brooks' work on finding purpose in life's second half. For those interested in the technical side, we examine treasury bond strategies during recessionary environments, comparing performance across different instruments.Perhaps most valuably, we explore how to select meaningful charitable causes that align with your skills and passions. The Father McKenna Center campaign illustrates how financial independence can create opportunities for impact beyond personal wealth.Ready to shift from obsessing over your portfolio to embracing life's experiences? This episode might just give you the perspective shift you need. Remember: winning the financial game is just the beginning – learning to actually play it is where true fulfillment begins.Support the show

In this episode we celebrate some milestones and answer emails from Amy and John.  We discuss the 10-year anniversary of Portfolio Charts, our one millionth download and Mary's good news about her CASA work.  Then we talk about the parable of the Starfish Thrower, go on requested rant about personal finance hoarding cultures and financially privileged people looking for pats on the head and their willing AUM facilitators, and talk about how real happiness and legacies are created. And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterPortfolio Charts 10-year Anniversary Post:  Celebrating 10 Years of Portfolio Charts – Portfolio ChartsNarrative Psychology:  How to tell stories that give you meaning | Jane Goodall, Terry Crews & Dan McAdamsParable of the Starfish Thrower:  Starfish Story (aka The Star Thrower)ChooseFI Pod #508:  508 | 5% SWR, Revealed Preferences, and the 3 Stories | Frank VasquezBringing Up The Baileys:  Melissa Bailey (@bringingupthebaileys_) • Instagram photos and videosCome And Get It:  Comeandgetit | FacebookBreathless AI-Bot Summary:What does it mean to create a meaningful legacy? Is it the money you leave behind, or something far more valuable that transcends financial wealth?As we celebrate our millionth podcast download and the 10th anniversary of Portfolio Charts—a revolutionary tool that transformed how DIY investors analyze diverse assets—we're reflecting on what truly matters in personal finance and beyond. The real highlight comes from Mary's work as a Court Appointed Special Advocate, where after three years of dedicated advocacy for five children in foster care, four were adopted into the same loving home. This embodiment of the "Starfish Thrower" parable reminds us that while we can't save everyone, making a difference for even one person creates ripples of meaningful change.We take a hard look at the wealth inequality permeating financial media, where those with millions often dominate conversations while seeking validation for their already-secure positions. This echo chamber creates distorted priorities and revealed preferences toward death-focused wealth accumulation rather than life-focused enjoyment. In contrast, we share the story of Melissa—a woman who overcome tremendous hardships including foster care and the loss of a child, yet leads a joy-filled life despite financial constraints. Her legacy isn't measured in money but in traditions passed between generations while everyone is still alive.Our portfolio reviews show mostly positive performance across various investment strategies, but the numbers pale in comparison to the real message: wealth isn't just what you have, but what you do with it. Whether you're struggling financially or blessed with abundance, your impact on others will always be your most valuable asset.Join us as we explore what it means to live richly—not just by accumulating wealth, but by creating meaning. How will you throw your starfish today?Support the show