150. The new Valuation of Wind Assets

As COP29 begins, the ripple effects of the re-election of Donald Trump are reaching the shores of the Caspian Sea.  COP28 welcomed 85,000 delegates, within which a significant contingent of Oil lobbyists. COP29 is supposed to be the “Finance COP”, whatever that means, but all major head of states will not participate.What to expect from COP29?   Are COP still useful? Is it the correct format? Who is really committed and who is just paying lip service to fighting Climate Change?  Those questions and more with Lord Turner, chair of the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) a global coalition of companies committed to achieving a net zero global economy by 2050. Lord Turner is a leading British businessman and academic, former Chairman of the Financial Services Authority (2008-13). From 2008-2012 Lord Turner was the first chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee.

First, Gerard is sorry, he couldn’t make it as he was on a ship in the Irish Sea, and his Starlink wouldn’t connect. So, it is just Laurent interviewing a young superstar, Peter Paul van Voorst, CEO of the mobile battery management platform Skoon.Skoon, based in Rotterdam, is now seven years old and manages more than 1,000 mobile batteries in 14 countries. Mobile batteries range from 1kw to 1MW and are either on trailers or inside 10ft containers.With Peter Paul, Laurent analyses this new segment of the Storage market. How did the technology evolve, what are the established use-cases (Construction, Film sets, Events) but also the new ones (Support to distribution networks).In recent years, not only has the hardware evolved (widespread use of LFP), but there has been an absolute revolution in the software layers, from BMS (Battery Management System) to EMS (Energy Management System) to now the overall fleet management. Those progresses are not only from a technical perspective but also from an economic and environmental perspectives.How this whole system works, grows and provide immense services to the Electrification of the Economy by providing the ultimate flexibility (time and space).

Gerard and Laurent welcome Kristian Ruby, secretary general of Eurelectric, about their new report entitled “Power Barometer – Zeroing in on Electrification”.  To quote the IEA, we enter in the “Age of Electrification” where electrification rate is going to accelerate significantly.We have an extensive conversation about the good news (growth of renewables, energy security progress in response to Russian aggression) and the not so good news (flat demand, as the new power usages – transportation, heating – don’t grow as fast as anticipated; demand reduction or destruction). We discuss the impact of counterproductive taxation of various sources of energy, European competitiveness, the development of behind the meter energy as well as great initiatives such as the North Sea Wind Power Hub”.A very rich state of play.And Gerard apologises for the poor quality of his audio as he was in car driving in France while carrying his precious collection of rare whiskies from Berlin to Dublin.  Link to Eurelectric report: Power Barometer – Zeroing inhttps://powerbarometer.eurelectric.org/  Join us at the Energy Storage Awards 2024https://storageawards.solarenergyevents.com/

What are VPP? Virtual Power Plants. What are DER? Distributed Energy Resources?As the grid becomes more intermittent while the load is growing, those VPP/DER platforms provide a critical role by shedding demand, sometimes for a few minutes, to alleviate stress on the Grids.VPPs can avoid starting polluting peakers via pre-agreed and targeted demand reduction, shift consumption via batteries and even act in in Frequency response market. And System Operators are willing to pay a decent price to have access to those resources.That is the mission of Dana Guernsey. Dana is the CEO of Voltus, a Boulder-CO based leading DER technology platform and virtual power plant operator connecting distributed energy resources to electricity markets. As interconnection queues lengthen and capacity cost explode, are we on the dawn of a crazy development of VPPs.Dana explains that while working for Walmart or fleet of Electric School buses, she can reduce Voltus’ clients power bills by up to 20% while keeping their core services unchanged. We are going to talk about technology, heating and cooling management, AI… and lasagna.A deep dive into the future.--------------------------------------------------------------VERY IMPORTANT: We are doing a Q&A Episode in NovemberAsk us whatever you want!!!  Send your questions: [email protected]

While Gerard is doing his rock star concert at TedTalk Berlin, Laurent has invited an old friend, Roger Atkins, Top Voice on EVs to discuss the people behind the EV revolution.  Roger has a 40 year career in the Auto industry (half of them in EVs) and his cowboy hat makes him a fixture of great EV shows around the world. Roger talk about his encounters with Robin Zeng -  CEO CATL, Wang Chuanfu – founder BYD, Elon Musk, Jack Cheng - co-founder NIO, Bob Galyen – ex GM and CTO CATL,  Li Shufu – founder Geely and a lot of other formidable people pushing the EV revolution.We also talk about the people we admire Michael Dunne, Robert Llewellyn and Simon Moores. Thanks to them, we see clearer.  And in EVs as in any sector, culture eats policy every morning for breakfast.--------------------------------------------------------------VERY IMPORTANT: We are doing a Q&A Episode in NovemberAsk us whatever you want!!!  Send your questions: [email protected]

The battery infrastructure is currently growing 3x faster than the solar industry. Records are beaten daily: in August 2024, for the first time, Chinese battery factories passed the 100GWh production mark. We are seeing industry giants consolidate their leadership while hopes of alternative technologies or promising start ups are being squashed.The prices are collapsing monthly, partly due to cheaper inputs, technological improvements and larger volumes, not dissimilar to what happened in recent years to the solar industry. Is LFP the winning chemistry or is there still a future for NMC?Laurent and Gerard bring Dr Engelke, Chair of Battery Associates, to try to make sense of it all. This young German company has been developing a world class expertise and how uses it to train the future work force is how to build a Gigafactory and how to optimize it. With clients like Tesla, VW and CATL, Battery Associates is in the thick of it. GenZ is defying all politicians by creating a transnational spirit of collaboration between Continents to promote a faster and more efficient future.Because in the end, it is all about Human Capital. China has benefited from our technology for decades, let’s not be shy and emulate their playbook. It will be more efficient in the long term than lobbying regulators, whine and ask for tariffs and subsidies. Despite the roller coaster, never forget that in a fast-growing market, short term demand is generally overstated, while long term demand is generally understated.  -----We don’t often recommend other podcasts/YouTube (I know we should). If you are interested in Batteries, please listen/view this interview of Robin Zheng, CEO of CATL.Really fascinating https://youtu.be/5VIXjjw4u9A?si=enaf8fls2F82YxoXhttps://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/catl-ceo-founder-robin-zeng-the-journey-to-market/id1614211565?i=1000669887553

Gerard is live on the Wisdom Tree Commodity Exchange podcast and delivers a masterclass on how to invest in the Energy Transition: Renewables, Equity, Innovation, Commodities.  -----Laurent will be keynote speaker at ReSource Amsterdam 24-25/10/24. Come say hello https://resource-platform.eu/events/re-source-2024-event/  -----  We also salute the latest edition of Mycle Schneider World Nuclear Industry Status Report. Essential to understand what is going on in the Nuclear Industry beyond the headlines and the lobbying – More than 500 pages of data and facts.https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/World-Nuclear-Industry-Status-Report-2024

ExxonMobil forecasts 2050 Oil demand be the same as today. We believe that they are just “talking their books.”To discuss the future of the Energy system as well as the fight against Climate Change, we bring in a very respected expert and friend of the show: Kingsmill Bond, Energy Strategist at RMI. Kingsmill has been digging deep into the data and has realized that the fossil fuel cohort simply cannot fathom the speed of the Energy Transition.Gerard and Laurent have a lengthy debate about the trends, the adoption of clean energy, not only in the OECD, but also what is now referred as the “Global South” and deliver an optimist message about the future.  In the present, the pessimists always sound smarter, but in the long-term optimists are always right.------- RMI is a global NGO transforming the global energy system to secure a clean, prosperous, zero-carbon future for all.RMI:  https://rmi.org/the-world-re-energized/RMI report: https://rmi.org/insight/the-cleantech-revolution/Nick Eyre work: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12053-021-09982-9?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

As Europe has reached 270GW wind power (vs 150GW USA), corresponding to a value of 500bnEUR, we dig into the value of those assets. Gerard being out, Laurent brought his friend Mortimer Menzel, Managing Partner of Augusta Co, one of the most seasoned investment bankers in the wind sector.After describing the past gloom (interest rates, inflation, supply chain, Ukraine), we analyse the fundamentals of the market and turn out to be very optimistic for the years ahead, both onshore and offshore.  Mortimer talentedly explains how the risks and markets have evolved over time and what impact they will have on future valuations. Overall, he is bullish as ever.  -------------------- I will be chairing a free Seminar on the future of Green Energy procurement with Ofgem, KPMG, S&P Global and Renewabl, the award-winning platform I seat on the Board of, at the law firm Wedlake Bell, on Thursday 3/10 at 4pm. In the City of London. Super technical.Link to Register.   Renewabl day: The future of renewable energy procurement · Luma

As wind and solar become ubiquitous, the value of hydropower goes up. Hydropower is becoming the ultimate clean energy, as it is flexible and easily dispatchable.Hydropower is concentrated in certain geographies (China, Brazil, Canada) and is almost entirely developed by State-Owned Utilities that can stomach and support the very long construction time. Bost costs and value should be measured in decades, not in years.Unfortunately, Climate Change is impacting the reliability of hydro; we have recently witnessed  a succession of dry years and wet years, which have created stresses in the American West, Brazil and China… So, how to make the best of it? How to optimize this valuable resource?That is the life’s mission of Janice Goodenough, CEO of HYDROGRID. With a master’s degree in Applied Mathematics and over 15 years of experience in the hydropower sector, Janice Goodenough is a dedicated advocate for leveraging the complete potential of hydropower amidst the evolving energy landscape. HYDROGRID Insight is an integrated water management & production planning platform for proactive hydro teams, providing comprehensive, predictive capabilities such as plant monitoring, predictive production planning, optimal trading, as well as constraint and maintenance management under a single hood.We love hydro, but they need to stop snoozing. Wake up!  We thank AMUNDI for supporting the show Transcripts   https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008