US Market Open: Oil surges as Gulf producers cut output; Yields climb sparking hawkish re-pricing

US has issued a new Russia-related general license permitting the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of March 12.ByteDance reportedly plans to tap NVIDIA (NVDA) Blackwell processors that are barred for export to China, with the Co. working with Aolani Cloud on plans to use some 500 Blackwell computing systems in Malaysia, according to WSJ.European equities soften, BESI NA surges on takeover rumours; US equity futures muted ahead of PCE, GDP.DXY extends above the 100 handle, GBP slips post-GDP.Fixed income choppy and energy prices and risk tone continue to dictate price action.Brent hovers around USD 100/bbl and metals dragged by a firmer dollar. Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Jobs Report (Feb), US Core PCE Price Index (Jan), Durable Goods Orders (Jan), Personal Spending (Jan), JOLTS (Jan), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Mar), Atlanta Fed GDP. Rating updates include Scope Ratings on UK & Spain, S&P on Spain, Moody's on Greece & Germany, Fitch on Spain & Italy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued, with the region cautious amid headwinds from the recent double-digit surge in oil prices.US officials noted they said from the start the war would last 4-5 weeks and may end in 2 weeks, with the decision up to Trump.US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Sky News an international coalition could protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz.USTR announced to initiate 60 Section 301 investigations related to failures to act on forced labour.European equity futures indicate a mildly higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.8% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Prices (Feb), UK Trade Balance (Jan), GDP (Jan), French/Spanish HICP Final (Feb), Canadian Jobs Report (Feb), US Core PCE Price Index (Jan), Durable Goods Orders (Jan), Personal Spending (Jan), JOLTS (Jan), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Mar), Atlanta Fed GDP. Rating updates include Scope Ratings on UK & Spain, S&P on Spain, Moody's on Greece & Germany, Fitch on Spain & Italy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

IEA OMR cut its 2026 global oil supply growth forecast by nearly half, stating the Middle East conflict as the largest oil supply disruption ever. USTR Greer said the US is initiating a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners, including China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, India and Japan, which could lead to responsive actions, including tariffs.European equities hit as Iran conflict continues, while Defence names benefit; Oil prices continue to weigh on US equities.DXY continues to benefit from geopols, JPY bucks the G10 trend and holds onto gains.Fixed income initially softer but coming off worst levels. Crude wanes off best levels after Brent briefly topped above USD 100/bbl, reports suggest that India is in discussions with Iran to secure passage for 20 tankers through Hormuz.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Trade Balance (Jan), US Trade Balance (Jan), Initial Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Atlanta Fed GDP and CBRT Policy Announcement. Speakers include Fed's Bowman. Supply from the US, Earnings from Adobe.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined as rising oil prices dampened sentiment and stoked inflationary concerns, while the announcement of a record joint emergency reserves release failed to drag energy prices lower, due to likely slow deliveries and with further disruptions in the Middle East from the ongoing hostilities.US President Trump said they knocked out Iran's navy and mine layers, and stated that they won't leave Iran early.The FBI warned police departments in California that Iran wants to retaliate by launching drones against the West Coast.Crude futures rallied some 7% despite the IEA announcement of a record 400mln-barrel emergency joint release, as the action could be seen as a mere band-aid on the supply shock.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.9% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.7% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF Final (Feb), Canadian Trade Balance (Jan), US Trade Balance (Jan), Initial Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Atlanta Fed GDP, IEA OMR, and CBRT Policy Announcement. Speakers include BoE's Bailey & Fed's Bowman. Supply from Italy, UK & US, Earnings from Adobe.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The IEA has proposed the largest ever release of oil from its strategic reserves, with Bloomberg reporting around 300-400mln barrels to be released. Separate reporting stated that the volume in the first month of the release of oil reserves would exceed 100mln barrels. Crude rises as geopolitics show no real signs of abating; copper falls as sentiment deteriorates.European equities entirely in the red, Rheinmetall disappoints despite increased need for defence; US equity futures continue to consolidate.DXY flat heading into CPI, AUD outperforms as more banks forecast a hike next week.Hawkish ECB speak drives EGBs lower; packed UK agenda ahead.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Feb), OPEC MOMR, IEA recommendation, G7 call. Speakers include ECB's Schnabel & Fed's Bowman, Supply from Germany & the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher as the recent easing of oil prices helped the region shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall Street and reports of Iran beginning to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz.US intelligence began to see indications that Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, according to CBS.US Energy Secretary Wright posted that the US Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, although this post was later deleted, and a White House official clarified that this wasn't true.UKMTO received a report that a cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, which has resulted in a fire on board, while the crew are evacuating the vessel.The IEA meeting on Tuesday ended with no decision on a crude stockpile release; WSJ reported that the IEA proposed the largest ever release of oil from strategic reserves (no figures mentioned), with countries to decide today on whether to release oil stocks.Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP Final (Feb), US CPI (Feb), OPEC MOMR. Speakers include ECB's de Guindos & Schnabel, BoE's Breeden & Fed's Bowman, Supply from Germany & the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said it's going to be ended soon, and if it starts up again, Iran will be hit harder, while he responded 'no, but soon', when asked if the war will be done this week.On the passage of oil, US President Trump said they will hit Iran harder if it attempts to stop world oil supply, while adding the Strait of Hormuz will be safe and getting close to finishing it regarding 'excursion'.Oil steadies after Monday's selloff after Trump signalled the Iranian war will end soon.European equities bounce out of correction territory, with Banks benefiting the most from the positive risk tone; US equity futures continue its reversal.Aussie outperforms on hawkish RBA rhetoric and Chinese trade data, DXY takes a breather after yesterday’s slide.Fixed income firmer as Monday's hawkish repricing unwinds.Looking ahead, highlights include US Weekly ADP, Existing Home Sales (Feb), G7 Energy Minister Meeting, EIA STEO, Supply from the US, Earnings from Oracle.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US trade saw a late boost to sentiment after US President Trump said the war could be over soon and that he thinks the war is very complete, pretty much as Iran has no navy, no communications, and have no air force, while he added that the US is “very far” ahead of his initial 4-5 week estimated time frame."Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they will not allow a single litre of oil to be exported from the region if the US and Israeli attacks continue, while it added that they will determine how and when the war ends, and stated that US President Trump's comments about Iran were nonsense.APAC stocks rose with global risk sentiment underpinned after oil price pressures eased on a potential G7 joint release of emergency reserves, and with relief seen after US President Trump said the war in Iran could end very soon.European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.6% on Monday.Crude futures declined and have completely retraced this week's opening surge, with pressure seen as the G7 mulls the release of emergency oil reserves, while further downside was seen after US President Trump suggested that the Iranian conflict is nearing an end.Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian CPI (Feb), German/French Trade Balance (Jan), US NFIB (Feb), Weekly ADP, Existing Home Sales (Feb), EIA STEO, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from Oracle.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Energy surges (Brent +12%) as key oil producers cut output.European bourses entirely in the red as higher energy prices weigh on broader sentiment; US equity futures follow suit. DXY bid on haven flows, EUR eyes the G7 ministers meeting on energy for reprieve.Global bond yields climb as energy benchmarks soar, sparking a hawkish move in central bank pricing.Precious metals weighed on by dollar strength. Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed SCE, Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence (Mar), & Japanese GDP Final (Q4), G7 meeting on emergency oil reserves. Speakers include ECB's Elderson & Cipollone.US clocks moved forward an hour over the weekend to Daylight Saving Time, with the London-NY time difference at 4 hours.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks sold off heavily with global markets rattled after the Iran war entered a second week with no signs of abating; US equity futures extended on their post-NFP declines.Oil prices surged some 30% at one point to just shy of USD 120/bbl as the continued Iran conflict forces producers to begin cutting output.Crude futures pulled back following FT reports that the G7 is to discuss a joint release of emergency oil reserves in an emergency meeting on Monday.European equity futures indicate a much lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 2.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.1% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production (Jan), US NY Fed SCE, Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence (Mar), & Japanese GDP Final (Q4). Speakers include ECB's Elderson & Cipollone.US clocks moved forward an hour over the weekend to Daylight Saving Time, with the London-NY time difference at 4 hours.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk