Perspecticast ep.15

Good evening, not too bee to cavalier about it, but $NVDA has opened up a can of worms by being “really overvalued” and then goin on to 10x from there in fairly short order. This sort of things ruins people and their investing approachers. As a certified Vaule Respector, I do feel somewhat like a fish out of water, but investing in AI and anything to do with it demands a growth mindset. So here it goes. I proceed to explain why there’s a chance for these things, despite trading at up to 1800x earnings today go on to 10x in the next few years. Do check out the articles below. They are behind a paywall, so do consider signing up if you are interested. Similarly if you are interested in having a more detailed conversation along the lines of the pod or indeed anything else in China and Asia, do reach out. Join the Founder tier to start, or browse the full advisory menu. Drop us an email with “Upgrade” in the subject line, and we’ll book your intro call within 24 hours.Nothing in this Substack is Investment Advice. This information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Any examples used are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect actual recommendations. Please consult a licensed financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. The authors, publishers, and affiliates of this content do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of the information and are not responsible for any losses, damages, or actions taken based on this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, Wanted to address the East vs West and some other narratives that seem obvious but maybe aren’t in the semiconductor space. This discussion builds on the 3 articles published in this review so far:* East vs West, where the key battle lines are drawn* China’s Policy review: what the government is doing to spur domestic semiconductor sector growth. (Free Article) * The Equipment Revolution: the race in all parts of the tool making value chainAs with all the other pieces in the series, this is series, it’s paywalled, Do upgrade/join up if you’re interested, we’d love to have you!Turn context into conviction with Panda Perspectives+:You already read the Substack for big-picture clarity.Panda Perspectives+ adds the action layer live, personalised and ready when you are.Advisory toolbox* 1-on-1 strategy sessionsDirect time with our senior China-Asia analysts—for CIOs, PMs, analysts or founders who need to stress-test a thesis before capital moves.* Custom deep-dive researchFrom a 40-page teardown of BYD’s SiC supply chain to a same-week model on Shanghai micro-fabs delivered to your brief and timeline.* Live Q&A briefings for teams and ICsInteractive calls (slides + recording included) that arm the entire desk with up-to-the-minute intelligence.* Panda Hand-Hold conciergeA dedicated analyst on speed-dial for emerging and private investors, quarterly portfolio health checks to iron out A-share quirks and FX traps, plus 30-minute mini-masterclasses that decode SAFE rules, cross-border custody and dual-currency settles.Active mandates on our desk* China’s evolving consumer-spend mix* 3Q25 macro trajectory & policy inflection points* Factory automation and the robotics super-cycle* Breakthroughs in Chinese healthcare* Latest EV-market shake-ups and winnersReady to sharpen your edge? Join in to the Founder tier for the intro service or browse the full advisory menu, or email us with “Upgrade”in the subject line and we’ll book your intro call within 24 hours.Nothing in this Substack is Investment Advice. This information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Any examples used are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect actual recommendations. Please consult a licensed financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. The authors, publishers, and affiliates of this content do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of the information and are not responsible for any losses, damages, or actions taken based on this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good evening, here’s the rough breakdown of whats to come: Total Companies in Coverage: 90Pure Semiconductor Companies: 68 (75.5%)Coverage by Article:Article 1 & 2: Macro overview of the space and policy Article 3 (Equipment): 6 companies in focusArticle 4 (Foundries): 6 companiesArticle 5 (Memory): 8 companiesArticle 6 (AI): 4 companiesArticle 7 (Power/Auto): 7 companiesArticle 8 (Mobile): 9 companiesArticle 9 (Analog): 4 companiesArticle 10 (Connectivity): 6 companiesArticle 11 (Assembly): 4 companiesArticle 12 (Design/IP): 8 companiesArticle 13 (Future Tech): 4 companiesArticle 14 (Ranking): all 90 companiesJoin up if you want to join us on this journey. Have a great day, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Morning,Please do check out our note on EVs available here: I make reference to this data on the costs of EVs vs ICE (imperfect, but it gives a ballpark). New Li i8:have a good one,Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, I was on the ground at the SMM Asia Metals Seminar in Hong Kong today. Excellent content: deep dives, hard data, and no tourist-level macro. In this short episode, I run through key takeaways from the industrial and new energy metals sessions metal by metal, but first, do consider subscribing to the substack for much more of this. Copper* Global supply growth is flat: top producers (BHP, Codelco, Freeport) have shown zero structural output growth since 2020* Models show upside to >$10,000/ton with base case at ~$9,800* Inventories in China and Europe at multi-year lows, * Long-term capex shortfall of US$150 billion to meet 2035 demand📈 Verdict: Strong long. Best setup in the market.Zinc* Refined market tight through 2025, but surplus expected by 2026* TCs rising; mine supply returning* Chinese refined output up +5.2% YoY, demand growth slowing🧭 Verdict: Tactical only. Fade the strength post-2025.Tin* Global supply thin, highly concentrated (Indonesia, Myanmar)* Inventories low: * Demand anchored in semiconductors, solar, and industrial electronics💡 Verdict: Optionality. Small market, big moves.Nickel* Indonesia to produce >50% of global supply by 2026* LME + SHFE inventory rising; matte and sulphate margins deeply negative* NPI-to-refined conversion loss: ~$900–1,000/t at current tolling fees📉 Verdict: Structurally bearish. Narrative still lags reality.Cobalt* DRC still supplies 98–99% of China’s cobalt imports* ARECOMS export ban triggered +89% spike in Co₃O₄ over 40 days* But global supply rising: expected to grow from 309 kt (2024) to 390 kt (2030E)⚠️ Verdict: Geopolitical squeeze short-term; surplus long-term.Lithium* China carbonate surplus: 5–9 kt/month expected through H1 2026* Inventories elevated: 130,000+ tons in storage across chain* LFP chemistry dominates; NCM market share declining steadily* Cost curve: only Australian spodumene and Chilean brine consistently profitable🪫 Verdict: Still oversupplied. Interesting only at the cost curve bottom.Have a good day, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Date: Thursday, 15 May 2025Episode Summary:This week’s episode comes to you fresh from a packed week of company meetings, investor discussions, and on-site visits across Asia, capped off by an excellent Macquarie-hosted conference. Leonid reflects on what he saw and heard, and how it informs the evolving Panda Portfolio positioning.Key Takeaways:* 🏢 On the Ground in Asia:A long but rewarding week attending site visits and investor meetings across the region. Don’t miss our latest Property Management deep-dive published this Monday for a detailed write-up of the sector.* 🇨🇳 China: Automation and Consumption Themes on Display:Two core theses came alive during the trip:* Robotics & Automation are “humming along” with visible signs of industrial intensity.* Consumption is gaining momentum, underpinned by impressive and well-run consumer-facing businesses. A reminder to revisit the retail/restaurant chain thesis in more detail soon.* 📈 CATL Hong Kong IPO:The $5bn listing was over 30x oversubscribed — a clear sign of investor appetite. Expect a shift into CATL in the Panda Portfolio this Friday.* 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Quietly Compelling:The country continues to present interesting opportunities and warrants a dedicated write-up, likely in June.* 🇮🇳 India Panel Takeaways:Despite attending a thoughtful panel on India, the valuation concerns remain front and center. The growth story is appealing, but we’re holding off for now.* 🏅 Conference Shout-Out:Big thanks to Macquarie for hosting — fantastic venue, high-quality access to corporates, and great conversations throughout.📌 Mentioned Content:* China Property Management Sector Deep Dive – May 2025 (link to the Substack article)Hope you enjoy it, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, As mentioned on the pod, please sign up to get the full piece on China property coming out tomorrow. Also do check out the China Daily Opinion Piece we published this Morning. Click here. This week we’re focusing on theProperty space, while next week we’re following up with a review of Property Management sector and HK Conglomerates and Developers review. Have a great Week, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, Do check out the macro notes form last week: China Macro Snapshot after 1Q25: The difficult transition, the reasons for hope.China Property: From Collapse to Calm?: A deep look at how the sector is stabilizing — and what it still lacks.Chinese Consumption 2025: Cooling spending, persistent strength, and where the real opportunities may lie.AS announced on the pod we’re moving in to Property, the entire series will be paywalled, so do please join up if you’re interested. Serious about Asia investing? Your process needs more Panda. For those looking for personalised support — whether it’s China consumer, 2Q25 market strategy, or robotics and industrials — we’re also offering advisory calls. Learn more here or message us directly to book a time.Reminder: Nothing in this Substack is investment advice. This content is for informational purposes only. Please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.🐼 Panda Takeaways – What Chinese Brokers vs US Banks See in China’s April Politburo Meeting🛡️ Bottom-line thinking is back — and bipartisanBoth camps agree: China is preparing for more turbulence, especially from Trump’s tariff volleys. “Prepare for the worst” is now official doctrine, with the policy arsenal ready to fire if needed.🏗️ Fiscal: fast-forward, not firehoseChinese brokers expect a Q2 surge in local government bond issuance, with a focus on tangible projects like equipment upgrades, trade-in subsidies, and urban resettlement.US banks agree on front-loading but warn that without stronger demand-side stimulus, the impact may underwhelm.💰 Monetary easing: timing vs targetingConsensus holds that RRR and rate cuts are coming.Chinese brokers highlight new structural tools — relending for services, elderly care, and tech — as a sign of targeted support.US banks see easing too, but frame it as reactive, expecting stronger signals only after weak Q2 data.🛍️ Consumption: the macro swing factorBoth sides spotlight efforts to boost household spending, especially in services. Subsidies, financial tools, and income support are on the way.Chinese brokers go further — seeing this as a pivot in market leadership, with sectors like catering, internet, and alcohol poised to benefit.US banks see it more as a policy checkbox than a market catalyst (for now).🏘️ Property: from ‘just enough’ to ‘good enough’Chinese brokers emphasize a shift to high-quality housing, speeding up monetized resettlement in urban villages, and buying up unsold homes.US banks are more cautious — they see the same tools being recycled with limited impact unless demand improves organically.🔄 Exports: redirect, finance, surviveAgreement here: tariff-hit exporters will get financing support, redirected to domestic markets, and benefit from harmonized standards.Chinese brokers see scope for structural change and SME resilience; US banks are skeptical these offset global demand loss.🔧 Reform: still grinding, still relevantChinese brokers highlight continued reforms: building a unified national market, regulating fair competition, and opening services.US banks downplay this — reform is background music, not the main theme.Have a great week, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, The Macro Week kicks off with this Podcast. As discussed on it - do expect the first article to hit your inbox shortly after this. As ever happy to hear any and all feedback!Have a great day, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Afternoon, to freshen things up we’re coming to you form the Peace Hall in Halifax, West Yorkshire. Hope you enjoy the change of Scenery! 🐣 Easter Special! 🐣Now’s the time to go full Panda—get 20% off ALL Panda Perspectives subscription levels, forever.No code needed. No gimmicks. Just lasting insight at a lower price.Offer ends April 21, so hop to it:👉 https://leonidmironov.substack.com/97a754ebHave aGreat week ahead! Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe