Weekly Roundup 02/20/26 (CFTC claims Prediction Markets, rogue AI agents, ETH's existential crisis) (EP.703)

Matt and Nic are back with another week of news and deals. In this episode:  Crypto VC funds have some dry powder CFTC chair Mike Selig asserts jurisdiction over prediction markets relative to the States Is Kalshi more reliable than interest rate futures? The CLARITY Act inches closer to passing Shake up at Gemini OpenClaw agents are going to start phishing crypto users Bitwise aims to launch prediction market ETFs Bridge gets their OCC charter Hyperliquid launches a lobbying arm DAT hangover continues Blockfills reveals a $75m hole Ethereum is having an identity crisis Base is moving away from Optimism Neel Kashkari's bad faith stablecoin criticism

Wyatt sits down with Raj Parekh, Head of Stablecoins and Payments at Monad. In this episode: Will enterprises build out their own stablecoin solutions? Will card payments continue to grow, or be challenged by other forms of payments? What is the role of governments in driving whether stablecoin adoption will continue, accelerate, or decelerate? How does Monad work with leading financial organizations? Where do you see opportunity for novel tech solutions around stablecoins? Will there be many stablecoins or a smaller number of stablecoins at scale? Will companies run their own corporate chains? How should companies look at embedding stablecoins in their workflows from scratch?

Matt and Nic are back with another week of news and deals. In this episode:  Matt reflects on the Patriots season We review the Superbowl Ads Looking forward to the OpenAI wearable Is "something big happening" in AI? Does crypto accelerate the rise of malicious AI? Are all communications networks going to break down in 90 days? SBF wants a new trial Blackrock adds BUIDL to Uniswap Blockfills suspends withdrawals Robinhood is internalizing their prediction market product The stablecoin yield issue in Clarity is still a problem Fairshake is getting active in the midterms Is Chris Dixon right about Web3? We review winter olympic sports Content mentioned: Chris Dixon, The long game for crypto

Wyatt sits down with Bhavin, co-founder of Birch Hill to chat about the tokenized asset and DeFi market broadly. In this episode: Who is assessing whether cryptoassets are safe in DeFi today? Who is assessing risk and ensuring assets are solvent and not fraudulent? How have these standards been set and how are they evolving? What is a risk curator, how do risk curators make money, and what is their role? Is it the responsibility of protocols, curators, wallets, or someone else to protect users from buying bad assets? How do you expect non-DeFi-native market participants will start to enter this market? Will users eventually buy, hold, and sell assets on protocol interfaces, brokerages / exchanges, or risk curator interfaces? Does the Fat Protocol Thesis hold true? Where does value accrue today?

Matt and Nic are back with another week of news and deals. In this episode:  Bitcoin grapples with the fallout of the Epstein Emails Did Jeffrey Epstein influence Bitcoin development? Is Bhutan selling their Bitcoin? Do Bitcoin devs care about quantum? Is Bitcoin Core under the influence with sophons Kyle Samani steps back from Multicoin What Samani's departure means for crypto Is web3 dead forever? Vitalik starts second-guessing the L2-centric roadmap Tether is trading at a slight discount Content mentioned in this episode: Nic on Substack, Bitcoin developers are mostly not concerned about quantum risk  

Matt and Nic are back with another week of news and deals. In this episode:  Matt is heated about the Belichick HoF vote Fidelity launches a stablecoin FIDD on Ethereum Market structure passes Senate Ag Cmte The White House crypto council is being revived to find a compromise on stablecoin yield Fairshake has another war chest for the midterms Do stablecoins cause bank deposit contraction? Tether has 140 tons of gold now Why is Bitcoin not participating in the "debasement" trade? Is gold at risk from alchemy? People are still worried about quantum Will Worldcoin save us from AI bots? What's the solution to the AI slop apocalypse? Digital alibis with blockchains Content mentioned in this episode: Niall Ferguson and Manny Rincon-Cruz, Stablecoins Are the Future but Banks will Survive McKinsey and Artemis, Stablecoins in payments: What the raw transaction numbers miss

Nic and Matt are back for another week of news and deals. In this episode:  There's a big storm coming Matt's playoff picks Farcaster sells to Neynar Is this the nail in the coffin for Web3Social? Where Farcaster went wrong BitGo goes public NYSE is building a tokenized security trading platform Are we looping back around to enterprise blockchains? A MA judge has issued an injunction against Kalshi Jeffries drops Bitcoin from its model portfolio over quantum risk Coinbase launches an advisory board on quantum Trump sues JPM for debanking him Does the Central Bank of Iran really control $500m worth of USDT? What's next for Caroline Ellison?  

Matt and Nic are back after a week off. In this episode: The Clarity market structure bill markup is delayed for now Coinbase backs out of supporting Clarity The bank lobby is trying to torpedo Clarity Kontigo is accused of ignoring sanctions X changes its API to block InfoFi California's wealth tax has backfired already BitMine invests $200m into Mr Beast's company Why tokenized deposits aren't as interesting as stablecoins Content mentioned in this episode: Jason Mikula, Kontigo: Y Combinator's Venezuelan Sanctions Evasion Startup

Wyatt, Henry, and Jake recently put out a report called "Total Value Lost", exploring how best to assess the value of various DeFi markets - starting with lending markets. This episode is a continuation of that conversation, exploring what carries value in DeFi going forward, particularly on the back of a shaky market period. This discussion covers: Where does the recent, ongoing market selloff leave us? What metrics matter for onchain markets? What market dynamics contributed to the October 10 washout? How does leverage manifest in onchain markets, and what does it look like today? How do you assess the value of illiquid cryptoassets? What drives revenue multiples. Which protocols will benefit from the tokenization of other asset classes, and which will struggle? How do the individual behaviors and incentives of investment funds contribute to crypto market volatility?

Matt and Nic are back for the first OTB show of 2026. In this episode: Matt's ice rink adventures The House issues a draft of the PARITY Act The trouble with wealth taxes DATs continue to bleed out We talk about Nic's fiction story Predictions for 2026 Is there a secret exchange insolvency? What constitutes insider trading for prediction markets?  Is the four year cycle finally over?  Is it time to try socialfi again?  Kickstarter snafus Content mentioned in this episode: Nic Carter, Trillion Dollar Salvage