FSD: The Show Goes On

Meta is building a prediction market app to take on Polymarket and Kalshi, and Ram reads it as another late, fast-follow move, like Libra and the Metaverse. He then looks at how Claude moving into Slack hits AI wrappers like Viktor, and why companies in regulated spaces are better protected.Most of the drive is on NVIDIA's leadership turmoil. Ram argues that putting the CFO in the CEO seat was the wrong call, that the head of the data center business was the logical pick, and what a candidate like Arm's CEO would bring. He weighs what a new leader means for the credit support agreements Jensen used to build out the neoclouds, and how Broadcom was pulled into the same financing race.He also covers why market cycles overshoot, the irony of Chinese open-weight models now helping American AI startups, why he doesn't expect much enforcement from the DOJ, and the recent rally in tech stocks.Chapters(00:00) Meta's prediction market app(01:04) Claude takes on Viktor in Slack(02:24) AI wrappers and the moat question(03:30) The NVIDIA drama(04:15) Why the CFO was the wrong pick for CEO(05:26) Anthropic's hands-on CFO(07:13) Could Arm's CEO run NVIDIA?(08:17) Stories about Jensen and succession(09:37) Why the data center chief was passed over(10:51) NVIDIA's board(11:18) Revenue booked and the China question(12:27) Credit support agreements and seller financing(14:16) Is the capital investment productive?(14:41) Broadcom, leverage and market cycles(17:18) How China's open-weight models helped American AI(20:25) Will there be enforcement action?(22:55) The tech rally and the midtermsLumida Wealth Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and does not indicate a particular level of skill or ability.References to companies, industry themes, market statistics, prior investment activity, or case studies are included for context and should not be construed as a recommendation or endorsement.Prospective investors should conduct their own diligence and consult their own legal, tax, and financial advisers as appropriate. Connect with Us Online:Lumida NewsLumida DealsLumida WealthLumida ETF Watch the video on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Lumida_Wealth🌐 Website: https://www.lumidawealth.com🐦 Twitter Follow us on https://twitter.com/LumidaWealth🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealth📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealth 

Ram asks Grok what X is saying about Anthropic and Jensen Huang, and hears a long list of claims that Grok itself stresses are unsourced. A friend who runs a private equity fund told him the story doesn't smell right, and Ram lays out the angles he sees.His read: this is about export controls, not Jensen's personal life. He covers the open-weight models Jensen backed and why the world still needs competition to Anthropic, how Anthropic is timing its releases into its IPO, and why NVIDIA's board, with its VCs, Cooley and a Goldman Sachs executive, would only remove a founder CEO for a willful export violation.He also weighs who could take the helm and why he now calls NVIDIA a value stock. He closes on Nubank's earnings, Goldman Sachs and a proposed credit card rate cap.Chapters(00:00) What X says about Anthropic and Jensen(02:25) Cisco's beat and the AI story(02:46) A story that's not being told(03:13) China and export controls(04:38) Open-weight models and competition(05:35) Anthropic's IPO(06:08) Rumors of an NVIDIA fingerprint(07:31) Inside NVIDIA's board(09:10) When a board removes a founder CEO(10:30) Who could take the helm(11:44) NVIDIA as a value stock(12:16) Congressional hearings ahead(13:00) Nubank's earnings(13:57) Goldman Sachs and the credit card rate capLumida Wealth Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and does not indicate a particular level of skill or ability.References to companies, industry themes, market statistics, prior investment activity, or case studies are included for context and should not be construed as a recommendation or endorsement.Prospective investors should conduct their own diligence and consult their own legal, tax, and financial advisers as appropriate. Connect with Us Online:Lumida NewsLumida DealsLumida WealthLumida ETF Watch the video on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Lumida_Wealth🌐 Website: https://www.lumidawealth.com🐦 Twitter Follow us on https://twitter.com/LumidaWealth🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealth📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealth 

Ram reads the moment for NVIDIA through Jensen's black leather jacket, a symbol the market is now reinterpreting. He says what Jensen did was wrong and not ours to judge, and that Jensen should get a full disclosure out there so it can be priced in.His case for keeping a founder CEO: Jensen sells to the hyperscalers himself, makes bold bets a hired manager would not, and acts as the backstop for the data center trade. A new leader, he argues, would mean slower decisions and less of a bid for the softer parts of the AI market. He also covers who benefits, Broadcom and AMD, the open questions on export controls, and what to watch on NVIDIA's next earnings call.Zooming out, Ram says semis are back, the AI build-out is intact, and there are still bargains out there. He looks at nuclear SMRs, the four-year presidential cycle, Anthropic's IPO and why he would focus on quality businesses at good prices.Chapters(00:00) Reading the black leather jacket(01:31) When a symbol gets rattled: Buffett and IBM(01:57) Jensen's scandal and the case for disclosure(03:16) Who should lead NVIDIA(04:01) Why a founder CEO matters(05:39) What happens when a new leader comes in(06:31) The stock and the Apple comparison(07:47) NVIDIA's race with Broadcom and AMD(08:16) Bold bets a hired CEO would not make(09:06) Congress, Trump and China policy(10:29) CEOs' personal lives and an overrated job(13:57) Who benefits, and NVIDIA's earnings call(16:38) Lisa Su and Hock Tan(17:28) The BP comparison and export controls(19:06) Semis are back: the bigger picture(20:07) Nuclear SMRs(22:16) Themes from 2023 and 2024 and the presidential cycle(23:09) Wall Street Journal covers and buybacks(24:02) Jensen as the backstop for the AI trade(25:45) Headlines: Mississippi, Hegseth and Ukraine(28:11) Sentiment, AI startups and Anthropic's IPO(30:27) Upgrading in qualityLumida Wealth Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and does not indicate a particular level of skill or ability.References to companies, industry themes, market statistics, prior investment activity, or case studies are included for context and should not be construed as a recommendation or endorsement.Prospective investors should conduct their own diligence and consult their own legal, tax, and financial advisers as appropriate. Connect with Us Online:Lumida NewsLumida DealsLumida WealthLumida ETF Watch the video on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Lumida_Wealth🌐 Website: https://www.lumidawealth.com🐦 Twitter Follow us on https://twitter.com/LumidaWealth🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealth📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealth 

Ram recaps his podcast conversation with Patrick McHenry, the former chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and opens with the NVIDIA espionage story behind the New York Post headline.On NVIDIA, he asks what the espionage may really have been after, explains why stolen chip designs lose value fast, and lays out the export-control bear case, while arguing the stock still looks cheap on earnings.On politics and policy: why unaffiliated voters and unstable party coalitions point to more policy and market volatility, how centrist Democratic candidates won, the outlook for a credit card rate cap and the Credit Card Competition Act, and why school choice and verifiable skill badges could fix education.He closes on market positioning, with hedge fund exposure and put buying at extremes.Chapters(00:00) The McHenry interview and the Huang Huang Bang Bang headline(00:47) The market rally and the NVIDIA selloff(01:22) Why NVIDIA looks cheap on earnings(02:12) What the espionage may have been after(03:13) The export-control bear case(05:33) Chinese espionage tactics and executive behavior(07:46) Who Patrick McHenry is(08:29) Unaffiliated voters and the top three issues(10:01) No stable tent for either party(11:08) Tossing out the bums and the AI economy(12:30) Education, student debt and populism(13:45) Why centrist Democratic candidates won(16:49) Deficits and inflation ahead(17:16) The future of the Republican Party(19:04) The credit card rate cap(20:39) The Credit Card Competition Act and stablecoins(21:38) School choice and education reform(24:08) Skill badges as a better form of education(25:44) The Senate and gridlock(26:16) Extreme positioning in the marketsLumida Wealth Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and does not indicate a particular level of skill or ability.References to companies, industry themes, market statistics, prior investment activity, or case studies are included for context and should not be construed as a recommendation or endorsement.Prospective investors should conduct their own diligence and consult their own legal, tax, and financial advisers as appropriate. Connect with Us Online:Lumida NewsLumida DealsLumida WealthLumida ETF Watch the video on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Lumida_Wealth🌐 Website: https://www.lumidawealth.com🐦 Twitter Follow us on https://twitter.com/LumidaWealth🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealth📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealth 

Ram opens with a bounce after what he calls a bear market in AI and related themes, and why he thinks the best time to buy is toward the end of one. He then turns to Anthropic's roadshow: he found the S-1 strong, and he thinks the worst is behind the AI trade as more politicians move toward the center.He shares a conversation with an executive recruiter. Demand for AI talent is frenetic, the hiring now comes from CEOs and business leaders running a P&L rather than from innovation labs, and top engineers set their terms almost like an M&A deal. His view: there is more AI talent out there than recruiters find, among the people already building with the new tools.He also covers seasonality and CapEx after the midterms, how AI could change the act of investing itself through systematic strategies built on factors like momentum and earnings yield, the hot hand effect, diversifying away idiosyncratic risk, and why banning insider trading in Congress looks to him like an easy win.Chapters(00:00) A bounce after the bear market in AI(00:34) Anthropic's roadshow and a strong S-1(02:44) Data centers intact for 2026 and 2027(03:16) What an AI recruiter is seeing(04:43) How AI engineers take offers(05:53) More AI talent than recruiters find(07:17) Staying ahead on AI(07:55) Seasonality, CapEx and the economy(08:38) How AI will transform investing(09:34) Concentration risk and quantitative strategies(12:00) Buying the cheapest stocks by earnings yield(13:50) The hot hand effect(15:14) A systematic approach over copy trading(16:12) Diversifying away idiosyncratic risk(16:39) Anthropic going to market with confidence(17:06) Banning insider trading in Congress(18:14) Citadel talent on the beachLumida Wealth Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and does not indicate a particular level of skill or ability.References to companies, industry themes, market statistics, prior investment activity, or case studies are included for context and should not be construed as a recommendation or endorsement.Prospective investors should conduct their own diligence and consult their own legal, tax, and financial advisers as appropriate. Connect with Us Online:Lumida NewsLumida DealsLumida WealthLumida ETF Watch the video on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Lumida_Wealth🌐 Website: https://www.lumidawealth.com🐦 Twitter Follow us on https://twitter.com/LumidaWealth🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealth📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealth 

On this drive Ram reads the post-midterm selloff. The VIX near 28 looks like panic to him, and he walks through why a Democratic sweep, a proposed data center moratorium in Texas and fear about 2028 hit AI and semiconductor stocks so hard.His view: the fundamentals have not changed. Data centers under construction still get built, the value chain from cloud providers to chips and memory is still making money, and demand for compute keeps rising. He explains why he sees a rolling correction rather than a bubble bursting.He also covers what drove the vote, from inflation and the Iran war to the early shape of the 2028 field, why he calls inflation the enemy of good governance, the role QE played, prediction markets, and why a capex constraint could make the AI build-out last longer.Chapters(00:00) Panic levels in the market(01:18) The Democratic sweep in the midterms(03:06) Inflation and the Iran war behind the vote(03:43) The 2028 race starts to shape up(04:57) Voters did not decide on data centers(06:37) Where both parties could work together(07:46) The 2018 parallel and indiscriminate selling(08:45) Texas and the 2028 data center question(10:25) The CHIPS Act and technology leadership(11:06) Consumer AI tools and job openings(12:21) Why this is not a bubble(14:06) Great earnings that still sell off(15:13) China and the state race for data centers(16:43) DOGE, Medicaid and inflation(17:39) Reactions online and the 2028 field(21:03) QE as the root cause(21:40) Why he stays optimistic(23:44) Accountability and the Iran war(25:04) Inflation is the enemy of good governance(25:54) Prediction markets and excess liquidity(26:52) Can anyone cut inflation(28:13) The Texas governor-elect and data centers(28:53) Too much venture capital, attractive public markets(30:26) A capex constraint means a longer AI cycle(32:05) China, Ukraine and the next electionLumida Wealth Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and does not indicate a particular level of skill or ability.References to companies, industry themes, market statistics, prior investment activity, or case studies are included for context and should not be construed as a recommendation or endorsement.Prospective investors should conduct their own diligence and consult their own legal, tax, and financial advisers as appropriate. Connect with Us Online:Lumida NewsLumida DealsLumida WealthLumida ETF Watch the video on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Lumida_Wealth🌐 Website: https://www.lumidawealth.com🐦 Twitter Follow us on https://twitter.com/LumidaWealth🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealth📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealth 

Ram makes the case that the bubble is in the safe havens. Defensive names like healthcare stocks and Walmart tend to do well in midterm years, when policy uncertainty runs high and investors pay up for predictable cash flows, and he sees them as crowded after they rallied as the data center trade rolled over in July.He turns cautious on Apple as computer orders fall and the higher cost of memory pushes up prices, then reads the first exit polls of the midterms with Grok.His view: much of the election is already priced in. He would rather look at the categories that sold off, like data center infrastructure, where he sees free cash flow yields getting more interesting. He closes on Tim Cook's record at Apple, Trump's fractured base and why gridlock would suit markets.Chapters(00:00) Early midterm turnout signals(00:44) The bubble is in healthcare stocks(01:33) A big rotation and the big ball of liquidity(02:16) Why Ram is cautious on Apple(03:32) Grok on the early exit polls(05:22) Own what sold off, avoid the safe havens(06:05) Free cash flow yields and NVIDIA(06:38) Tim Cook's record and the new Apple CEO(07:26) Trump's fractured base(08:30) Why gridlock suits marketsLumida Wealth Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and does not indicate a particular level of skill or ability.References to companies, industry themes, market statistics, prior investment activity, or case studies are included for context and should not be construed as a recommendation or endorsement.Prospective investors should conduct their own diligence and consult their own legal, tax, and financial advisers as appropriate. Connect with Us Online:Lumida NewsLumida DealsLumida WealthLumida ETF Watch the video on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Lumida_Wealth🌐 Website: https://www.lumidawealth.com🐦 Twitter Follow us on https://twitter.com/LumidaWealth🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealth📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealth 

Ram looks at the midterms through the lens of markets. His bottom line: the betting markets are likely right, Democrats look set to take the House, and the Senate should be more competitive than people expect. For markets, he says, gridlock would help the most.He explains the inverse Trump bump. Markets have been pricing in a Democratic win for months, so much of it is already consensus, and themes like AI, semis, financials and defense stocks have started to come off their lows.From there he widens out: populism on both sides, how quantitative easing pushed up house prices, a Manhattan landlord caught in rent control, and why excess federal deficit spending is linked to corporate profits. His take: stay the long game, the economy is strong and the AI story is real.Chapters(00:00) Midterms and the stock market(06:09) Susan Collins and the betting markets(06:51) Why gridlock is best for markets(07:20) The inverse Trump bump(08:11) What is already priced in: AI, semis, financials and defense(09:05) Elections matter: Brazil and the Clinton years(10:21) Student debt and the rise of populism(11:32) Quantitative easing and house prices(12:20) A Manhattan landlord and rent control(13:59) When markets don't allocate resources(15:18) Why Ram is still an optimist on America(16:55) Deficit spending and corporate profits(18:27) Two election scenarios for marketsLumida Wealth Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and does not indicate a particular level of skill or ability.References to companies, industry themes, market statistics, prior investment activity, or case studies are included for context and should not be construed as a recommendation or endorsement.Prospective investors should conduct their own diligence and consult their own legal, tax, and financial advisers as appropriate. Connect with Us Online:Lumida NewsLumida DealsLumida WealthLumida ETF Watch the video on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Lumida_Wealth🌐 Website: https://www.lumidawealth.com🐦 Twitter Follow us on https://twitter.com/LumidaWealth🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealth📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealth 

Anthropic just filed for what could be the biggest tech IPO in history. We went through the S-1 so you don't have to.Ram Ahluwalia sits down with returning guest Michael Parekh, former Goldman Sachs analyst and author of AI: Reset to Zero, to break down what the filing actually reveals:→ 48% of revenue runs through Amazon, Google and Microsoft, which also compete with Anthropic→ Broadcom, Google and Amazon are financing their own customer. Clean financing or circular?→ For every $100 of revenue: $14 in cost, $60 in R&D, and a $4 operating loss→ Only about 1,900 customers pay $1M+ a year. Still early?→ Ken Griffin says AI models are the new airlines. Is he right?Watch the full conversation on YouTube: https://youtu.be/vo_NOv2i8-AFollow Michael Parekh: AI: Reset to Zero on Substack https://michaelparekh.substack.com · X @mparekhFollow Ram: X @ramahluwaliaChapters:00:00 Intro01:11 Inside the S-1: a $30T market07:53 48% of revenue runs through rival clouds12:11 Circular financing: Broadcom, Google, Amazon20:17 $10T to fund AI through 203220:51 Clean vs. dirty financing24:05 The unit economics26:54 Pricing power: is Ken Griffin right?32:50 Jevons paradox and open-weight models38:49 Only 1,900 customers pay $1M+43:48 Agents are the new form factor47:40 DRAM, semis and the Cambrian explosion51:58 The rise of the harness58:17 Vertical AI: Harvey, Rogo, Lumida59:44 Where to find Michael―――Lumida is your Wealth Architect.We serve investors seeking a holistic approach to building and preserving wealth beyond traditional portfolios.Website: https://www.lumidawealth.comConnect with Us:X: https://twitter.com/LumidaWealthTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealthInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealthSubscribe, follow, and stay connected with Lumida Wealth for more insights, strategies, and guidance to help you build a lasting legacy. Your financial future starts with the choices you make today—let us help you make the right ones.Disclaimer: Content provided by Lumida is for informational purposes only. Reproduction without approval is prohibited. Lumida Wealth doesn't offer services or securities sales here. Investing involves risk, and third-party comments don't guarantee future results. Lumida disclaims liability for information accuracy. Connect with Us Online:Lumida NewsLumida DealsLumida WealthLumida ETF Watch the video on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Lumida_Wealth🌐 Website: https://www.lumidawealth.com🐦 Twitter Follow us on https://twitter.com/LumidaWealth🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealth📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealth 

On one of the busiest days of earnings season, Ram works through the reports from the driver's seat with Grok: Amazon, Reddit, ServiceNow and Norwegian Cruise Line, then Intel and the talks between Marvell and Lumentum.On Amazon, he sees the cloud as the crown jewel. Hyperscalers keep handing cash to the chipmakers, Google is closing the gap in cloud, and Trainium takes aim at NVIDIA, which he still sees in pole position. He finds consumer spending brisk, and calls Amazon an expensive stock with great businesses inside it.Reddit sold off on its outlook as AI search pulls traffic away from Google results, and he asks who should buy it. He is bearish on ServiceNow, a ticketing system he expects AI to pressure, and sees cruise lines and airlines as cheap on energy fears while baby boomers keep traveling.He closes on Intel spending as a CapEx payer rather than a receiver, Marvell's move for Lumentum, NVIDIA playing chess, and the rush of capital into AI assistants.Chapters(00:00) One of the busiest days of earnings season(01:08) Amazon's Trainium push and NVIDIA's lead(01:55) Grok on Amazon's quarter(03:44) AWS CapEx and the backlog(05:13) Hyperscalers hand cash to semiconductors(05:56) Google closes the cloud gap(06:24) Trainium, OpenAI and revenue visibility(07:19) A services economy driven by cloud(07:32) Consumer spend runs ahead of inflation(08:06) Why Amazon trades at a premium(08:36) Return on capital from Amazon's logistics(10:01) What Amazon's report implies for Shopify(10:44) Amazon's third-party seller business(11:49) Tech sells off, Reddit included(12:19) Reddit loses Google traffic to AI search(13:05) AEO over SEO(13:33) Grok on Reddit's quarter(15:42) Why Reddit sold off(17:49) AI changes traffic patterns on the web(18:03) Is Reddit good value?(18:24) Who should buy Reddit(18:52) AI owning the customer relationship(20:42) Bearish on ServiceNow(21:11) Grok on ServiceNow's quarter(24:31) ServiceNow's AI pivot(25:12) Norwegian Cruise Line's quarter(27:48) Higher energy costs create opportunities(28:11) More days per year and the baby boomers(28:43) The Costco hot dog strategy(29:15) 252 episodes and counting(29:55) Airlines, cruise lines and the aging demographic(30:36) Intel, the CapEx payer(32:02) Marvell and Lumentum(33:29) Lumentum and the momentum back test(34:10) NVIDIA is playing chess(34:55) Big rounds for AI assistantsLumida Wealth Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and does not indicate a particular level of skill or ability.References to companies, industry themes, market statistics, prior investment activity, or case studies are included for context and should not be construed as a recommendation or endorsement.Prospective investors should conduct their own diligence and consult their own legal, tax, and financial advisers as appropriate. Connect with Us Online:Lumida NewsLumida DealsLumida WealthLumida ETF Watch the video on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Lumida_Wealth🌐 Website: https://www.lumidawealth.com🐦 Twitter Follow us on https://twitter.com/LumidaWealth🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealth📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealth