What's happened to those who voted Labour in 2024?

I've popped up on a movie podcast, War Movie Theatre with Rob Hutton and Duncan Weldon. Here is what they have to say about the show: "A 1964 film about accidental nuclear war from a legendary director and featuring a German scientist with homicidal ideas? That's right, it's Dr Strangelove… hang on, no, it's Fail Safe. Overshadowed on release because of a lawsuit from a rival film (you can guess which), this parable from Sidney Lumet has come to be regarded as a classic, with fans including George Clooney. "The Ocean's 11 star couldn't be with us to make the case for it himself, so we're joined by a man known to many as the Clooney of British politics, Mark Pack: polling expert, Liberal Democrat member of the House of Lords and Total Nerd." Show notes War Movie Theatre podcast with Rob Hutton and Duncan Weldon: Apple, Spotify and YouTube. Never Mind the Bar Charts theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes.

This episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts features podcast favourite Phil Cowley talking about his new book, The Smallest Room in the House. It is crammed full of fun yet useful insights from political science. Listen to us talk about Simon Cowell, fish and chip shops, riots, the rise of AI, potholes and more. Show notes All the fish and chip shops in the UK. Distribution of passport ownership. Causes and Consequences of Electoral Violence 1832-1914. Philip Cowley on Bluesky. Read a free chapter from the book. Get The Smallest Room in the House: 50 political oddities to read in more than one sitting from Waterstones, Amazon (including e-book version) and Bookshop.org (affiliate links). Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts sees a return to the show for Professor Rob Ford. We dive into my favourite political paradox to discuss with him: the long term liberalising trends in British politics and yet the run of wins for the Conservatives and populist right. Who is going to come out on top? Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes What caused Brexit? Previous podcast with Rob Ford. Sunder Katwala / British Future on 'balancers' on immigration. Depending on your definitions, this person was a century and more ahead of those we mentioned in the podcast in being someone from an ethnic minority who became both Chancellor and then Prime Minister. Glaciers. The British General Election of 2024 by Rob Ford, Tim Bale, Will Jennings and Paula Surridge is now available to pre-order: Amazon, Waterstones. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts sees me discuss with polling expert Steve Akehurst what has happened to Labour's July 2024 vote. We dive into the characteristics of those who voted for Starmer but are now flirting with Farage, as well as ask whether those folk are really the whole story. Show notes Getting to know ‘Reform curious Labour voters’ by Steve Akehurst. What would make Labour defectors more positive about Labour? The problems with polling averages. Labour's problem is a Michael Barber not a Morgan McSweeney one. Pollsters split over what's happened to Labour's 2024 vote: I have now done the crosstabs analysis we talk about on the show. The County Durham by-election mentioned on the show. Steve Akehurst on Bluesky. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. Downing Street street name sign: photo by PublicDomainPictures from Pixabay and used under the Pixabay license. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts features an interview with Emeritus Professor Jonathan Parry, whose new book, Liberalism, explores the history of liberalism as a political idea in Britain.  Parry emphasises that liberalism is best understood through the actions of politicians rather than the abstract theories of political intellectuals. Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes Liberalism by Jonathan Parry: Amazon, Bookshop.org or Waterstones. Professor Jonathan Parry. Previous podcast with Duncan Brack about Jo Grimond. Photo of Big Ben CC0 Public Domain. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts saw me team up with John Potter and the Lib Dem Pod team to discuss the local elections. How did they go for the Liberal Democrats and what lessons are there for the party? Show notes Some highlights from the local election results. Lib Dem Pod. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

John Potter of the Lib Dem Pod quizzed me about my first experiences of the House of Lords for our latest joint podcast. Show notes Lib Dem Pod. The Government Chief Whip's Ring Binder. Photograph © House of Lords 2024 / photography by Roger Harris. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts is another in the occasional series looking back at previous party leaders with Duncan Brack. This time we pick over Jeremy Thorpe's career - securing Britain's place in Europe, leading the Liberal Party to national prominence and then mired in scandal. What to make of it all? Show notes Our previous episode about Jo Grimond - www.markpack.org.uk/161656/jo-grimond-podcast/ Our interview of Jeremy Thorpe - www.markpack.org.uk/1486/jeremy-thorpe-interview/ Jeremy Thorpe and Jimi Hendrix - www.mediastorehouse.co.uk/memory-lane-prints/mirror/0100to0199-00163/jeremy-thorpe-jimi-hendrix-concert-jimi-hendrix-21541729.html Other photos of Jeremy Thorpe looking stylish - www.gettyimages.co.uk/search/2/image?family=editorial&phrase=jeremy%20thorpe&sort=oldest&recency=daterange&begindate=1960-01-01&enddate=1980-01-01 Peter Cook satirises the judge's summing up in the trial of Jeremy Thorpe - www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyos-M48B8U Duncan Brack on Bluesky - bsky.app/profile/duncanbrack.bsky.social The Lib Dem History Group is at liberalhistory.org.uk Jeremy Thorpe by Michael Bloch is available from Amazon - amzn.to/41QQUf5 - Bookshop.org - uk.bookshop.org/a/588/9780349142203 - and Waterstones - tidd.ly/3DhN31o Theme tune by Hugo Lee: hugoleemusic.com New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts: www.markpack.org.uk/161708/how-to-listen-to-a-podcast Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes: www.markpack.org.uk/168491/most-popular-episodes-never-mind-the-bar-charts

Peter Kellner join sme to discuss a new report on what is going wrong with our politics, and the solutions. No surprise then that our conversation focused on populism, its causes and how liberals can defeat it. Show notes Disruptive Delivery: Meeting the Unmet Demand in Politics, with polling from Deltapoll. The Challenge of Affluence: Self-Control and Well-Being in the United States and Britain since 1950 by Avner Offer (affiliate link). An example from the 1990s of failing to predict the political future. How incumbent governments did badly in elections in 2024. The three humped graph from the report. Liberal Democrat achievements in government. Lib Dem policymaking on AI. Peter Kellner's polling newsletter. The Week in Polls. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts saw Paula Surridge return to the show, talking about the impact of political values and of perceived competence on recent general elections. We got into some surprising similarities between Tony Blair and Nigel Farage, as well as ways in which Boris Johnson and Gordon Brown were the same. Take a listen to find out how on earth we ended up there. Show notes "Values in the Valence Election: Fragmentation and the 2024 General Election" by Paula Surridge. Also in blog form here. Why we made a joke about cease and desist letters. The graph which we mentioned. Paula Surridge on Bluesky and Substack. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes.