#56 Patrick Kazley - The Systematic House of Cards: Overfitting, Convexity and Protecting Portfolios

Would you fire your goalkeeper for not scoring? Patrick Kazley, CEO of One River Asset Management, tells Stefan Wagner that this is effectively how many investors judge their hedges. They discuss long volatility, trend, the “backtest Olympics,” and one of the hardest parts of hedging: knowing when to take profits in a crisis.

Downside protection has traditionally been treated as a cost: a premium investors pay year after year for an event they hope never arrives. But what if a structural change in the index-options market has altered that equation? Join Zem Sternberg and Stefan Wagner as they examine what has shifted, why the odds in index options may now favour the buyer, and what that means for how you think about convexity, hedging and income strategies.www.nalufinance.com

Most investors write Japan off. Too slow. Too opaque. Too different.Gabriel Colominas Bigorra has spent over a decade finding deeply undervalued companies in Japan's small-cap market, trading at 2, 3, sometimes 5 times free cash flow while the rest of the world looked the other way.In this episode, we get into why Japan is still one of the most mispriced markets, how a landmark governance reform is quietly changing everything, and what it actually takes to unlock value when you are an outsider in one of the world's most relationship-driven business cultures.

Nikki Varanasi, CEO of Parrot Finance, breaks down how everyday investors can now mirror real portfolios from hedge funds, asset managers and top investors. Stop guessing. Start mirroring the pros!

Stefan Wagner is joined by Charles Sunnucks of Oldfield Partners to discuss how valuation really works in emerging markets. Drawing on The Company Valuation Playbook, Charles explains his COURT, CASTLE, and MOAT framework, the practical use of DCF and reverse DCF, and how investors can separate good companies from good investments while managing risk and uncertainty.

Private Mortgage Investing in Paradise with Reed MyersIn this episode of the Nalu Finance Podcast, Stefan Wagner interviews Reed Kawai Myers, Principal of Myers Capital Hawaii. They discuss private mortgage and bridge loan investing, and examine why Hawaii is a uniquely attractive yet underbanked market.They explore how private lending operates outside of traditional banks, detailing how investors can access asset-backed mortgage opportunities. The episode covers expected returns, approaches to risk management, liquidity considerations, and the process when borrowers default.This is a practical conversation about alternative income strategies and the realities of private credit investing.

Joe Sarachek shares real-world lessons from decades in distressed investing—how to value troubled assets, avoid bad deals, and navigate bankruptcy with confidence. A concise masterclass on buying right.

In this episode, Tiago Fernandes, Head of Structured Products at SPi, joins Stefan Wagner to discuss the evolution of structured product markets across Europe, Asia, and North America, and what will shape their future.From capital protection and tax incentives to data transparency, regulation, and lifecycle automation, Tiago provides a rare global perspective on how structured products are designed, distributed, and managed. Having worked with issuers, distributors, and data providers worldwide, he explains how each region has developed its own ecosystem.He also highlights the next big challenges for the industry: rising data costs, index licensing monopolies, and the complexity of payoff automation, as well as the growing importance of cross-asset, insurance-linked, and non-bankable assets in meeting investor demand.What’s Inside: • How structured product markets differ across Europe, Asia, and the US • Why tax and capital protection drive product innovation globally • How automation and lifecycle management are transforming efficiency • Why data and index costs threaten transparency and margins • What’s next: insurance-linked, cross-asset, and non-bankable investmentsWhy Listen: This episode offers a rare, inside view of how regulation, technology, and investor needs converge to shape the next generation of structured products, told by one of the industry’s most experienced global experts.

In this conversation with Corey Hoffstein, CEO and CIO of Newfound Research, portfolio manager for Return Stacked® ETFs, and host of one of my favourite podcasts, “Flirting with Models”, we explore why the structure you choose can determine whether a good idea actually works.We dive into the origins of return stacking, the power of capital efficiency, and how behavioural frictions like “line-item risk” shape investor outcomes. From ETF design to liquidity pitfalls, this is both a technical and practical look at building better portfolios. 

In this conversation with André Buck, one of Switzerland’s most recognised structured product experts, we trace the evolution of an industry shaped by technology, tax policy, and client demand.With stories from UBS to SIX and insights into everything from cold calls to capital protection, André offers both nostalgia and hard-won clarity on where structured investing must go next.