Open Models Will Reach Frontier Level in Months | Nick Khami

Nick Khami of Morph breaks down the economics of AI compute, debunking the idea that there is infinite demand for raw inference. He explains how the Neocloud credit crunch will play out, why open-source models reaching frontier level creates a need for verifiable inference, and how inference clusters differ from training clusters. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.MTS chronicles the singularity, live. Monitoring the situation of tech and AI.Follow MTS: X | ⁠https://twitter.com/MTSlive⁠YouTube | ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@mtsituation⁠Spotify | ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4HUNNmV1pjV7CW6Lphm1rM⁠ Apple | ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mts/id1891088763⁠ Substack | ⁠https://mtslive.substack.com/⁠–Brought to you by:Mongo DB - Anyone can prototype an agent. Learn how to get them into production on September 30th in New York - register at https://www.mongodb.com/events/mongodb-local/nycChargebee - Billing and monetization infrastructure for the AI era. https://www.chargebee.com/Lovable - Turn ideas into software people love with Lovable. Start today at https://lovable.dev/ElevenLabs -  AI that communicates at human level across every channel and modality. https://elevenlabs.io/mtsFactory - A 24/7 system turning signals into production software. Visit https://factory.com/Neon (by Databricks) - Scale your startup on Neon. The Postgres backend for apps and agents. Built by Databricks. ⁠https://neon.com/mts⁠Today’s stream is sponsored by VCX, the public ticker for private tech. Head over to http://getvcx.com  to learn moreKong - The AI connectivity platform. Connect APIs, LLMs, agents, and systems with serious security and governance. https://konghq.comLarridin - Finally prove what your AI investment is worth. Head to https://larridin.com/ today to start measuring your AI’s bottom line.Blitzy - Autonomous software development for enterprise codebases. Ship 5x faster. https://blitzy.comArena - Measuring AI performance in the real world. ⁠https://arena.ai/⁠AdQuick - Make your brand a billboard. Out-of-home advertising as easy to scale as digital. https://adquick.comClickhouse - The real-time database that keeps up with all of it. https://clickhouse.com/–Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:49) What Morph Is And Morph Ultra (01:23) Anthropic And Formally Verifying Inference (03:47) How Zk-SNARKs Prove Model Authenticity (04:49) The Neocloud Credit Crunch Narrative (06:49) Why Compute Demand Isn’t Infinite (09:30) Building Inference Clusters For Coding Agents–Note: This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.

Will Depue joins Theo Jaffee to discuss using Claude and Codex to comb through public telescope data for new asteroids and dwarf planets, which inspired his new nonprofit Macro Grants. They also dig into his viral tweets on human obsolescence, why he thinks functional human skills will be wiped out in 15 to 20 years, and his evolutionary concerns about AI as a fitter species. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.MTS chronicles the singularity, live. Monitoring the situation of tech and AI.Follow MTS: X | ⁠https://twitter.com/MTSlive⁠YouTube | ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@mtsituation⁠Spotify | ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4HUNNmV1pjV7CW6Lphm1rM⁠ Apple | ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mts/id1891088763⁠ Substack | ⁠https://mtslive.substack.com/⁠–Brought to you by:Mongo DB - Anyone can prototype an agent. Learn how to get them into production on September 30th in New York - register at https://www.mongodb.com/events/mongodb-local/nycChargebee - Billing and monetization infrastructure for the AI era. https://www.chargebee.com/Lovable - Turn ideas into software people love with Lovable. Start today at https://lovable.dev/ElevenLabs -  AI that communicates at human level across every channel and modality. https://elevenlabs.io/mtsFactory - A 24/7 system turning signals into production software. Visit https://factory.com/Neon (by Databricks) - Scale your startup on Neon. The Postgres backend for apps and agents. Built by Databricks. ⁠https://neon.com/mts⁠Today’s stream is sponsored by VCX, the public ticker for private tech. Head over to http://getvcx.com  to learn moreKong - The AI connectivity platform. Connect APIs, LLMs, agents, and systems with serious security and governance. https://konghq.comLarridin - Finally prove what your AI investment is worth. Head to https://larridin.com/ today to start measuring your AI’s bottom line.Blitzy - Autonomous software development for enterprise codebases. Ship 5x faster. https://blitzy.comArena - Measuring AI performance in the real world. ⁠https://arena.ai/⁠AdQuick - Make your brand a billboard. Out-of-home advertising as easy to scale as digital. https://adquick.comClickhouse - The real-time database that keeps up with all of it. https://clickhouse.com/Horizon3 - Don't assume you're secure. Prove it. Go hack yourself with AI. https://horizon3.ai/nodezero/–Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:47) $100k Amateur Astronomy Grant (01:45) Finding Dwarf Planets With Claude (04:00) Other Low-Hanging AI Research Fruit (05:16) “It’s Over For Humans” Tweet (09:56) AI Evolution And Natural Selection (14:25) Launching Macro Grants Nonprofit–Note: This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.

Redwood Research CEO Buck Shlegeris joins Theo and Sofia to unpack his recent post predicting a 33% chance that AI companies build superintelligence within the next year. They examine the modeling behind rapid recursive self-improvement (RSI), how capabilities on verifiable tasks generalize to real-world domains like robotics, potential AI takeover scenarios, and why algorithmic secrecy matters as much as model weight security in the US-China race. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.https://x.com/bshlgrs--MTS chronicles the singularity, live. Monitoring the situation of tech and AI.Follow MTS: X | ⁠https://twitter.com/MTSlive⁠YouTube | ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@mtsituation⁠Spotify | ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4HUNNmV1pjV7CW6Lphm1rM⁠ Apple | ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mts/id1891088763⁠ Substack | ⁠https://mtslive.substack.com/⁠–Brought to you by:Mongo DB - Anyone can prototype an agent. Learn how to get them into production on September 30th in New York - register at https://www.mongodb.com/events/mongodb-local/nycChargebee - Billing and monetization infrastructure for the AI era. https://www.chargebee.com/Lovable - Turn ideas into software people love with Lovable. Start today at https://lovable.dev/ElevenLabs -  AI that communicates at human level across every channel and modality. https://elevenlabs.io/mtsFactory - A 24/7 system turning signals into production software. Visit https://factory.com/Neon (by Databricks) - Scale your startup on Neon. The Postgres backend for apps and agents. Built by Databricks. ⁠https://neon.com/mts⁠Today’s stream is sponsored by VCX, the public ticker for private tech. Head over to http://getvcx.com  to learn moreKong - The AI connectivity platform. Connect APIs, LLMs, agents, and systems with serious security and governance. https://konghq.comLarridin - Finally prove what your AI investment is worth. Head to https://larridin.com/ today to start measuring your AI’s bottom line.Blitzy - Autonomous software development for enterprise codebases. Ship 5x faster. https://blitzy.comArena - Measuring AI performance in the real world. ⁠https://arena.ai/⁠AdQuick - Make your brand a billboard. Out-of-home advertising as easy to scale as digital. https://adquick.comClickhouse - The real-time database that keeps up with all of it. https://clickhouse.com/Horizon3 - Don't assume you're secure. Prove it. Go hack yourself with AI. https://horizon3.ai/nodezero/–Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (01:09) 33% Chance of Superintelligence Next Year (03:51) Diminishing Returns vs. AI Acceleration (08:13) Generalizing From Verifiable to Real-World Tasks (11:30) Where Is the AI Safety Uplift? (15:45) Human Enslavement vs. Peaceful AI Takeover (22:00) Algorithmic Security in the US-China Race (23:37) What Would Prove Short Timelines Wrong?–Note: This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.

Tempus AI founder and CEO Eric Lefkofsky discusses how his company aggregates 600 petabytes of multimodal clinical and molecular data across over 8,000 US hospitals to personalize cancer care and accelerate drug discovery. He explains why general frontier models fail on raw medical data like ECGs and DNA sequences without heavy post-training, shares the personal origin of Tempus following his wife’s breast cancer diagnosis, and outlines his three-to-ten-year timeline for AI-driven clinical and pharmaceutical breakthroughs. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.https://x.com/lefkofsky--MTS chronicles the singularity, live. Monitoring the situation of tech and AI.Follow MTS: X | ⁠https://twitter.com/MTSlive⁠YouTube | ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@mtsituation⁠Spotify | ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4HUNNmV1pjV7CW6Lphm1rM⁠ Apple | ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mts/id1891088763⁠ Substack | ⁠https://mtslive.substack.com/⁠–Brought to you by:Mongo DB - Anyone can prototype an agent. Learn how to get them into production on September 30th in New York - register at https://www.mongodb.com/events/mongodb-local/nycChargebee - Billing and monetization infrastructure for the AI era. https://www.chargebee.com/Lovable - Turn ideas into software people love with Lovable. Start today at https://lovable.dev/ElevenLabs -  AI that communicates at human level across every channel and modality. https://elevenlabs.io/mtsFactory - A 24/7 system turning signals into production software. Visit https://factory.com/Neon (by Databricks) - Scale your startup on Neon. The Postgres backend for apps and agents. Built by Databricks. ⁠https://neon.com/mts⁠Today’s stream is sponsored by VCX, the public ticker for private tech. Head over to http://getvcx.com  to learn moreKong - The AI connectivity platform. Connect APIs, LLMs, agents, and systems with serious security and governance. https://konghq.comLarridin - Finally prove what your AI investment is worth. Head to https://larridin.com/ today to start measuring your AI’s bottom line.Blitzy - Autonomous software development for enterprise codebases. Ship 5x faster. https://blitzy.comArena - Measuring AI performance in the real world. ⁠https://arena.ai/⁠AdQuick - Make your brand a billboard. Out-of-home advertising as easy to scale as digital. https://adquick.comClickhouse - The real-time database that keeps up with all of it. https://clickhouse.com/Horizon3 - Don't assume you're secure. Prove it. Go hack yourself with AI. https://horizon3.ai/nodezero/–Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (01:07) Tempus AI Record Q3 Results (02:16) Why 2026 Unlocks Multimodal Healthcare Data (04:09) Tempus AI’s Personal Origin Story (08:35) Wiring Over 8,000 US Hospitals (10:31) Why General LLMs Fail On Medicine (12:40) Healthcare’s Massive AI Investment Opportunity (15:39) Catching Returning Cancer Months Early–Note: This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.

David Gal, VP of Product and Engineering for Connected Equipment at Samsara, discusses how physical AI is transforming industrial operations across airports, mines, warehouses, and construction sites. He breaks down the launch of the ruggedized Samsara 360 AI camera—deployed by customers like Alaska Airlines to prevent tarmac accidents—and explains how Samsara leverages trillions of data points from millions of vehicles to build rapid, real-world AI products like off-corridor shipment detection. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.MTS chronicles the singularity, live. Monitoring the situation of tech and AI.Follow MTS: X | ⁠https://twitter.com/MTSlive⁠YouTube | ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@mtsituation⁠Spotify | ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4HUNNmV1pjV7CW6Lphm1rM⁠ Apple | ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mts/id1891088763⁠ Substack | ⁠https://mtslive.substack.com/⁠–Brought to you by:Mongo DB - Anyone can prototype an agent. Learn how to get them into production on September 30th in New York - register at https://www.mongodb.com/events/mongodb-local/nycChargebee - Billing and monetization infrastructure for the AI era. https://www.chargebee.com/Lovable - Turn ideas into software people love with Lovable. Start today at https://lovable.dev/ElevenLabs -  AI that communicates at human level across every channel and modality. https://elevenlabs.io/mtsFactory - A 24/7 system turning signals into production software. Visit https://factory.com/Neon (by Databricks) - Scale your startup on Neon. The Postgres backend for apps and agents. Built by Databricks. ⁠https://neon.com/mts⁠Today’s stream is sponsored by VCX, the public ticker for private tech. Head over to http://getvcx.com  to learn moreKong - The AI connectivity platform. Connect APIs, LLMs, agents, and systems with serious security and governance. https://konghq.comLarridin - Finally prove what your AI investment is worth. Head to https://larridin.com/ today to start measuring your AI’s bottom line.Blitzy - Autonomous software development for enterprise codebases. Ship 5x faster. https://blitzy.comArena - Measuring AI performance in the real world. ⁠https://arena.ai/⁠AdQuick - Make your brand a billboard. Out-of-home advertising as easy to scale as digital. https://adquick.comClickhouse - The real-time database that keeps up with all of it. https://clickhouse.com/Horizon3 - Don't assume you're secure. Prove it. Go hack yourself with AI. https://horizon3.ai/nodezero/–Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (01:00) The Future of Physical AI (02:37) Sizing the Physical Operations Market (03:25) Expanding From Vehicles to Heavy Equipment (05:00) Customer Stories From the Job Site (08:14) Alaska Airlines’ 360 Camera Deployment (10:28) Samsara’s Trillion-Data-Point AI Moat (12:23) What’s Next for Samsara–Note: This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.

Databricks Senior Director of Product Management Ken Wong discusses the launch of Always On Genie, an autonomous enterprise data agent, alongside Genie Ontology and new co-work features. He explains why missing organizational context—not frontier model intelligence—is the primary bottleneck keeping AI agents from automating real-world knowledge work, and outlines how Databricks uses autonomous agents internally while tackling governance and ROI hurdles. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.MTS chronicles the singularity, live. Monitoring the situation of tech and AI.Follow MTS: X | ⁠https://twitter.com/MTSlive⁠YouTube | ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@mtsituation⁠Spotify | ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4HUNNmV1pjV7CW6Lphm1rM⁠ Apple | ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mts/id1891088763⁠ Substack | ⁠https://mtslive.substack.com/⁠–Brought to you by:Mongo DB - Anyone can prototype an agent. Learn how to get them into production on September 30th in New York - register at https://www.mongodb.com/events/mongodb-local/nycChargebee - Billing and monetization infrastructure for the AI era. https://www.chargebee.com/Lovable - Turn ideas into software people love with Lovable. Start today at https://lovable.dev/ElevenLabs -  AI that communicates at human level across every channel and modality. https://elevenlabs.io/mtsFactory - A 24/7 system turning signals into production software. Visit https://factory.com/Neon (by Databricks) - Scale your startup on Neon. The Postgres backend for apps and agents. Built by Databricks. ⁠https://neon.com/mts⁠Today’s stream is sponsored by VCX, the public ticker for private tech. Head over to http://getvcx.com  to learn moreKong - The AI connectivity platform. Connect APIs, LLMs, agents, and systems with serious security and governance. https://konghq.comLarridin - Finally prove what your AI investment is worth. Head to https://larridin.com/ today to start measuring your AI’s bottom line.Blitzy - Autonomous software development for enterprise codebases. Ship 5x faster. https://blitzy.comArena - Measuring AI performance in the real world. ⁠https://arena.ai/⁠AdQuick - Make your brand a billboard. Out-of-home advertising as easy to scale as digital. https://adquick.comClickhouse - The real-time database that keeps up with all of it. https://clickhouse.com/Horizon3 - Don't assume you're secure. Prove it. Go hack yourself with AI. https://horizon3.ai/nodezero/–Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:59) Databricks Launches Always On Genie (02:40) The Missing Enterprise Context Gap (06:06) How Databricks Uses Autonomous Agents (08:33) Biggest Bottlenecks to Agent Adoption (10:07) Solving Agent Governance and Accountability (13:07) Future of Enterprise Knowledge Work (14:04) What Is Next for Databricks–Note: This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.

Kong CEO Augie Marietti shares enterprise AI gateway data showing that Fortune 500 companies still spend overwhelmingly on frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic rather than open-weight models. He explains why true end-to-end enterprise agents are still five years away due to API connectivity bottlenecks, and predicts that companies will increasingly run dozens of internal models like mini neo-labs. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.MTS chronicles the singularity, live. Monitoring the situation of tech and AI.Follow MTS: X | ⁠https://twitter.com/MTSlive⁠YouTube | ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@mtsituation⁠Spotify | ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4HUNNmV1pjV7CW6Lphm1rM⁠ Apple | ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mts/id1891088763⁠ Substack | ⁠https://mtslive.substack.com/⁠–Brought to you by:Mongo DB - Anyone can prototype an agent. Learn how to get them into production on September 30th in New York - register at https://www.mongodb.com/events/mongodb-local/nycChargebee - Billing and monetization infrastructure for the AI era. https://www.chargebee.com/Lovable - Turn ideas into software people love with Lovable. Start today at https://lovable.dev/ElevenLabs -  AI that communicates at human level across every channel and modality. https://elevenlabs.io/mtsFactory - A 24/7 system turning signals into production software. Visit https://factory.com/Neon (by Databricks) - Scale your startup on Neon. The Postgres backend for apps and agents. Built by Databricks. ⁠https://neon.com/mts⁠Today’s stream is sponsored by VCX, the public ticker for private tech. Head over to http://getvcx.com  to learn moreKong - The AI connectivity platform. Connect APIs, LLMs, agents, and systems with serious security and governance. https://konghq.comLarridin - Finally prove what your AI investment is worth. Head to https://larridin.com/ today to start measuring your AI’s bottom line.Blitzy - Autonomous software development for enterprise codebases. Ship 5x faster. https://blitzy.comArena - Measuring AI performance in the real world. ⁠https://arena.ai/⁠AdQuick - Make your brand a billboard. Out-of-home advertising as easy to scale as digital. https://adquick.comClickhouse - The real-time database that keeps up with all of it. https://clickhouse.com/Horizon3 - Don't assume you're secure. Prove it. Go hack yourself with AI. https://horizon3.ai/nodezero/–Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:44) Open-Weight Models vs. Anthropic (03:49) Will Cheaper Tokens Lower AI Bills (05:22) Why Enterprise Agents Are Delayed (08:37) Five-Year AI Market Predictions (09:44) Why Frontier Models Keep Winning (11:45) Inside Enterprise AI Gateway Data (13:35) Will AI Models Become Commodities–Note: This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.

Canva Head of AI Research Stefano Corazza discusses how generative AI is reshaping creativity, the human-machine interface, and content production. He explains how Canva trains models like Craft to learn design taste, plan layouts before rendering pixels, and turn real-time user edits across 250 million monthly users into reinforcement learning signals, while predicting a 100x drop in video generation costs and brain-computer interfaces within 20 years. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.MTS chronicles the singularity, live. Monitoring the situation of tech and AI.Follow MTS: X | ⁠https://twitter.com/MTSlive⁠YouTube | ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@mtsituation⁠Spotify | ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4HUNNmV1pjV7CW6Lphm1rM⁠ Apple | ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mts/id1891088763⁠ Substack | ⁠https://mtslive.substack.com/⁠–Brought to you by:Mongo DB - Anyone can prototype an agent. Learn how to get them into production on September 30th in New York - register at https://www.mongodb.com/events/mongodb-local/nycChargebee - Billing and monetization infrastructure for the AI era. https://www.chargebee.com/Lovable - Turn ideas into software people love with Lovable. Start today at https://lovable.dev/ElevenLabs -  AI that communicates at human level across every channel and modality. https://elevenlabs.io/mtsFactory - A 24/7 system turning signals into production software. Visit https://factory.com/Neon (by Databricks) - Scale your startup on Neon. The Postgres backend for apps and agents. Built by Databricks. ⁠https://neon.com/mts⁠Today’s stream is sponsored by VCX, the public ticker for private tech. Head over to http://getvcx.com  to learn moreKong - The AI connectivity platform. Connect APIs, LLMs, agents, and systems with serious security and governance. https://konghq.comLarridin - Finally prove what your AI investment is worth. Head to https://larridin.com/ today to start measuring your AI’s bottom line.Blitzy - Autonomous software development for enterprise codebases. Ship 5x faster. https://blitzy.comArena - Measuring AI performance in the real world. ⁠https://arena.ai/⁠AdQuick - Make your brand a billboard. Out-of-home advertising as easy to scale as digital. https://adquick.comClickhouse - The real-time database that keeps up with all of it. https://clickhouse.com/–Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (01:16) Beyond Chatbots: The Future Human-Machine Interface (02:43) Can AI Learn Taste And Creativity? (06:56) Rethinking Model Architecture For Creative Work (10:12) Canva’s Data Moat Vs. Frontier Labs (14:39) How Creative Professionals Are Adopting AI (17:13) 100x Cheaper AI Video Democratizes Content (22:23) What AI Will Never Replace–Note: This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.

Nate Soares, president of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) and co-author of If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, joins MTS to discuss MIRI’s pivot from technical alignment to public advocacy and their new theater ad campaign, Do Not Accept. He argues that AI labs are building superhuman systems they cannot control, warns that current reactive safety fixes will fail past a critical cognitive threshold, and lays out what would convince him he is wrong about AI extinction risk. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.MTS chronicles the singularity, live. Monitoring the situation of tech and AI.Follow MTS: X | ⁠https://twitter.com/MTSlive⁠YouTube | ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@mtsituation⁠Spotify | ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4HUNNmV1pjV7CW6Lphm1rM⁠ Apple | ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mts/id1891088763⁠ Substack | ⁠https://mtslive.substack.com/⁠–Brought to you by:Mongo DB - Anyone can prototype an agent. Learn how to get them into production on September 30th in New York - register at https://www.mongodb.com/events/mongodb-local/nycChargebee - Billing and monetization infrastructure for the AI era. https://www.chargebee.com/Lovable - Turn ideas into software people love with Lovable. Start today at https://lovable.dev/ElevenLabs -  AI that communicates at human level across every channel and modality. https://elevenlabs.io/mtsFactory - A 24/7 system turning signals into production software. Visit https://factory.com/Neon (by Databricks) - Scale your startup on Neon. The Postgres backend for apps and agents. Built by Databricks. ⁠https://neon.com/mts⁠Today’s stream is sponsored by VCX, the public ticker for private tech. Head over to http://getvcx.com  to learn moreKong - The AI connectivity platform. Connect APIs, LLMs, agents, and systems with serious security and governance. https://konghq.comLarridin - Finally prove what your AI investment is worth. Head to https://larridin.com/ today to start measuring your AI’s bottom line.Blitzy - Autonomous software development for enterprise codebases. Ship 5x faster. https://blitzy.comArena - Measuring AI performance in the real world. ⁠https://arena.ai/⁠AdQuick - Make your brand a billboard. Out-of-home advertising as easy to scale as digital. https://adquick.comClickhouse - The real-time database that keeps up with all of it. https://clickhouse.com/–Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:42) MIRI’s Do Not Accept Ad Campaign (03:36) Preventing AI Safety From Hyperpolarization (07:03) Why MIRI Abandoned Technical Alignment Research (09:24) Smoke Signals Versus an AGI Fire Alarm (15:59) Pitching AI Extinction Risk to Everyday People (21:04) What Would Prove AI Doom Wrong (23:37) Defining the Early Internet Rationality Movement–Note: This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.

Melvin Johnson, VP of research leading Gemini post-training at Google DeepMind, joins MTS to unpack the rapid rollout of the Gemini 4 model family—Argon, Carbon, and today’s workhorse release, Hydrogen. He breaks down how Hydrogen outperforms flagship models on key benchmarks, why Google’s vertical integration with TPUs and massive distribution keeps frontier labs ahead of open-weight models, and where agentic consumer products like Search AI Mode are heading. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.MTS chronicles the singularity, live. Monitoring the situation of tech and AI.Follow MTS: X | ⁠https://twitter.com/MTSlive⁠YouTube | ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@mtsituation⁠Spotify | ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4HUNNmV1pjV7CW6Lphm1rM⁠ Apple | ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mts/id1891088763⁠ Substack | ⁠https://mtslive.substack.com/⁠–Brought to you by:Mongo DB - Anyone can prototype an agent. Learn how to get them into production on September 30th in New York - register at https://www.mongodb.com/events/mongodb-local/nycChargebee - Billing and monetization infrastructure for the AI era. https://www.chargebee.com/Lovable - Turn ideas into software people love with Lovable. Start today at https://lovable.dev/ElevenLabs -  AI that communicates at human level across every channel and modality. https://elevenlabs.io/mtsFactory - A 24/7 system turning signals into production software. Visit https://factory.com/Neon (by Databricks) - Scale your startup on Neon. The Postgres backend for apps and agents. Built by Databricks. ⁠https://neon.com/mts⁠Today’s stream is sponsored by VCX, the public ticker for private tech. Head over to http://getvcx.com  to learn moreKong - The AI connectivity platform. Connect APIs, LLMs, agents, and systems with serious security and governance. https://konghq.comLarridin - Finally prove what your AI investment is worth. Head to https://larridin.com/ today to start measuring your AI’s bottom line.Blitzy - Autonomous software development for enterprise codebases. Ship 5x faster. https://blitzy.comArena - Measuring AI performance in the real world. ⁠https://arena.ai/⁠AdQuick - Make your brand a billboard. Out-of-home advertising as easy to scale as digital. https://adquick.comClickhouse - The real-time database that keeps up with all of it. https://clickhouse.com/–Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:46) The Gemini 4 Model Family (02:52) Google’s Structural Advantages And Strategy (04:55) Frontier Labs Versus Open-Weight Models (07:34) Future Consumer Agentic Products–Note: This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.