Fundstrat's Newton expects the market to melt up another 5% by year's end

Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, says he is optimistic for the rest of 2025, though he expects choppiness as the Standard & Poor's 500 moves toward a year-end target of 6,650. Newton says the economy has been resilient through the headline risks and that the market is in a "Goldilocks state because the Fed is certainly going to cut three times between now and next summer, earnings are coming in good and yet there's still a wall of worry," making for "a very favorable path for investing in the second half of this year." Economist and New York University professor Howard Yaruss says that the economy is entering "literally uncharted territory" when it comes to tariffs, with free international trade being upended by current government policies. Yaruss is worried that the economic impacts of tariffs haven't truly hit yet, but he says the lag is about to end and that means the numbers will start to get ugly and could push the U.S. economy into recession and/or stagflation. In the Market Call, Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co., talks about investing in companies with growing dividends, noting that the growth of the payout is more important to him than a simple high yield number.

Brad Case, chief economist at Middleburg Communities, says that while Americans have been complaining about the housing market and available home stock, the market is not far off from historic norms. That said, he also discussed some recent research he did showing that Americans would be better off renting a home — and investing the savings they get on various aspects of ownership — than they are by tying up the biggest chunk of their monies in a home, which he considers to be an asset that puts up comparatively small gains over long periods of time. David Trainer, president of New Constructs, comes through with an attractive stock selection, picking Halliburton as a company that is likely to benefit from beating earnings soon. The pick follows up on the Danger Zone segment from last week, when Trainer singled out Caesars Entertainment as a stock likely to miss projected earnings and to be punished by the market as a result. Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors, says investors have moved from being highly pessimistic when tariffs were first announced and the market was tanking in April into more of an equilibrium. With the market reaching near record levels, Rotblut says it is a good sign that optimism hasn't completely surged; that said, he noted that investor sentiment is rising, and discussed how AAII is now using sentiment as more of determinant on trading when it moves in ways that might signal a potential market reversal. 

Vincent Randazzo, founder and chief market strategist at ViewRight Advisors, says that while the stock market appears overbought in the short-term — and may need some time to get through it — the longer-term indicators are bullish, and suggest that the rally that has been in place for three years now can continue. Randazzo says that indicators are showing that the market appears to be broadening out, and that improving market participation and improving investor confidence should help power the market through headline risks. In The NAVigator, John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — says he expects three first-half laggards in municipal bonds, senior loans and master limited partnerships to become leaders for the rest of 2025, and suggests attractive options for riding those trends. In the Market Call, Garvin Jabusch, co-founder and chief investment officer at Green Alpha Advisors discusses his efforts to find companies that are truly innovative and driving long-term change rather than riding the coattails of a hot industry or sector.

It's a wide-ranging show today, with Ben Cook, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Energy Transition and Hennessy Mid-Stream funds, giving his latest take on the energy sector, noting that the industry is well-positioned to at least not be hurt while tariff policies play out, even as the U.S. has become the world's largest oil-producing nation and the OPEC nations are looking to improve their fortunes. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, revisits the CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF — which he featured as ETF of the Week at the beginning of March and which gained 78 percent during the second quarter of 2025 — noting that miners and spot crypto funds serve different purposes in a portfolio, but that both are poised for more growth now. Melissa Stephenson discusses her research for Sudokubliss.com that looked at the theme parks that provide good value for your money while keeping lines short enough that complaints are few, and Chuck does a deep dive on the so-called "Trump accounts" that were created within the budget bill that was signed into law last week. These accounts give $1,000 to every baby born in the country to U.S. citizens between 2025 through 2028 — including the grandchild Chuck's daughter is expecting in August — and he talks about the benefits of the program (beyond the cash infusion) and compares it to other savings vehicles.

Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at KraneShares and the author of the China Last Night blog, says that the government of China is "doing the things that Trump wants them to be doing" for domestic policy purposes, which is why he sees the signs of a U.S.-China trade deal in the works. He says in The Big Interview that neither side can win in a trade war, but that both sides can move forward sharply and strongly with agreement, even if tariff levels remain high and in place indefinitely. Ahern says that "the worst is behind us" on dollar weakness, noting that he doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates until later in the year, allowing the dollar to stabilize in the interim while tariff policies are being finalized. Bob Powell, retirement columnist at TheStreet.com discusses government projections showing that standard monthly premiums for Medicare Part B will rise by more than 11 percent in 2026, and will likely be subjected to higher-than-expected increases potentially for the next decade. Plus, Allison Hadley, an analyst at Digital Third Coast, discusses research on  how Americans are using Google in AI mode and how it is changing their search results, how they shop, find advice, access news and more.

Rob Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory Services, says the economy and market have moved off of potential worst-case scenarios into "this manageable camp," where it must get through potholes and uncertainty as the economy "flirts with stall speed" in growth. Still, Williams sees some powerful tailwinds that could drive the market higher in the second half of the year, but the concerns make it that investors should remember that "yield is your friend." "Be fully invested in equities," Williams says, "but don't be stealing from fixed income yet to overload on the equity side. You will want that yield if things get bumpy." Bob Rosen, author of "Detach: Ditch Your Baggage to Live a More Fulfilling Life" discusses how to break away from uncertainty — which he says is a constant in life, and not just present in times like today — to be happy and productive even when conditions make that hard. Plus Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey showing that the tariff uncertainty has made consumers — anticipating price hikes — more interested in earning credit card rewards, and which bonuses consumers find particularly attractive now.

Nick Maggiulli, chief operating officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management — the author of the "Of Dollars and Data" blog — says that while recoveries can happen faster now than in the past due to advances in technology and information, investors who always expect the market to bounce back quickly from any setback have learned the wrong lesson. While he is not calling for a protracted downturn, he is suggesting investors want to protect themselves; to that end, he discusses how proper diversification practically forces individuals to buy and hold something that will lose money, even when everything else is doing well. That makes it hard to do, even if it's the best path. Maggiulli also discusses achieving financial independence — and the mindset to enjoy it — and more. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, resurrects some of the firm's research looking at which stocks are most in jeopardy of an earnings miss when second-quarter numbers are released in the coming weeks, and singles out one well-known gaming stock that he says is due for a miss and a big fall. And in the Market Call, Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments, mixes growth-at-a-reasonable price investing with his long-term thematic approach to the markets.

Jose Torres, senior economist for Interactive Brokers, says that the economy is about to get past tariffs — "the huge negative of the Trump policy mix" — and move to lighter taxation, milder regulations, subdued energy costs, rising factory production and, hopefully, rising employment as well," which creates a bullish outlook for the economy and the stock market into 2026. Torres says he expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates this month and says the central bank has plenty of ammunition to fend off any recessionary pressures left while inflation gets through the initial tariff impacts. Torres noted that IBKR's forecast trader  suggests 25 percent odds that the Fed will trim this month, but he believes that's low and that the Fed has been too tight. Kyle Brown, chief executive officer at Trinity Capital, says government policies have been paying off for business-development companies as the private credit markets have seen a spike in demand as a result of the capital expenditures that American businesses are undertaking in order to achieve the government's near-shoring mandates. He says that private credit providers are well-positioned in the current rate environment, but also could benefit from rate cuts reducing costs. Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a "dividend dogs" fund as his "ETF of the Week."

Herb Greenberg, editor of Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts, tells the story of a stock scam that most recently centered on Ostin Technology, a Chinese company traded on the Nasdaq that recently popped to over $9 per share before losing 95 percent of its value in a single day. While the company is a cautionary tale for investors, Greenberg's bigger warning involves similar frauds that spring up around other companies overnight — that are fueled by investor greed and AI-powered fakery — which he describes as nearly impossible to stop or end in what he calls "the golden age of grift." Financial adviser Anthony Holds discusses the latest release from Northwestern Mutual's 2025 Planning & Progress Study, which showed that nearly 70 percent of Americans say financial uncertainty makes them depressed and anxious. Plus, in the Market Call, Dryden Pence, chief investment officer at Pence Capital Management, talks about finding stocks that benefit from being at the chokepoints in the supply chain for the next big thing.

Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy for Global X ETFs says the fundamentals are strong enough that the market and economy should be in better shape by year's end, provided the wildcards of tariffs and geopolitics don't interfere. Discussing his outlook for the rest of 2025, Helfstein expects different leadership, noting that he favors low-beta strategies, plus the defense technology and cyber-security sectors. Helfstein says that growth stocks are "more profitable than they have ever been," and says that investors who missed out on the artificial-intelligence boom can get in now at valuations that are reasonable because the industry had a recovery since April that was more sluggish than the rest of the market. Susan Fahy discusses the VantageScore Credit Gauge for May, which showed an increase in early-stage delinquencies, including in mortgages, and whether it's a sign that consumers are starting to struggle. Plus Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs for Calamos Investments, discusses the firm's new "autocallable income fund," and how it represents less of a step in the evolution of options-based strategies than a "new asset class" for investors looking for high levels of income.