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Has the RBI tamed inflation?

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Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Tuesday, December 3, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

For over two years, the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee (MPC) has been trying to curb inflation, aiming to stabilise it around 4%. Despite several hikes that raised the repo rate by 250 basis points to 6.5%, the committee has held this rate steady in its last ten reviews, warning of the potential risks of cutting rates too quickly. Recent feedback from Mint's readers shows they have mixed feelings about the MPC's efforts. About 35% of survey participants said the committee hasn't successfully tackled inflation, while 29% believe it has. This survey mainly reflects the views of salaried individuals, so it's not have the full picture, but it does offer a peek into public sentiment. As another decision looms, the majority said it would like lower inflation, even if it means higher interest rates. 

India’s manufacturing activity fell in November, with the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index dropping to 56.5 from 57.5 in October. Harsha Jethmalani writes that this signals weakening demand amid the highest selling prices since 2013. GDP growth was disappointing as well, as we outlined yesterday. Indians aren't shopping much during the festive season in October and November, which is usually when they open their wallets. Expectations for GDP growth have thus been reduced, Harsha writes. However, optimism about future business prospects among manufacturers has risen despite concerns about near-term risks.

India's top ministries are mulling a game-changing proposal: public sector enterprises might soon have to buy at least 10% of their supplies from startups. Sneha Shah and Mihir Mishra write about this move, which is part of a broader strategy to inject vigour into India’s startup scene and could see these young companies stepping into roles typically filled by more established firms. The idea is inspired by the success of initiatives such as Innovations for Defence Excellence, which supports defence startups, and aims to replicate this in various sectors. With the government's yearly budget spending at a hefty ₹48 trillion, even a small mandated percentage for startups could mean big business.

India’s $260 billion IT services sector is seeing a brighter future, thanks in part to rate cuts and increased discretionary spending in the US, its biggest market. Optimism has grown, especially after Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election as his policies, such as corporate tax cuts, are expected to boost spending. Amid a volatile market, IT stocks have stood strong, with the Nifty IT index climbing 32% by late November. This surge is linked to hopes that Trump’s administration will be favourable for IT businesses, explains Shelley Singh. 

A major player in the ATM business wants to go cashless. It sounds strange, but that's what CMS Info Systems wants to do. Its CEO Rajiv Kaul is concerned about the declining use of cash and how that might affect the company. Shayan Ghosh writes that CMS has tried to enter other businesses such as remote ATM monitoring, debt collection and bullion logistics. Digital payments are everywhere, and are up 90% in the past decade. CMS and its top boss are eager to shape the role of cash in an increasingly digital India.

 

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