In this episode of Intel Insights, Cedric Leighton discusses the challenges of predicting major events and the importance of understanding the potential for black swan events. He highlights historical examples of events that were not predicted or were ignored by decision-makers, such as the fall of Saigon and the 9/11 attacks. Leighton explains Nassim Nicholas Taleb's concept of black swan events and the limitations of traditional statistical analysis in predicting rare and impactful events. He emphasizes the need for decision-makers to consider historical precedents, look for big truths beyond statistics, and assess factors such as momentum, ideology, corruption, and popular support when predicting the outcome of conflicts.
Episode Timestamps:
- Examples of major historical events occurring that were not predicted or were ignored {2:23}
- The Black Swan theory {4:59}
- The Ludic fallacy {9:58}
- Decision theory {11:36}
- 5 important things to consider when it comes to the occurrence of major historical events {12:18}
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