In this interview from the 2025 New Orleans Investment Conference, Matt Warder of Seawolf Research lays out a high-level macro view on coal and rare earth markets. He explains how Chinese steel exports have disrupted pricing across both thermal and metallurgical coal, with met coal dropping from 600 to 175. Despite soft prices, coal stocks have sharply outperformed the broader market, benefiting from rising interest in small caps, high short interest, and rare earth exposure. Warder notes that thermal coal is still profitable domestically and points to AI-driven base load demand as a key factor supporting coal and gas going forward.
Connect with Matt Warder!
Twitter: https://x.com/mfwarder
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mfwarder/
Substack: https://substack.com/@seawolfresearch
The discussion then pivots to rare earths with a focus on Ramaco Resources and its Brook Mine in Wyoming, which contains rare earths within its clay zones. Warder highlights the growing importance of Western nations developing complete supply chains from mine to magnet. He introduces his new platform called The Rare Earth Trader, aimed at educating investors on this evolving sector. Topics include the strategic need for vertical integration, government funding trends, and the potential for U.S. processing hubs. Warder also stresses the speculative nature of the space and the need for due diligence as market froth builds across mining and resource equities.
The episode includes technical and fundamental analysis across energy, metals, and equities, plus a preview of Steve's newly released technical analysis video course: https://stevebarton.gumroad.com/l/TechnicalAnalysisforBeginners.
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Key Insights in this episode:
✅ Met coal rebounding toward $200 with support from China
✅ Thermal coal steady but pressured, bottoming near $110 Newcastle
✅ AI-driven power demand keeping U.S. base load generation strong
✅ Natural gas setting the floor for coal prices as winter approaches
✅ U.S. unlikely to build new coal plants but restarts are coming
✅ Ramaco's Brook Mine rare earth potential gaining major traction
✅ Rare earths market still speculative, but vertical integration is key
✅ U.S. building mine-to-magnet supply chain to counter China
✅ Government grants may reshape rare earth economics in 2025
✅ Warder launches "The Rare Earth Trader" to track industry moves
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Key Insights in this episode:
✅ Met coal pushing $200 with China buying
✅ Thermal coal holding near $110
✅ AI boosts U.S. base load power demand
✅ Gas prices support coal into winter
✅ U.S. restarts coal plants instead of building new
✅ Ramaco's Brook Mine rare earths gaining attention
✅ Rare earths still speculative, integration is key
✅ U.S. building supply chain to rival China
✅ Government funding could shift rare earth economics
✅ Warder launches Rare Earth Trader to track the space
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. I only express my opinion based on my experience, and your experience may be different. These videos are for educational and motivational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Do your own due diligence. Every investment and bet comes with the risk that your capital could go to zero.
WHAT I DO: I spread out my investments. It's not all on one thing. For every bet that I make, I devote one hour of study per month to that investment. I keep the number of bets to what I can feasibly study.
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