Episode 169: Mailbag—How To Know When A Prospect Change Is Real

Ben and Carlos talk about the extensions for Mariners shortstop Colt Emerson and Brewers shortstop Cooper Pratt. The two then talk about a few early performing Triple-A hitters, talk through a few of the standouts that Carlos saw in Cary at USA Baseball’s National High School Invitational and then react to the news that Konnor Griffin is being promoted to the majors as the news breaks on the show. –Time Stamps:(1:30) Colt Emerson & Cooper Pratt extensions(9:00) Is the Cooper Pratt deal more surprising?(18:00) False certainty in major league deals(20:30) James Tibbs (27:20) Luis Lara(33:00) NHSI talk(44:00) James Clark(53:00) Reacting to the Konnor Griffin promotion liveDo you have feedback for the show or want to ask us a  question? Email us: [email protected] Projection Twitter: @FutureProPodBen's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Newsletter: Fringe AverageBaseball America WebsiteAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos talk about their impressions of the ABS system in the majors and then crack open the mailbag. The two take a questions about comparing recent top tier college prospects, Elian Pena skipping the FCL, DSL names we’re excited about, bonus pool logistics in the draft and why the first overall pick and other players take underslot deals as well as questions about A’s outfielder Breyson Guedez and Blue Jays prospects JoJo Parker and Juan Sanchez.—Time Stamps:(0:00) Initial ABS talk (8:00) How would you compare Henry Davis, Joey Bart & Vahn Lackey?(15:30) Are you surprised Elian Pena is skipping the FCL?(18:30) Who are some DSL names you’re excited to see this summer?(24:00) Could you explain how bonus pool money works and why players take underslot deals?(32:00) Thoughts on A’s outfielder Breyson Guedez?(35:00) What’s the chatter on Blue Jays prospects JoJo Parker and Juan Sanchez?Do you have feedback for the show or want to ask us a  question? Email us: [email protected] Projection Twitter: @FutureProPodBen's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Newsletter: Fringe AverageBaseball America WebsiteAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos talk about the new trend of teams calling pitches from the dugout in the major leagues and then get into some of the notable action items from spring training. The two gush over what they’ve been seeing from Pirates righty Seth Hernandez and Mariners righty Ryan Sloan, and also talk about what we’ve seen early on from a few other arms and a couple of Brewers bats. After that the two talk about Dylan Crews being optioned to Triple-A and then discuss the most recent draft board update and what best-case scenarios could look like for the Giants and Pirates with the fourth and fifth picks of the draft.–Time Stamps:(2:30) Thoughts on teams calling pitches from the dugout(13:00) Seth Hernandez touching 102(19:00) Ryan Sloan adding more velocity(24:30) Anthony Eyanson(28:40) Kendry Chourio(30:45) Dasan Hill(33:20) Luis Peña & Andrew Fischer(40:00) Are we concerned about Dylan Crews?(47:00) 2026 draft updateDo you have feedback for the show or want to ask us a  question? Email us: [email protected] Projection Twitter: @FutureProPodBen's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Newsletter: Fringe AverageBaseball America WebsiteAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

On today’s mailbag episode, Ben and Carlos take questions on projection vs. present skill for college recruits, Josuar Gonzalez vs. Luis Hernandez for the Giants, fielding percentage as a tool for evaluating college shortstops, Will Gasparino and Mason Edwards and the stats that matter for high school players. —Time Stamps:(0:50) Do college coaches look for projection or present ability? (10:20) Will Josuar Gonzalez or Luis Hernandez be the better long-term Giants SS?(15:00) Is there value in weighing fielding percentage for college shortstops?(20:40) Why no Will Gasparino or Mason Edwards on your recent rising prospects piece?(29:30) What are the stats and numbers that matter for high school players?Do you have feedback for the show or want to ask us a question? Email us: [email protected] Projection Twitter: @FutureProPodBen's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Newsletter: Fringe AverageBaseball America WebsiteAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos give their final thoughts on an epic World Baseball Classic, then turn their eyes towards prospects and spring training. The two talk about some of the top hitters who have played well this spring, plus a couple of notable pitching prospects who might have made key additions to their arsenals for 2026.–Time Stamps:(0:30) Final WBC talk(8:45) Spring training talk(14:20) Jesus Made(18:30) Colt Emerson(27:00) Bryce Eldridge(30:40) Samuel Basallo(33:50) Charlie Condon (50:00) Joshua Baez(53:00) Braden Montgomery(55:00) Sam Antonacci(57:40) Hagen Smith(1:00:45) Didier FuentesDo you have feedback for the show or want to ask us a  question? Email us: [email protected] Projection Twitter: @FutureProPodBen's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Newsletter: Fringe AverageBaseball America WebsiteAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos break open the listener mailbag and answer questions on a trio of young Cardinals shortstops, why Brady Harris might be slipping in the draft and how his risk and upside compares to Kevin Roberts Jr., whether or not Elian Pena has a chance to be a top 25 prospect and what changes we would make to the draft broadcast. —Time Stamps:(1:20) Can you compare and contrast Yairo Padilla, Miguel Hernandez & Sebastian Dos Santos?(6:50) Why is Brady Harris slipping and how does his risk compare to Kevin Roberts Jr.?(13:10) Will Mets SS Elian Pena be a top 25 prospect this time next year?(16:15) What changes would you guys make to the draft presentation?Do you have feedback for the show or want to ask us a  question? Email us: [email protected] Projection Twitter: @FutureProPodBen's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Newsletter: Fringe AverageBaseball America WebsiteAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos talk about the World Baseball Classic and the drama surrounding team USA. After that, they compare and contrast some of the top college outfielders in the 2026 draft class. Why is Ben so high on Virginia’s AJ Gracia? And why can Carlos not quit on LSU’s Derek Curiel? Those two, plus thoughts on Sawyer Strosnider and Drew Burress—plus a few comments on his Georgia Tech teammate Vahn Lackey skyrocketing with more power this spring. –Time Stamps:(2:00) A valid Team USA critique and a non-valid critique(18:30) College outfield talk begins(21:00) AJ Gracia(25:00) Sawyer Strosnider(30:00) Derek Curiel(38:30) How would we line up the outfield group?(45:00) Thoughts on Georgia Tech’s Vahn LackeyDo you have feedback for the show or want to ask us a question? Email us: [email protected] Projection Twitter: @FutureProPodBen's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Newsletter: Fringe AverageBaseball America WebsiteAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos answer listener questions about how we know when to re-adjust expectations for prospects and the difference in value between center fielders and shortstops.—Time Stamps:(3:00) How do you know if a player is hitting a high percentile outcome vs. adjusting possible expectations?(8:00) Why it’s hard to deal with specific percentile projections(16:00) Why approach changes are incremental(18:00) Being skeptical of surface level results with no process changes(25:00) How much more do teams value shortstops vs. center fielders?Do you have feedback for the show or want to ask us a  question? Email us: [email protected] Projection Twitter: @FutureProPodBen's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Newsletter: Fringe AverageBaseball America WebsiteAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos talk about a double first base bag dilemma that surfaced in college baseball, then get into some spring training prospect talk. Should Kevin McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt make opening day rosters? Is Orioles outfielder Vance Honeycutt starting to figure something out? They talk about other names like Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, Charlie Condon, Sam Antonacci, Justin Crawford, JR Ritchie and then get into some brief week three college baseball and draft talk. —Time stamps:(0:30) A college double first base bag dilemma(10:00) Spring training talk(14:15) Does Kevin McGonigle make the opening day roster?(20:50) JJ Wetherholt and the Cardinals(25:40) The looming CBA negotiations(29:00) The merits of a college baseball system(31:30) Is Vance Honeycutt figuring it out?(36:15) Red Sox lefties Payton Tolle & Connelly Early(39:20) Charlie Condon(46:15) Sam Antonacci(51:50) Justin Crawford(55:55) JR Ritchie(59:00) Week three draft talkDo you have feedback for the show or want to ask us a  question? Email us: [email protected] Projection Twitter: @FutureProPodBen's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Newsletter: Fringe AverageBaseball America WebsiteAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos open up the listener mailbag and take questions on a number of draft topics including: prep sleepers who could be first rounders; Ace Reese’s defensive profile; Konnor Griffin’s impact on scouting; who our favorite prospect in the class is after Roch Cholowsky and Grady Emerson; Derek Curiel’s lack of power; and whether or not teams care about the pick order when they are picking back-to-back. —Time Stamps:(0:50) Who are some sleeper prep names who could be first rounders?(8:20) What do you think about Ace Reese’s upside and defensive profile?(12:45) How did so many teams miss on Konnor Griffin and how does that change scouting for 2026?(20:30) Who is your current No. 3 prospect after Roch Cholowsky and Grady Emerson?(25:20) Where does Derek Curiel fit in the draft given his lack of power?(31:40) How do teams decide who to pick first when they have back-to-back picks?Do you have feedback for the show or want to ask us a  question? Email us: [email protected] Projection Twitter: @FutureProPodBen's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Newsletter: Fringe AverageBaseball America WebsiteAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy