How High Could Oil Prices Go?

Crude and gas prices are soaring after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure amid war in the Middle East. How bad could the energy shock get and for how long? FP columnist Jason Bordoff sits down with Ravi Agrawal to discuss. Bordoff previously served in the Obama administration as a senior director for energy and climate change in the National Security Council. He is also the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy Jason Bordoff and Erica Downs: How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance Keith Johnson: Iran Is Putting a ‘Toll Booth’ in the Strait of Hormuz Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates Keith Johnson: Europe and the U.S. Still Haven’t Choked Off Russia’s Energy Riches Maisoon H. Kafafy: Empty Words Don’t Open Straits Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s widely accepted that the post-WWII order has changed, but the question remains—what comes next? Political scientist Hal Brands maps out three possible scenarios in a cover essay for Foreign Policy’s latest print issue and joins FP Live to discuss.  Brands is a professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and the author of The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World. Hal Brands: Three Scenarios for a Post-Trump World Emma Ashford: A Better Trans-Atlantic Relationship Is Entirely Possible Sarang Shidore: Can Middle Powers Gel? Suzanne Nossel: What Would an Abundance Foreign Policy Look Like? Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s no secret that democracy is in trouble. Studies show that a growing number of countries are less free, and polls suggest ordinary citizens are losing faith in their governments. What can be done to fix this? Hélène Landemore has a radical solution: to get rid of politicians and electoral politics and instead create assemblies of ordinary citizens. She explores this concept in her new book, Politics Without Politicians: The Case for Citizen Rule, and joins FP Live to interrogate the idea.  Hélène Landemore: The Problem With Representative Democracy Nicholas Bequelin: The Age of Defensive Democracy Hélène Landemore: More Power to More People Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the war in Iran soon enters its third week, two experts join FP Live for a debate. Were the United States and Israel justified in attacking Iran? And will the war advance U.S. interests in the region, or set them back? Trita Parsi and Matthew Kroenig sit down with executive editor Dan Ephron to discuss. Parsi is the executive vice president at the Quincy Institute, and Kroenig is an FP columnist and a senior director at the Atlantic Council. Trita Parsi: Iran’s Despair Is U.S. Policy Matthew Kroenig: The Case for Destroying Iran’s Nuclear Program Now Matthew Kroenig: Why a Wider War with Iran Is Unlikely Matthew Kroenig: Trump Made History. Now the Iranian People Can, Too. Michael Hirsh: So This, Finally, Is the ‘Trump Doctrine’ John Haltiwanger: The Trump Administration’s Iran War Justifications Keep Changing Suzanne Nossel: It’s Time to Retire the Pottery Barn Rule Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the United States and Israel attack military facilities across Iran, Tehran has been retaliating. But it has attacked Gulf countries more than it has targeted Israel. Why? And how will the likes of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates respond? Will it shift their geopolitical alignment away from the United States? Regional experts Mina al-Oraibi, the editor in chief of the National, and Firas Maksad, a managing director at the Eurasia Group, join FP Live to share their perspectives. Khalid al-Jaber and Omar H. Rahman: Security Alliances With the U.S. Have Made Gulf States More Vulnerable David Petraeus and Clara Kaluderovic: The Drone Attrition Trap Macdonald Amoah, Morgan D. Bazilian, and Jahara Matisek: The First 36 Hours of War Consumed Over 3,000 U.S.-Israeli Munitions Firas Maksad: The Middle East Has Two New Rival Teams Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On Saturday, Israel and the United States struck Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran has been responding with volleys of missiles aimed at Israel—and also at several other countries in the region. How will the conflict end? How long can Tehran sustain this fight? Iran expert Vali Nasr joined Ravi Agrawal for an emergency episode that ran live on the afternoon of Monday, March 3.  Daniel Byman: 6 Questions About Operation Epic Fury Barbara Slavin: Death Comes to the Dictator Ali Hashem: Iran Is Built to Withstand the Ayatollah’s Assassination Alireza Nader and Nik Kowsar: Khamenei Is Dead. Who’s In Charge of Iran? Amos C. Fox and Franz-Stefan Gady: Iran, Israel, and the U.S. Are Racing the Clock Anchal Vohra: Iran’s Proxies Are Out for Themselves for Now Emma Ashford: Trump Is Betraying His Base by Waging War on Iran Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As U.S. President Donald Trump considers a military strike on Iran, what are the options on his table? What will his military advisors recommend he should and shouldn’t do? David Petraeus has often been in the position of providing such advice to the White House, and he joins FP Live to explain what could happen in the coming days. Petraeus ran U.S. and allied forces in the Middle East as the head of Central Command (CENTCOM) and later ran the CIA.  Plus, One Thing from Ravi on the fourth anniversary of the war in Ukraine. FP Contributors: Four Years of War in Europe Marc Lynch: Four Scenarios for a Postwar Iran Arash Reisinezhad and Arsham Reisinezhad: What War With Iran Would Look Like Ali Hashem: The United States Is Dangerously Misreading Iran Ali Hashem: Iran Dangerously Misunderstands Its Situation Brought to you by: quince.com/fplive Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump’s China policy often seems deliberately ambiguous. Is that a virtue or a flaw? Kurt Campbell is a longtime China watcher who rose up to run Asia policy under the Biden administration. He was the original architect of the so-called “pivot to Asia” during the Obama administration. He joins FP Live to discuss Trump, former U.S. President Joe Biden, and the world’s most important bilateral relationship.   Plus, One Thing from Ravi on Trump’s Board of Peace. ⁠Aaron David Miller: Billions in Pledges Expected for Trump’s Board of Peace but Doubts Persist⁠ ⁠Mira Rapp-Hooper and Ely Ratner: Washington’s Silence in Asia Is a Gift to Beijing⁠ ⁠New York Times: On China, Trump Is Rolling the Dice on America’s Future⁠ ⁠Foreign Affairs: The U.S.-China Crisis Waiting to Happen⁠ ⁠A. Wess Mitchell: The Grand Strategy Behind Trump’s Foreign Policy⁠ ⁠Craig Singleton: China Grapples with Trump’s Radical Use of Power⁠ ⁠Lili Pike: Did Biden Get China Right?⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is the age of nuclear nonproliferation over? There are certainly worrying signs. New START, the main nuclear treaty between the United States and Russia, recently expired. China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. Talks to bring Iran back to the negotiating table seem to be at an impasse. And one increasingly hears about the possibility of South Korea or Japan going nuclear. What can the world do in response? Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, sits down with Ravi Agrawal. Rebecca Lissner and Erin D. Dumbacher: The Pillars of the Global Nuclear Order Are Cracking Decker Eveleth: The Real Risk After New START Isn’t Arms Racing Fareed Zakaria: The Post-Cold War Nuclear Era Might Have Just Ended Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: An Oil Deal for Trump Can Mean a Nuclear Deal for Iran Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Pentagon’s policy chief Elbridge Colby recently called for a “NATO 3.0”, stating that the United States would “continue to provide the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent” to Europe, but when it came to most defense matters, Europe would need to “assume primary responsibility.” Colby is the undersecretary of war for policy and joins FP Live host Ravi Agrawal at the annual Munich Security Conference. And in part two of this podcast, Colby and Agrawal were joined by four other guests: Richard Marles, the deputy prime minister and defense minister of Australia; Judith Collins, the minister of defense of New Zealand; Toshimitsu Motegi, the foreign minister of Japan; and David van Weel, the foreign minister of the Netherlands.  Plus, One Thing from Ravi on U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech at the Munich Security Conference.  Listen to Munich Moments on Apple or Spotify. A transcript of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s 2025 speech at the Munich Security Conference. A transcript of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 2026 speech at the Munich Security ConferenceA transcript of Colby’s interview with Ravi A collection of FP’s reporting and analysis from the Munich Security Conference Matthew Kroenig: Two Cheers for the National Security Strategy A. Wess Mitchell: The Grand Strategy Behind Trump’s Foreign Policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices