FIDF LIVE SPECIAL BRIEFING - Jonathan Schanzer, Foundation for Defense Democracies - 4.12.26

Lara Krinsky opens the briefing by saying the week’s “pause” feels less like an ending and more like a setup, and she brings on Jonathan Schanzer (FDD) to explain the contradictory messaging and whether the ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon can hold. He argues the U.S.-Israel conventional campaign badly weakened Iran, but warns the regime is using the lull to rearm—refurbishing missile launchers and seeking Chinese inputs like drone parts and chemical precursors—raising the odds of renewed fighting. Schanzer says the bigger complication is Iran’s asymmetric “economic war” through the Strait of Hormuz, which spiked energy prices and pushed Trump toward a ceasefire to stabilize markets. He describes the U.S. response as “Operation Economic Fury,” centered on a blockade and expanded sanctions meant to choke Iran’s oil revenues—potentially costing the regime hundreds of millions per day—while leaving Israel watching from the wings. On Lebanon, he highlights a new tension point: pressure from Iran and others to fold Lebanon into the ceasefire, Trump publicly telling Israel to stop bombing, and Israel’s concern that delays benefit Hezbollah after major mobilization. He closes by saying the coming weeks hinge on whether Iran’s economic coercion forces U.S. choices, whether the Iranian people can unify if a “phase two” emerges, and whether Israel can seize a rare diplomatic opening with Lebanon without letting Hezbollah regroup.

In this IDF Live briefing, Krinsky speaks with Jonathan Schanzer (FDD) about how the conflict whiplashed from full-scale attacks into a shaky ceasefire and then into “no man’s land,” with talks in Islamabad collapsing almost immediately. Schanzer says the ceasefire was never built on shared terms—Washington framed it as a conditional pause tied to opening the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran sold it domestically as a victory that would bring sanctions relief—making a durable deal unlikely from the start. He flags Pakistan’s role as a strange and shaky broker, and argues the bigger story is that all sides are using the lull to rearm, with Russia/China reportedly helping Iran while Israel worries about finite missile-defense interceptors and whether Iran can reopen “missile cities” and surge launches again. The most dangerous fuse, he warns, is the Strait of Hormuz: mines, shore-fired threats, and an emerging “toll booth” logic could revive an energy-and-markets war that forces the U.S. into hard choices—double down or leave—depending largely on Trump’s next call. He also stresses Israel is fighting a grinding multi-front war and is now pushing hard in Lebanon to clear Hezbollah away from the border and create a buffer zone, even as unprecedented direct Lebanon–Israel discussions are hinted at under U.S. auspices. The episode ends with the core uncertainty still unresolved—whether this is a pause before round two and whether U.S. and Israeli objectives remain fully aligned—followed by a reminder that “reality vs. distortion” is part of the fight and a call to support soldiers and reservists through FIDF.

Lara Krinsky opens the Passover/Easter briefing by calling the moment a live strategic shift across Iran and Lebanon, then interviews Maj. Gen. Nadav Padan, a 40-year IDF veteran and FIDF CEO, on the doctrine and reality of the war. He argues war isn’t about “killing the last missile,” but about building momentum—and says U.S. and Israeli forces are fighting daily to sustain air superiority over Iran while repeatedly striking air defenses and underground ballistic-missile complexes that keep trying to regenerate. Padan lays out three endgame paths and warns that both a long war of attrition and a deal that relaxes sanctions are bad outcomes, because economic pressure is what most plausibly destabilizes the regime and limits its ability to fund proxies. He says Iran wants the fighting to stop but won’t truly capitulate, predicting the conflict is more likely to conclude in “weeks,” either through a negotiated exit or a coalition declaration that forces Iran to absorb damage and stand down. On the northern front, he describes Hezbollah as still capable of launching rockets but far weaker—struggling to pay salaries, facing Shiite public backlash and massive displacement—and he also addresses Iran’s use of cluster-style warheads and how the global media environment shapes what gets attention. Krinsky closes by spotlighting a dramatic “no one left behind” rescue of downed U.S. F-15 pilots as a symbol of operational coordination, then pivots to a call to support reservists and families—especially recovery, reintegration, and PTSD care—through FIDF.

Lara Krinsky opens this IDF Live briefing by framing the moment as both ancient and immediate—a fight not only on the battlefield, but over narrative, legitimacy, and truth—then welcomes Maj. (Res.) Doron Spielman, author and former VP of the City of David. Doron argues we’re living through tectonic, WWII-scale shifts, and describes a new kind of warfare in which Israel and the U.S. are executing thousands of intelligence-grade, pinpoint strikes over 2,000 miles away to target IRGC leadership, missile infrastructure, and command networks. He stresses that Iran’s ballistic missiles are especially dangerous because they’re the delivery system for a potential nuclear warhead, and says Iran’s strategy is to wear down Israeli civilians with nightly attacks while it still can. He adds that Tehran is also trying to destabilize surrounding Arab states and weaponize the Strait of Hormuz as a global energy choke point—moves he says are backfiring by pushing regional actors closer to the U.S. and exposing Europe’s weakness and indecision. Doron frames President Trump’s “America First” posture as a paradigm shift toward confronting hostile regimes and dictating hard terms—dismantle Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, stop funding proxies, and neutralize Iran’s Hormuz leverage—while warning Israel must still build greater long-term military independence in case future U.S. politics change. Looking ahead, he says regime change in Iran could be slow and bloody but momentum is building across multiple fronts (from Lebanon’s push toward the Litani to interdicting weapons routes via Syria), and he closes by tying it to Passover’s core lesson: the Jewish people endure by telling the freedom story—and Israel may emerge from this conflict as an uncontested regional power with major new diplomatic and economic opportunities.

Lara Krinsky opens the briefing by saying the headlines only capture a fraction of what’s really happening, then brings on Dr. Mordechai Kedar to explain why Iran’s behavior in the fourth week of the war looks increasingly irrational. He argues Iran is deliberately widening the conflict beyond Israel and the U.S.—hitting Gulf states and other regional targets—because the regime is driven by an apocalyptic Twelver-Shia worldview that seeks chaos rather than normal self-preservation. Kedar warns that Europe is “sleepwalking” even as Iran demonstrates missile ranges that could threaten major European capitals, and he notes the striking imbalance that Gulf countries have absorbed far more Iranian fire than Israel while still hesitating to join the fight. He explains that their restraint is rooted in fear: they don’t trust the U.S. to finish the job, and they dread a scenario where the regime survives, humiliated, and later retaliates against them. On regime stability, he says Iran can survive without an air force or navy as long as its internal security forces remain cohesive, and he floats a path to lasting containment by backing ethnic militias to seize Iran’s oil-and-gas western corridor, cutting off the regime’s revenue and capacity to rebuild. He closes by touching on Qatar’s risky history of dependence on Iran, downplaying Iranian claims of breakthroughs against Israel’s defenses (including arguing the Dimona core is deeply underground), and warning that a “new Middle East” could still bring fresh threats—especially from Turkey’s ambitions and a future Palestinian state that could again fall to Hamas.

In this week's FIDF briefing, host Lara Krinsky, FIDF Director of Content and Production, welcomes Jonathan Schanzer (FDD), Executive Director of the Foundation for Defense Democracies, to discuss the ongoing war between Israel, the United States, and Iran. Jonathan provides a detailed analysis about the unprecedented military collaboration between the U.S. and Israel, the potential outcomes of this war for Iran and the region, and how this conflict compares to similar military endeavors from the recent past. He discusses the challenges that lay ahead for Israel and the U.S. as well as the potential benefits. Lara and Jonathan then analyze various potential paths forward and what impact this may have on American, Israeli, and global societies.Donate NOW at FIDF.org for the fastest and most direct way to give IDF Soldiers what they need most. 100% of your contribution will go to meet their emergency humanitarian needs.

In this FIDF briefing, host Laura Krinsky interviews former Israeli public diplomacy chief Gadi Levi about where the war stands and what may come next. He argues Hamas is not dismantled—still armed, still controlling large parts of Gaza outside Israel’s “Yellow Line”—and warns that “postwar” structures could simply rebrand Hamas control under the optics of Palestinian sovereignty. He says the key challenge is political as much as military: Israel needs clear, objective criteria (agreed with the United States) for what “dismantling Hamas” actually means before moving into the next phase, especially as he describes Hamas openly re-arming and IDF units still taking daily threats. The conversation then pivots to Iran, where he frames the risk of escalation as hinging largely on Donald Trump, outlines U.S. incentives for regional stability versus Iran’s survival-driven negotiating posture, and stresses Israel’s heightened readiness while acknowledging the uncertainty and potential chaos of regime collapse scenarios. He also treats Ramadan as a long-term strategic “incitement problem,” arguing Israel should aim to change the broader perception that violence is legitimized during the month by tackling propaganda and incitement year-round, not just adding forces for a few weeks. The briefing closes on the soldier perspective—exhaustion mixed with resolve and debate about strategy—underscored by the recent loss of a soldier from his unit, and a direct appeal for diaspora support as part of a shared Zionist project.

In this FIDF IDF Live briefing, host Laura Krinsky speaks with Sgt. First Class Kelly Kobani from the Israel Defense Forces Spokesperson’s Unit about the “eighth front”: the media, legitimacy, and narrative war surrounding the fighting. Kobani describes a “post-truth” environment where false claims can reach millions within minutes, forcing a constant tradeoff between speed and accuracy as information must be verified through multiple layers before it can be released. She argues Hamas leverages an echo chamber—seed a story, then watch institutions like the United Nations and outlets such as CNN, BBC, and The New York Times amplify it—while Israel lacks comparable “validators.” She notes that even with a huge communications operation (press queries, delegations, multilingual platforms), constraints like notifying families before confirming casualties and framing choices by outlets like the Associated Press often mean Israel is fighting after a narrative has already hardened. Strategically, her team triages which “fires” to engage, uses influencers/third parties and targeted exclusives, tailors messaging to Israeli/global/Arabic audiences, and experiments with innovation—especially Gen Z outreach via YouTube and more personal, “authentic” storytelling. The episode closes with a direct call for supporters to help “rebrand” soldiers by sharing human stories and backing FIDF’s work supporting troops’ physical, mental, and emotional needs—because when Israel’s defenders are supported, Israel’s voice has a better chance in the legitimacy fight.

In this week's FIDF briefing, host Lara Krinsky, FIDF Director of Content and Production, welcomes Jonathan Schanzer (FDD), Executive Director of the Foundation for Defense Democracies, who maps the IDF's “strategic chessboard." Schanzer argues the region is nearing a peak moment in a conflict driven by Iran and its proxies, pointing to renewed unrest inside Iran amid economic freefall, regime crackdowns, and reports of mass violence, all in the shadow of recent direct Israel–Iran confrontation and U.S. pressure. He says the massive U.S. force posture in the region suggests real readiness for action, but emphasizes that outcomes are hard to predict because so much hinges on President Trump’s next move. The discussion then shifts to the risk of a wider “ring of fire” response—whether Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, the Houthis, and other proxies might attempt a saturation-style missile campaign—and what that would demand from Israel’s layered defenses. Gaza is treated as a diminished battlefield in this scenario, with attention moving to “phase two” plans for the strip’s future and the unresolved question of hostages, while Schanzer repeatedly flags Qatar and Turkey as dangerous actors shaping postwar arrangements. The host closes with a blunt call to action: stay informed, speak up, and materially support the soldiers carrying the burden of deterrence through FIDF.

This briefing kicks off FIDF’s first episode of 2026 with host Laura speaking to Maj. Gen. Nadav Hadad about a volatile, “historic year already unfolding” and what it means for Israel’s security. They start with Iran’s unrest—women protesting, economic collapse, and signs of broader labor participation—while Hadad cautions that the regime’s layered security forces make an actual overthrow hard to predict. The conversation widens to Hezbollah and Lebanon, arguing that Iran’s financial pressure and disrupted money pipelines (including laundering routes tied to South America) could weaken Hezbollah’s posture, but that Israel still has to act frequently to prevent rebuilds near the border. Hadad then lays out a 2026 reality in which Israel’s borders remain unstable—Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Judea/Samaria—requiring heavy troop presence, reduced training time, and a major reservist burden that also strains the economy. On modern warfare, he credits Israeli/U.S. technological superiority but stresses that “boots on the ground” and the quality of soldiers and commanders remain decisive. The briefing closes with a call for American Jewish unity and tangible support through FIDF—especially expanded programs for reservists, families, and wounded soldiers, including mental health and PTSD—framing the mission as “their job is to protect Israel; ours is to look after them.”